March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Brian5671]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

The good news is there will be cold air for the day 10 storm.

yeah if we get an -EPO and can get a cold front through here was some decent cold air we'll have a chance....

[MJO812]

German is  well south but still all rain as of right now

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

yeah if we get an -EPO and can get a cold front through here was some decent cold air we'll have a chance....

A negative AO can't do the trick ?

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

THERE'S NO COLD AIR!!!  March 2010 was colder than this and it rained for all 3 storms.

Actually there is cold air but not enough for our area as of right now.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A negative AO can't do the trick ?

The problem is your not understand how the AO works. Like I said before it can be -10 and not matter at all for us. Yes arctic air is being displaced hence the -ao the problem is it’s being displaced into Europe and Asia. 

It doesn’t matter how far south this trends. Without a cold air source it’s a rainstorm for anyone below 2,000 feet.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The risk with that storm is that the storm this week stalls over the Western Atlantic under the block and suppresses it. We probably won't be able to make a call on that one until the late week storm moves to our east.

Yep.  Frustrating.  

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The problem is your not understand how the AO works. Like I said before it can be -10 and not matter at all for us. Yes arctic air is being displaced hence the -ao the problem is it’s being displaced into Europe and Asia. 

It doesn’t matter how far south this trends. Without a cold air source it’s a rainstorm for anyone below 2,000 feet.

Yep.  Frustrating.   

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A negative AO can't do the trick ?

not with a stale continental airmass....you need to tap into a x-polar flow ideallly

[NJwx85]

The biggest threats for this system remain coastal and inland river flooding and damaging winds. The threat for significant snow is on life support.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The biggest threats for this system remain coastal and inland river flooding and damaging winds. The threat for significant snow is on life support.

Not for everyone. I keep throwing mt pocono out because that’s the closest populated area that has a shot at a blue bomb.

The east slope of the Catskills had 40”+ during March 10. There was still a snow line discernible in April  

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Bingo! The cold all went to the other side of the globe. -AO doesn’t always mean cold on our side of the hemisphere 

I read this could happen weeks ago elsewhere and never understood the hype about March. I hope something happens, but I am not looking forward to prolonged events like the one we are having today. 

[Rtd208]

I am just excited for the prospects of a major storm for our area, the heavy rain/snow, wind and coastal flooding potential really need to be watched closely, especially the coastal flooding potential. Regardless whether or not we see snow there are going to be significant/major impacts from this storm for the area.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not for everyone. I keep throwing mt pocono out because that’s the closest populated area that has a shot at a blue bomb.

The east slope of the Catskills had 40”+ during March 10. There was still a snow line discernible in April  

Hunter Mountain and other places far north in the Catskills closer to the cold air may be better. The Euro today mostly focused on I-90 and elevated areas in NY, and SNE as the upper low bombs out and drags cold air down in time to nail Boston. December 1992 like. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is cooler and further south. All rain here but nice  to see it further south .

[dmillz25]

Pssstttt people.... mid levels below freezing with a bombing low would easily be rain to snow even with a ****ty airmass. It’s not like its April its early March it’s plenty cold enough still

[MJO812]

18z gefs mean got colder

Shows about 2-3 inches down to the city

[weatherlogix]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The problem is your not understand how the AO works. Like I said before it can be -10 and not matter at all for us. Yes arctic air is being displaced hence the -ao the problem is it’s being displaced into Europe and Asia. 

It doesn’t matter how far south this trends. Without a cold air source it’s a rainstorm for anyone below 2,000 feet.

This kind of has December 1992 written all over it

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

This kind of has December 1992 written all over it

More like March 2010

[snowman19]

This looks really really ugly for coastal sections. I hope I’m wrong but the models are making this look 1992-esque. Full moon, strong winds, rain and high tide coinciding. Major flooding concerns and coastal erosion are looking more and more likely 

[weathermedic]

Dec 92 had water come up onto the FDR Dr on the east side of Manhattan and pour into some subway stations. Also had water 1-2 ft deep a few blocks inland in Coney Island. Not nearly as bad as Sandy, but definitely disruptive to say the least. I spent the morning doing house to house searches in Sheepshead Bay checking on elderly people trapped in their homes due to the high tide.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Dec 92 had water come up onto the FDR Dr on the east side of Manhattan and pour into some subway stations. Also had water 1-2 ft deep a few blocks inland in Coney Island. Not nearly as bad as Sandy, but definitely disruptive to say the least. I spent the morning doing house to house searches in Sheepshead Bay checking on elderly people trapped in their homes due to the high tide.

I remember there being some pretty severe flooding in Long Beach from that as well (was only 6 years old). Waves crashed into the boardwalk, and winds gusted to 70 mph. Until Irene (and Sandy a year later) it was the worst coastal flood event I can remember here. 

