March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[NJwx85]

8 hours ago, snow1 said:

That’s what he doesn’t understand! Keeps talking about the track but there is no cold air did snow

Because he doesn’t know what he’s looking at and doesn’t understand that blocking doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to snow. Sure it increases the odds of a big storm, but without cold air it’s mostly or all rain, especially for the coast. 

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs has a beautiful track but warm for the coast

 

Have to see the members 

 

I had a feeling it was going to come in further south. I wouldn't be shocked to see it come even further south. The models always have a hard time with  blocking. I have and still do believe that the models will also adjust colder as time goes on. I see this storm as a rain to snow event for our area.

Further south is meaningless on its own. Eventually that becomes a problem from lower precip rates. Hate to keep driving this in, but we near the coast need great upper air support to just get a period of snow out of this. The deep easterly flow kills us more than it would a place like Boston because of warmer water down here, and the initial primary drives the warm air in to start. Plus there’s no appreciable cold air source since the PV is on the other side of the pole and the airmass is Pacific origin. 

Again I won’t rule out a period of accumulating snow in NYC or the coast if that upper air support does happen, but it’ll be a miracle if it’s significant. The signs point much more toward a high elevation inland snow at this latitude and a general snow event further north in New England where the easterly flow doesn’t torch like here and the primary won’t have as much an influence. Sucks but that’s why climo is what it is. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, snow1 said:

That’s what he doesn’t understand! Keeps talking about the track but there is no cold air did snow

Track is very important. The models are still struggling with the track and strength. There is no cold air now but we are still 5 days out . The pattern is a good one for snow.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Because he doesn’t know what he’s looking at and doesn’t understand that blocking doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to snow. Sure it increases the odds of a big storm, but without cold air it’s mostky or all rain, especially for the coast. 

Like you do ?

How was your call with the last storm ? I think I got it right.

So far the models are tending south but no cold air atm.

[MJO812]

Gefs looks good for storm 2

Plenty of cold air around

[jm1220]

Also, cold rain vs snow doesn’t mean it’ll be any less of an impactful storm. Winds to 50 mph or more over multiple high tides and flooding rain will mean severe impacts for this subforum. No one is downplaying that there’ll be a storm. 

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It doesn’t matter how far South the track is, there is no injection of cold air to speak of.

Yea, it’s kind of hard to snow when there’s no cold air, like not even up into Quebec. I guess some don’t grasp this concept. Going south isn’t going to make that fact disappear 

[Animal]

Both Upton & Mt Holly afd mention snow for the interior & higher terrain.

upton goes as far to mention plowable snow.

rain to a thump of snow.

[MJO812]

Every model is trending further south and east for storm 1. Too bad there isn't alot of cold air around. This could have been a huge snowstorm 

[MJO812]

Every model is trending further south and east for storm 1. Too bad there isn't alot of cold air around. This could have been a huge snowstorm 

[LurkerBoy]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Every model is trending further south and east for storm 1. Too bad there isn't alot of cold air around. This could have been a huge snowstorm 

Rain? 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Rain? 

Yes right now

[weatherlogix]

10 hours ago, Cfa said:

How did Dec 1992 compare to Mar 2010 in the wind department?

I remember being stuck in traffic on the GWB (Manhattan-bound) during Mar 2010, the winds were so ferocious the front of our minivan was lifting off of the road. Very scary being in the outer lane (and sitting in the front passenger seat), looking down at the black, choppy Hudson River.

I remember that storm (Dec 11-12 1992) as being the first storm of my adult life (I was 19) that caused havoc without any real snow (subsequently I received 3-4" of snow in Queens the following Saturday morning). I remember driving home from open ice hockey in Long Beach very late thursday night/early friday morning and thinking I must be crazy for being out in this storm and wind. Watching TV on Friday and seeing the east river flowing onto the FDR/Harlem River Drive was a new experience. Even during Hurricane Gloria nothing like that happened....That storm seems to have been the trailblazer for many storms since that are talked about.

