March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[ForestHillWx]

38 with rain. Some sleet mixing in. 

[donsutherland1]

March will be concluding on a milder note. Nevertheless, March will finish cooler than normal. Further, March will wind up cooler than February for the second consecutive year. The only other time that occurred in New York City was March 1890 (2.4° cooler than February) and March 1891 (0.1° cooler than February). However, the 2017-18 cases will be the only such consecutive years where March was 1.0° or more cooler than February in both cases. March 2018 will be only the 7th such case since regular recordkeeping began in 1869.

The guidance continues to hint at the possibility of a measurable snowfall event in April. The EPS continues to show some risk, especially just outside New York City. The 3/27 12z and 3/28 0z runs of the ECMWF even showed measurable snowfall for New York City.

Given the forecast pattern and the guidance, the probability of such an outcome is likely higher than climatology. For now, the highest probability continues to exist for the April 4-6 period.
 
New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/27 38.8° (3.0° below normal)
3/31 40.0°-40.6° (3/27 estimate: 40.2°-40.9°)

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (3/27 estimate: 85%)

[CIK62]

Remainder of March averaging 51degs., or 5degs. AN.  Month to date is  -3.0.  Should end month at  -2.0.  The full 8 days are averaging 47degs., or near Normal.

[bluewave]

Chance for parts of the area to see some 60's on Friday. This would make it bookend 60 degree days for March. At the start and end of the month with a long cooler stretch in between.

 

 

 

 

[Rjay]

22 hours ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

  How much snow did Lynbrook get during the Jan 2016 Snowstorm? Unfortunately I never measured.

25-30"

[doncat]

March has turned wintry again here with 5 of the past 6 years below normal, with five of them having a significant  -2° or greater  departure...Snowfall has averaged 9.3" during these years...March 2014 was virtually snow less despite being very cold.

[nzucker]

11 minutes ago, doncat said:

March has turned wintry again here with 5 of the past 6 years below normal, with five of them having a significant  -2° or greater  departure...Snowfall has averaged 9.3" during these years...March 2014 was virtually snow less despite being very cold.

We missed 3 storms in March 2014 which hit DC to our south. The last one was a 980s coastal that got shunted to our south and had a lot of dry air in its northern quadrant. I believe that was around 3/25/14...we had a few snow showers mixed with rain/sleet. 

We did record 0.5" on 4/15/14 in Brooklyn, with higher amounts to our north and west, so winter was not quite done that year.

I suspect winter may also still be alive this year.

[Paragon]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

March will be concluding on a milder note. Nevertheless, March will finish cooler than normal. Further, March will wind up cooler than February for the second consecutive year. The only other time that occurred in New York City was March 1890 (2.4° cooler than February) and March 1891 (0.1° cooler than February). However, the 2017-18 cases will be the only such consecutive years where March was 1.0° or more cooler than February in both cases. March 2018 will be only the 7th such case since regular recordkeeping began in 1869.

The guidance continues to hint at the possibility of a measurable snowfall event in April. The EPS continues to show some risk, especially just outside New York City. The 3/27 12z and 3/28 0z runs of the ECMWF even showed measurable snowfall for New York City.

Given the forecast pattern and the guidance, the probability of such an outcome is likely higher than climatology. For now, the highest probability continues to exist for the April 4-6 period.
 
New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/27 38.8° (3.0° below normal)
3/31 40.0°-40.6° (3/27 estimate: 40.2°-40.9°)

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (3/27 estimate: 85%)

The April 4-7 period has a historical spike in terms of snowfalls in our region.

[Paragon]

13 hours ago, Rjay said:

25-30"

28" max snow depth, total snowfall was in the 30-31" area.

[Paragon]

On 3/26/2018 at 6:46 PM, winterwx21 said:

Obviously everything has to come together perfectly to get an all out snowstorm in April. There's a very slim chance that it could happen, but odds are great that we've seen our last snowstorm. And as much as I love snow, I hope we've seen our last snowstorm. The growing season for cool weather vegetables starts this week. Who would want snow falling on vegetable plants. It has happened only 1 time since I started gardening. The April snowstorm in 2003 (I believe it was the 7th) when we got about 6 inches of snow here. Thankfully it did not damage the broccoli plants or stop the peas from coming up because that stuff is so hardy, but it was an awful sight and had me worried. April is not a time for snowstorms around here, but I know some snow fans that don't do early season gardening will still be rooting for it.

