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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Going forward into the spring and summer, it will be interesting to see if this near record precipitation pattern continues. The climate has generally been drier than normal here since 2012. The wet stretches after 2011 have usually been transient before dryness returned. So far, ISP and JFK are having their 2nd wettest February and March period on record.

Feb/Mar precipitation

ISP

#1....2010...14.67"

#2...2018....13.83"

JFK

#1...2010....14.63"

#2...2018....10.86"

 

Astronomical winter here was the 3rd wettest since 1981 with 15.12" precip.

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NYC Spring average temperature 3/1-5/31...total precipitation...max temp...

year.....ave temp....precip"....max temp......
1869..........47.2......10.15................................

1870..........48.6......10.27..........
1871..........52.2......12.61..........
1872..........47.1........8.71..........
1873..........47.1........9.94..........
1874..........45.7......13.13..........
1875..........45.8........7.99...........
1876..........47.2......14.88......87
1877..........47.7........9.24......88
1878..........52.3........8.43......84
1879..........50.6........9.76......86

1880..........51.5........8.18......96
1881..........48.4........9.96......93
1882..........48.2........8.37......80
1883..........47.0........8.03......82
1884..........48.5......11.18......86
1885..........46.6........4.95......87
1886..........50.2......12.08......86
1887..........47.5........6.20......87
1888..........44.7......13.13......84
1889..........51.5......11.00......91

1890..........48.3......10.80......81
1891..........47.8........8.44......82
1892..........47.4........9.73......81
1893..........46.7......13.50......85
1894..........51.0........7.27......85
1895..........49.3........7.59......96
1896..........50.6........9.06......92
1897..........50.9......10.83......81
1898..........50.6......12.75......86
1899..........49.9........8.60......88

1900..........47.7........9.23......90
1901..........47.9......18.52......85
1902..........51.3........9.22......86
1903..........54.2........7.97......89
1904..........48.8........9.25......89
1905..........50.6........6.60......81
1906..........50.1......16.47......90
1907..........48.5......11.08......85
1908..........52.3......13.16......88
1909..........49.1......11.17......83

1910..........53.0........7.51......82
1911..........48.7........8.12......86
1912..........50.1......16.63......89
1913..........52.7......15.69......89
1914..........49.6......10.43......95
1915..........50.1........7.10......92
1916..........47.4......11.33......81
1917..........47.3......11.00......84
1918..........52.7......11.15......91
1919..........51.8......12.99......92

1920..........48.9......13.26......82
1921..........55.2......10.19......89
1922..........52.4......11.30......86
1923..........49.0........8.37......86
1924..........48.5......14.47......75
1925..........51.9........9.43......91
1926..........47.7........6.81......83
1927..........50.2........8.95......90
1928..........48.9........9.73......80
1929..........52.6......14.09......93

1930..........50.8........7.96......91
1931..........51.0......13.00......93
1932..........49.4......11.11......90
1933..........51.1......16.46......90
1934..........50.4......13.11......90
1935..........51.0........5.06......89
1936..........52.5......11.72......92
1937..........50.4......10.90......93
1938..........52.9........8.96......89
1939..........51.1........9.93......96

1940..........47.5......17.80......83
1941..........52.5........7.70......96
1942..........54.0........8.78......92
1943..........49.6......10.44......89
1944..........51.2......11.91......92
1945..........55.3......11.23......86
1946..........54.0......11.44......87
1947..........49.4......11.63......86
1948..........51.1......14.35......87
1949..........53.3........9.49......92

1950..........47.9........7.05......82
1951..........52.6......12.99......90
1952..........52.0......13.83......83
1953..........53.6......18.31......90
1954..........51.7........9.05......85
1955..........53.5........8.32......90
1956..........48.1......10.01......89
1957..........52.7......10.17......87
1958..........50.8......12.58......82
1959..........53.4........7.01......94

1960..........50.0........8.98......87
1961..........50.1......12.91......85
1962..........53.6........7.23......99
1963..........52.8........7.04......86
1964..........52.7........8.23......94
1965..........52.3........6.97......94
1966..........51.3........7.89......85
1967..........47.5......13.50......81
1968..........52.6......14.67......82
1969..........53.8......10.39......97

1970..........51.6......11.00......93
1971..........50.8......10.99......85
1972..........51.1......16.86......86
1973..........53.1......16.16......86
1974..........52.8......13.88......92
1975..........51.3........9.74......93
1976..........53.2......10.56......96
1977..........55.2......12.87......92
1978..........50.7......14.26......90
1979..........54.9......14.67......94