[NJwx85]

7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Track is very important. The models are still struggling with the track and strength. There is no cold air now but we are still 5 days out . The pattern is a good one for snow.

I was correct and I know what I’m looking at. You say it yourself, there’s no cold air right now, like it’ll magically appear. That’s called wishcasting.

[Brian5671]

Just now, LurkerBoy said:

This winter sucks lol

2nd half has been brutal.   Phantom cold patterns, record rains and close to zero cold...

[MJO812]

Just now, LurkerBoy said:

This winter sucks lol

It's average but I think we will get more snow.

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All we need is a 3 foot tidal surge to coincide with the full moon spring tide to get to low end major coastal flooding levels like March 2010.

That storm was wicked here

The belt parkway flooded and very gusty winds.

[Dan76]

This board doesn't go back far enough for the march '10 storm goes to NOV

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

57 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's average but I think we will get more snow.

I suppose if you take the averages for Dec 1 through Feb 25 temperatures and snowfall are about average, but let's face it since about Jan 9th temperatures have been absurdly above normal and when it does snow even up here it's been gone within the week if not sooner. Not my kind of winter.

[nzucker]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I suppose if you take the averages for Dec 1 through Feb 25 temperatures and snowfall are about average, but let's face it since about Jan 9th temperatures have been absurdly above normal and when it does snow even up here it's been gone within the week if not sooner. Not my kind of winter.

Yes, once the arctic cold disappeared on 1/10, winter's back was broken. It has been an absolute TORCH since then. February should finish +7 at least. Awful month. And still no cold air on the map despite a record AO block.

[NJwx85]

30 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

This board doesn't go back far enough for the march '10 storm goes to NOV

Might have been the strongest winds locally outside of Sandy in recent history. Many trees came down thanks to the strong winds and saturated soil. The river flooding was major because the 4"+ of rain combined with runoff from the snowicane. Even though most of the snowpack was gone locally, places to the North and West still had substantial cover and reservoirs were at capacity.

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Yes, once the arctic cold disappeared on 1/10, winter's back was broken. It has been an absolute TORCH since then. February should finish +7 at least. Awful month. And still no cold air on the map despite a record AO block.

We did get some snow last week but a warm month

[donsutherland1]

57 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

This board doesn't go back far enough for the march '10 storm goes to NOV

Some photos in the wake of the March 2010 storm:

[gravitylover]

I drove home from the city that night in March '10 and it was pretty scary at times. Trees were just flopping over on the Sprain Brook and Taconic, the secondary roads were littered with debris and the smaller roads were nearly impassable in spots. I kept wondering when a branch was going to come through the windshield or a tree was going to land on the car and take me out.

[NJwx85]

Top Analogs at 96hrs over the East coast.