Meh, you shouldn't start planting anything before 4/20 unless you plant them inside first.  We've had three big snowstorms in April (1982, 1996 and 2003.)

[Paragon]

On 3/26/2018 at 8:21 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The only reason Central Park even bothered with the April 5, 2006 measurement of 0.1 inches was because it brought the seasonal total to 40.0 inches even making if the fourth straight year NYC recorded 40 or more inches of snow, which had never happened before or since. I'm sure someone at the NWS contacted the Zoo and told them to record that 0.1 because that was something the zookeeper never did. The Conservancy hasn't been great either, but I have found them to be an improvement over the Zoo.

We actually had like 1.5" to 2" here in SW Nassau (I think JFK measured 1" in the 4/5/06 event), some of the hardest rates of the entire season (including the 2/06 storm.)

[Paragon]

On 3/27/2018 at 1:10 AM, doncat said:

This date in 1998 started a March heat wave, as temps exceeded 80° for five straight days peaking at 87° on the 31st.

For some reason I dont remember that March heat as much as I do the heat we had in mid March in 1990.  I also remember the true heatwave of April 2002 a lot better.

[Paragon]

On 3/27/2018 at 1:16 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Jan 16 was king from eastern queens to western Nassau where totals were in the 30” range. Just to the west and east of the that band it was high 20s. 

Going to and from manhattan in the days following you could see the difference from about lynbrook to Forrest hills  

yeah outside of 97-98, super el ninos aren't so bad for us lol.  82-83 and 15-16 were both pretty good winters here with 2 historic storms. Jan 2016 was the greatest snowstorm this area has seen- might be the only 30" snowstorm I'll ever see.

[Paragon]

On 3/26/2018 at 8:10 AM, nzucker said:

Central Park must have had accumulation on 4/15/14...I had 0.5" in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn and 1.0" in Dobbs Ferry. Whether they forgot to measure is another question entirely.

0.5" here also in SW Nassau.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

57 minutes ago, Paragon said:

yeah outside of 97-98, super el ninos aren't so bad for us lol.  82-83 and 15-16 were both pretty good winters here with 2 historic storms. Jan 2016 was the greatest snowstorm this area has seen- might be the only 30" snowstorm I'll ever see.

15-16 was the warmest Met winter the areas ever seen. Other than the 30 inch storm in the NYC area the entire winter saw about an additional three inches of snow. 

82-83 one good storm feb 83 and mild and snowless most of the winter otherwise. I can’t call either of those pretty good winters. Both nightmare winters in my book. One great storm in each and mild and snowless the entire winter otherwise. To each his own though I guess. 

[Paragon]

27 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

15-16 was the warmest Met winter the areas ever seen. Other than the 30 inch storm in the NYC area the entire winter saw about an additional three inches of snow. 

82-83 one good storm feb 83 and mild and snowless most of the winter otherwise. I can’t call either of those pretty good winters. Both nightmare winters in my book. One great storm in each and mild and snowless the entire winter otherwise. To each his own though I guess. 

In 15-16 we also had a few hours of very heavy snow in February (including thundersnow) when a crane fell in NYC, I dont know if Central Park undermeasured that one, but that was a decent snowfall around here.  We also got another decent snowfall around superbowl weekend and ended up with close to 50" of snow here in western long island (though it was a pretty mild winter overall.)  Looking at JFK's stats, they had over 40 inches of snow and a 40 degree average temperature.

 

Outside of the February 1983 blizzard in 82-83, we also had a nice snow event in December, as well as the latest measurable snowfall to ever occur here with around 2" of snow on April 19-20 (JFK 1.5" parts of Long Island up to 4")  much bigger storm inland.  That season we got about 3 feet of snow- easily the snowiest year of the entire decade.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Despite the onset of a period of above normal temperatures, the current warmth very likely won’t last. A deep trough is forecast to move into eastern Canada and then press into the region during the first week of April.

The ensembles forecast the kind of severely negative AO and PNA that has been uncommon to open April. Such a configuration typically favors wetter than normal conditions in the Middle Atlantic and New England regions. Hence, the potential for several storms to impact the region during the April 1-10 period is higher than climatologically normal.

With the potential for cold air to become involved, wintry precipitation cannot be ruled out.
 