[Rjay]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I remember there being some pretty severe flooding in Long Beach from that as well (was only 6 years old). Waves crashed into the boardwalk, and winds gusted to 70 mph. Until Irene (and Sandy a year later) it was the worst coastal flood event I can remember here. 

The winds ripped some siding off my parents home.  My school lost power.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I remember there being some pretty severe flooding in Long Beach from that as well (was only 6 years old). Waves crashed into the boardwalk, and winds gusted to 70 mph. Until Irene (and Sandy a year later) it was the worst coastal flood event I can remember here. 

It was definitly the big one. I was 10 and will never forget the sound of the wind. Something not repeated until sandy. I was evacuated out of my elementary school when it was surrounded by flooding. I remember vividly the beach erosion between Tobay and Gilgo. The primary and secondary dunes were destroyed and replaced with a man made dune made out of rock and dirt. That was then destroyed by sandy. There was an old inlet there that was filled to make ocean parkway. It came soooo close to opening back up during sandy.

i highly doubt we see anything on par with 92. Something more in line with March 10 seems more in the cards coastal flooding wise. That would be solid major coastal flooding bench marks. But about 2 feet lower then 92 and 5 feet lower then Sandy’s. 

[Cfa]

How did Dec 1992 compare to Mar 2010 in the wind department?

I remember being stuck in traffic on the GWB (Manhattan-bound) during Mar 2010, the winds were so ferocious the front of our minivan was lifting off of the road. Very scary being in the outer lane (and sitting in the front passenger seat), looking down at the black, choppy Hudson River.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

How did Dec 1992 compare to Mar 2010 in the wind department?

I remember being stuck in traffic on the GWB (Manhattan-bound) during Mar 2010, the winds were so ferocious the front of our minivan was lifting off of the road. Very scary being in the outer lane (and sitting in the front passenger seat), looking down at the black, choppy Hudson River.

I think Mar 2010 was worse in my area. There was massive tree damage on the South Shore, and parts of Long Beach had no power for a week. Luckily not much tidal flooding but about 5” of rain worsened the tree damage. Winds around here gusted over 75 mph. There was a constant roar at the height of it, flashes from transformers and the sound of sirens responding to damage. Dec 1992 may have been a little lower wind wise but the flooding was worse. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

30 minutes ago, Cfa said:

How did Dec 1992 compare to Mar 2010 in the wind department?

I remember being stuck in traffic on the GWB (Manhattan-bound) during Mar 2010, the winds were so ferocious the front of our minivan was lifting off of the road. Very scary being in the outer lane (and sitting in the front passenger seat), looking down at the black, choppy Hudson River.

I would say March 10 was worse wind wise. I watched a a large Norway spruce on my neighbors property in Long Beach bend for hours before finally uprooting and falling across both yards. I walked down to the boardwalk during the night of the storm and there were vortices of sand spinning like tornadoes down the beach. Even got on a live weather channel boardcast with mike sidel. The tree damage on the south shore was definitly far worse. The major difference was the duration. 92 has multiple tide cycles to build up a surge. So surge flooding and ersosion were the big damage producers in that one.

[Dan76]

I remember driving home from sundayriver in dec 92 worcester was buried when I got on the cross isle you could see where the water was over the bike path.                                                               looks like this storm will last longer

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It was definitly the big one. I was 10 and will never forget the sound of the wind. Something not repeated until sandy. I was evacuated out of my elementary school when it was surrounded by flooding. I remember vividly the beach erosion between Tobay and Gilgo. The primary and secondary dunes were destroyed and replaced with a man made dune made out of rock and dirt. That was then destroyed by sandy. There was an old inlet there that was filled to make ocean parkway. It came soooo close to opening back up during sandy.

i highly doubt we see anything on par with 92. Something more in line with March 10 seems more in the cards coastal flooding wise. That would be solid major coastal flooding bench marks. But about 2 feet lower then 92 and 5 feet lower then Sandy’s. 

Yeah well I was 29 and stuck in darkness in a power outage with a room full of 7th graders for 6 hours.....it was terrifying.

[MJO812]

Gefs has a beautiful track but warm for the coast

 

Have to see the members 

 

I had a feeling it was going to come in further south. I wouldn't be shocked to see it come even further south. The models always have a hard time with  blocking. I have and still do believe that the models will also adjust colder as time goes on. I see this storm as a rain to snow event for our area.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs has a beautiful track but warm for the coast

 

Have to see the members 

 

I had a feeling it was going to come in further south. I wouldn't be shocked to see it come even further south. The models always have a hard time with  blocking. I have and still do believe that the models will also adjust colder as time goes on. I see this storm as a rain to snow event for our area.

It doesn’t matter how far South the track is, there is no injection of cold air to speak of.

[snow1]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

It doesn’t matter how far South the track is, there is no injection of cold air to speak of.

That’s what he doesn’t understand! Keeps talking about the track but there is no cold air did snow