DATE	300HGHT	500HGHT	850HGHT	850SPED	PMSL	THICK	850TMP	2mTMP	PWTR	925MIXR	2mDWP	F084	F096	F108	FINAL
19980409/1800	0.697	0.629	0.594	0.832	0.846	0.789	0.903	0.356	0.921	0.925	0.897	12.769	11.408	8.995	11.057
20050323/1800	0.705	0.673	0.470	0.700	0.774	0.813	0.916	0.645	0.928	0.860	0.824	11.911	11.023	9.247	10.727
20130208/1200	0.655	0.502	0.381	0.666	0.838	0.791	0.861	0.691	0.886	0.871	0.748	10.627	10.385	10.876	10.629
19800331/1200	0.633	0.599	0.802	0.810	0.917	0.809	0.880	0.844	0.848	0.891	0.917	8.943	12.325	9.913	10.394
20070214/0600	0.677	0.671	0.698	0.710	0.720	0.640	0.789	0.626	0.903	0.804	0.729	11.056	10.955	8.803	10.271
19910314/0600	0.467	0.488	0.513	0.654	0.679	0.555	0.791	0.532	0.803	0.777	0.662	10.277	9.517	10.562	10.119
19840328/1800	0.760	0.661	0.632	0.808	0.813	0.740	0.865	0.658	0.892	0.849	0.792	12.363	11.448	6.499	10.103
20040316/1800	0.712	0.628	0.549	0.757	0.805	0.743	0.804	0.730	0.907	0.840	0.803	10.909	11.019	7.976	9.968
20010305/0000	0.574	0.620	0.727	0.697	0.785	0.642	0.824	0.770	0.872	0.813	0.804	11.098	11.220	7.494	9.937
19830207/0600	0.794	0.744	0.437	0.533	0.844	0.674	0.795	0.528	0.834	0.831	0.662	11.282	10.175	7.552	9.670
20010330/0600	0.574	0.605	0.556	0.584	0.796	0.778	0.905	0.767	0.888	0.865	0.861	11.249	11.063	5.828	9.380
20130227/0600	0.617	0.758	0.866	0.772	0.887	0.690	0.783	0.688	0.829	0.836	0.778	8.967	11.856	6.951	9.258
20070316/1800	0.488	0.500	0.492	0.651	0.735	0.651	0.726	0.748	0.846	0.795	0.795	11.083	9.932	6.664	9.226
19800314/0000	0.804	0.791	0.625	0.617	0.796	0.684	0.837	0.678	0.752	0.812	0.736	9.782	11.029	6.250	9.020
20050228/1800	0.531	0.675	0.500	0.589	0.754	0.553	0.780	0.677	0.851	0.777	0.674	9.452	9.918	7.388	8.919

ENSO Phase Occurring with Analog: Warm , Cold , and Neutral

[Cfa]

13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I think Mar 2010 was worse in my area. There was massive tree damage on the South Shore, and parts of Long Beach had no power for a week. Luckily not much tidal flooding but about 5” of rain worsened the tree damage. Winds around here gusted over 75 mph. There was a constant roar at the height of it, flashes from transformers and the sound of sirens responding to damage. Dec 1992 may have been a little lower wind wise but the flooding was worse. 

I lived in Jamaica (near JFK) at the time and I remember the severity of the tree damage the morning after. It rivaled Sandy. Trees were literally all over the place, dangling on power lines, laid in the street, some even looked as if they exploded at their base.

I’d estimate that my old neighborhood lost roughly 30-35% of its trees in the 2.5 year span that featured March 2010, Irene, Sandy, and “Athena”.

 

[nzucker]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Only analogs that should be used are la nina years - plus that chart only goes back to 1980 - plenty of storms before that are better analogs

Looks like V-Day 2007 and St. Patty's Day 2007 are on the list...both were huge storms at Middlebury...24" snow in the former and about a foot in the latter.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Looks like V-Day 2007 and St. Patty's Day 2007 are on the list...both were huge storms at Middlebury...24" snow in the former and about a foot in the latter.

The analogs support a significant snowfall for the interior, particularly North of 84 and West of 87.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

17 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I lived in Jamaica (near JFK) at the time and I remember the severity of the tree damage the morning after. It rivaled Sandy. Trees were literally all over the place, dangling on power lines, laid in the street, some even looked as if they exploded at their base.

I’d estimate that my old neighborhood lost roughly 30-35% of its trees in the 2.5 year span that featured March 2010, Irene, Sandy, and “Athena”.

 

Same in my area but closer to 50%. Sandy definitly caused the most tree damage. Followed by March 10. Even Irene took down a few big ones. We lost more trees in those few years then all the other 33 years I have lived here combined. There just aren’t that many left down here on the direct south shore. This mitigates any potential damage from the coming storm. 

One thing to consider is saturated ground which can in itself cause tree damage with even low end high winds. 

[NJwx85]

This storm is looking less and less impressive with each passing model run anyway. The speed has increased to the point that the block doesn't really setup until the system is too far offshore on the 12z GFS.

The first storm misses us on most guidance now.