New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/28 39.0° (3.0° below normal)
3/31 40.1°-40.5° (3/28 estimate: 40.2°-40.9°)

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (3/28 estimate: >99.9%)

[CIK62]

Remainder of March averaging 53degs., or about 6-7degs. AN.   Month to date is  -3.0.  Should end at -2.3.   The whole 8 days averaging 50degs., or 3degs. AN.

[winterwx21]

7 hours ago, Paragon said:

Meh, you shouldn't start planting anything before 4/20 unless you plant them inside first.  We've had three big snowstorms in April (1982, 1996 and 2003.)

That's ridiculous. Those types of things are supposed to be planted in very early Spring. They're called cool weather crops for a reason. If you wait until late April to plant them, then they mature in weather that's too warm and the crops aren't as good. I've been planting that stuff (peas, broccoli, lettuce and radishes) in late March for the last 20 years and have never had a problem. The 2003 snowstorm didn't harm anything because that stuff is so hardy. Now warm weather vegetables like tomatoes and beans, that's a different story. That stuff I don't plant until May when the threat of frost is gone.

[Cfa]

Brassica vegetables (Broccoli, Kale, etc.) are insanely cold tolerant. You see ornamental varieties planted in the fall persist throughout the winter before blooming and dying the following spring (biannuals).

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

That's ridiculous. Those types of things are supposed to be planted in very early Spring. They're called cool weather crops for a reason. If you wait until late April to plant them, then they mature in weather that's too warm and the crops aren't as good. I've been planting that stuff (peas, broccoli, lettuce and radishes) in late March for the last 20 years and have never had a problem. The 2003 snowstorm didn't harm anything because that stuff is so hardy. Now warm weather vegetables like tomatoes and beans, that's a different story. That stuff I don't plant until May when the threat of frost is gone.

I usually plant lettuce, spinach, kale, peas etc around the first week of April. I'm getting my containers and soil from my parents' house in Dobbs Ferry this Saturday.

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, doncat said:

March has turned wintry again here with 5 of the past 6 years below normal, with five of them having a significant  -2° or greater  departure...Snowfall has averaged 9.3" during these years...March 2014 was virtually snow less despite being very cold.

March has been a much better month for snowstorms than December since the 12-13 winter. The OKX forecast zones have had a total of 8 events of 6" or more in March and only 3 in December. For 12" and up events it has been 6 in March to 0 in December.

[doncat]

Warm front not too far away but didn't make it here with 48° high...Will probably warm to 60° for a time tomorrow just ahead of the cold front. Very foggy now also.

[donsutherland1]

With showers and fog giving way to sunshine this afternoon, the temperature could push into the upper 50s and then lower 60s across the region. A few locations in central New Jersey could reach the middle 60s.

After strong consistency in its runs, the 3/29 12z ECMWF departed dramatically from its idea of colder than normal conditions with a risk for some snow in the region in its extended forecast. However, the ensembles have maintained decent run-to-run continuity, so right now the ECMWF appears to be an outlier. Then, at 0z, the ECMWF flipped back to a cold outcome with two snowfalls (4/2 and 4/7-8). The earlier date has some additional model support.

Therefore, it remains likely that at least the first half of April will wind up colder than normal in the NYC region. The potential for measurable snowfall in parts of the area remains higher than climatologically normal.
 
New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/29 39.4° (2.7° below normal)
3/31 40.0°-40.2° (3/29 estimate: 40.1°-40.5°)

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (3/29 estimate: >99.9%)

[CIK62]

Remainder of March averaging 51deg., or 4degs. AN.  Month to date is   -2.7.  Should end at  -2.3.  The full 8 days averaging 48degs., or just about Normal.

CMC has a trace of Snow in the next 10, GFS has none.

Warm period for the EURO is  4/14---4/23.  Late April and first half of May could stay below their potential.

[bluewave]

First time in over 100 years that NYC had two years in a row when February was warmer than March. During the 1800's, it was mostly due to the colder Marches. Now, it's a result of the warmer Februaries.

2018....42.0...39.4

2017...41.6....39.2

1984...40.6....36.7

1960...36.3....33.3

1891...36.5....35.8

1890...37.9...35.6

1880...37.2....36.5

1877...37.0...35.8

 

[doncat]

Warmer air not that far away but still 49° here.

[dWave]

up to 56 now here.

Central Park is 61

LGA 54

JFK 49

[Bosswx]

68.9 Here beautiful out pollen has started!

[Cfa]

56 here, could be a lot worse, but days like this still suck. It’d be nice if the sun came out, temps would soar.