1980..........53.8......21.00......90
1981..........54.4........8.17......87
1982..........52.4......10.66......84
1983..........52.2......29.15......85
1984..........50.1......22.66......85
1985..........55.5........9.04......88
1986..........55.2........7.07......94
1987..........54.1......12.28......97
1988..........52.5........9.57......91
1989..........52.2......19.43......86

1990..........52.9......17.86......91
1991..........56.3......11.95......93
1992..........50.5........9.86......93
1993..........52.9......12.48......92
1994..........52.7......13.01......91
1995..........52.9........6.39......87
1996..........50.7......12.78......96
1997..........51.0......11.09......83
1998..........54.6......19.07......87
1999..........53.0........9.98......89

2000..........53.9......11.34......93
2001..........52.5......11.32......92
2002..........53.6......10.63......96
2003..........50.5......11.20......88
2004..........54.1......12.87......87
2005..........51.1......11.18......87
2006..........54.0......10.98......88
2007..........51.0......20.28......91
2008..........52.5......10.86......84
2009..........53.1......11.61......92

2010..........57.1......16.69......92
2011..........53.7......16.65......89
2012..........56.9........9.90......89
2013..........52.0......12.21......90

2014..........51.3......15.89......89

2015..........53.6........8.73......88

2016..........55.0........7.96......92

2017..........52.5......15.47......92

2018..........

1870-79......48.4......10.50......
1880-89......48.4........9.31......96
1890-99......49.2........9.86......96
1900-09......50.1......11.27......90
1910-19......50.3......11.20......95
1920-29......50.5......10.66......93
1930-39......51.1......10.82......96
1940-49......51.8......11.48......96
1950-59......51.6......10.93......94
1960-69......51.7........9.78......99
1970-79......52.5......13.10......96
1980-89......53.2......14.90......97
1990-99......52.8......12.45......96
2000-09......52.8......12.23......96
2010-17......54.0......12.94......92

1870-
2009..........51.0......11.32......95
1980-
2009..........52.9......13.19......96

Top ten
warmest................coolest...............wettest....................driest
57.1 in 2010.....44.7 in 1888......29.15" in 1983......4.95" in 1885
56.9 in 2012.....45.7 in 1874......22.66" in 1984......5.06" in 1935
56.3 in 1991.....45.8 in 1875......21.00" in 1980......6.20" in 1887
55.5 in 1985.....46.6 in 1885......20.28" in 2007......6.39" in 1995
55.3 in 1945.....46.7 in 1893......19.43" in 1989......6.60" in 1905
55.2 in 1986.....47.0 in 1883......19.07" in 1998......6.81" in 1926
55.2 in 1977.....47.1 in 1873......18.31" in 1953......6.97" in 1965
55.2 in 1921.....47.1 in 1872......17.86" in 1990......7.01" in 1959
55.0 in 2016.....47.2 in 1876......17.80" in 1940......7.04" in 1963
54.9 in 1979.....47.2 in 1869......16.86" in 1972......7.05" in 1950

...........................................................................................................

April stats...

April decade averages...

NYC Central Park obs since 1870...

decade......temp...high...low...max...min...ave max ave min...precip...snow...B.S.

1870's........47.9...53.3...41.1....na...20..........na........na........3.86"....1.8"....10.0"

1880's........48.5...52.9...46.0....84...21.........77.6.......27.4.....2.92"....0.7".....3.0"

1890's........49.3...52.3...46.4....90...24.........79.1.......28.2.....2.59"....0.8".....3.0"

1900's........49.6...52.2...46.6....84...24.........77.7.......30.4.....3.94"....0.6".....5.0"

1910's........50.6...55.1...47.8....92...22.........79.6.......29.3.....3.78"....2.3"....10.2"

1920's........50.2...56.1...47.3....90...12.........82.6.......28.3.....3.62"....0.9".....8.5"

1930's........49.9...53.7...47.9....89...28.........79.0.......31.9.....3.46"....0.6".....6.4"

1940's........51.4...56.9...46.1....91...24.........79.7.......31.5.....3.33"....1.1".....6.5"

1950's........52.4...55.0...48.2....85...23.........81.1.......31.7.....3.82"....1.0".....4.2"

1960's........52.1...55.9...49.0....91...28.........82.9.......31.8.....3.33"....0.1".....1.2"

1970's........52.2...55.2...47.9....96...25.........84.2.......29.1.....3.82"....0.1".....0.4"

1980's........53.3...56.2...51.2....88...21.........79.9.......31.8.....5.59"....1.0".....9.6"

1990's........53.2...55.7...50.5....91...23.........81.3.......32.4.....3.77"....0.1".....0.7"

2000's........53.5...56.1...49.8....96...29.........86.3.......32.0.....4.67"....0.5".....4.0"

2010's........54.6...57.9...52.3....92...26.........83.9.......34.0.....3.57"....trace trace 2010-17

1870-

2009..........51.0...54.8...47.6....na...na.........80.8.......30.4.....3.72"....0.8".....5.2"

1980-

2009..........53.3...56.0...50.5....na...na.........82.5.......32.1.....4.68"....0.5".....4.8"

April extremes...

warmest........coldest........wettest........driest........snowiest

57.9 2010...41.1 1874...14.01" 1983...0.95" 1881...13.5" 1875

57.2 2017...43.1 1875...13.05" 2007...1.09" 1942...10.2" 1915

56.9 1941...46.0 1888.....8.77" 1874...1.27" 1963.....9.6" 1982

56.2 1981...46.1 1943.....8.26" 1980...1.27" 1896.....8.5" 1924

56.1 2002...46.3 1887.....8.05" 1973...1.31" 2013.....6.5" 1944

56.1 1921...46.3 1881.....7.85" 2014...1.39" 1869.....6.5" 1917

55.9 1969...46.4 1893.....7.05" 1998...1.41" 1985.....6.4" 1938

55.7 2006...46.6 1904.....6.62" 1984...1.43" 1946.....5.8" 1907

55.7 1991...46.7 1907.....6.62" 1901...1.53" 1935.....5.0" 1887

55.6 1945...46.7 1873.....6.33" 1996...1.58" 2001.....4.2" 1956

55.6 1994

Warmest Coldest temperatures...

96 17th 2002........12 1st 1923

96 18th 1976........20 5th 1874

92 16th 2002........21 4th 1874

92 7th 2010......................

92 19th 1976........21 5th 1881

92 26th 2009........21 6th 1982

92 27th 1915........21 7th 1982

91 25th 1915........21 19th 1875

91 30th 1942........22 12th 1874

91 17th 1976........22 1st 1919

91 18th 2002........22 2nd 1919

91 27th 1990........23 7th 1881

91 27th 1962........23 6th 1881

90 8th 1991..........23 5th 1995

90 12th 1977........23 4th 1954

90 18th 1896........23 1st 1874

90 20th 1927

90 28th 1990

90 28th 2009

Coldest daily max...

30 5th 1881

30 7th 1982

31 6th 1881

32 4th 1879

32 5th 1879

33 6th 1938

34 6th 1943

34 5th 1944

34 3rd 1896

34 1st 1874

Warmest monthly min...

42 in 1878

40 in 2010

38 in 2012

37 in 2005

37 in 1951

37 in 1910

37 in 1902

37 in 2017

36 in 1991

36 in 1941

36 in 1901

35 in 2011+

Coldest monthly max...

67 in 1940

68 in 1883

69 in 1884

69 in 1876

70 in 1916

71 in 1931

72 in 1893

72 in 1904

73 in 1966+

Biggest snowstorms...

10.2" 3-4th 1915

10.0" 13th 1875

9.6" 6th 1982

8.5" 1st 1924

6.5" 8-9th 1917

6.5" 5th 1944

6.4" 6-7th 1938

5.0" 9th 1907

4.2" 8th 1956

4.0" 7th 2003

3.3" 8-9th 1916

3.3" 5-6th 1896

3.0" 18th 1887

2.6" 11-13th 1918

2.5" 4th 1957

2.5" 4th 1870

2.5" 5th 1898

2.2" 9-10th 1942

2.0" 2nd 1871

1.9" 14th 1950

1.7" 12-13th 1940

1.2" 9th 2000

1.2" 2nd 1965

1.0" 12th 1894

1.0" 15th 1892

1.0" 4th 1886

 

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Remainder of March averaging 48degs., or 2degs. AN.  Month to date is   -2.8.   Should end month at   -1.7.  The 8 day period is about the same.

This would give the first three months of 2018 an average of  about  +1.1.

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At 8 am, a snow shower was tracking southwestward from near Danbury. Some additional snow showers could develop this morning.
 
Afterward, much of this week looks more like spring than winter. Temperatures will rise into the 50s in coming days and then the 60s by the middle or latter part of the week. Thursday and possibly Friday have the potential to see the warmest temperatures with the mercury rising into the middle to upper 60s. A few locations in New Jersey could approach 70°

Despite the late turn toward warmer conditions, March will very likely finish with a lower mean temperature than February in New York City and much of the surrounding region.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/24 38.6° (2.8° below normal)
3/25 38.5°-38.8° (3/24 estimate: 38.3°-38.6°)
3/31 39.9°-41.1° (3/24 estimate: 39.4°-40.8°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 81% (3/24 estimate: 75%)

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18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 8 am, a snow shower was tracking southwestward from near Danbury. Some additional snow showers could develop this morning.
 
Afterward, much of this week looks more like spring than winter. Temperatures will rise into the 50s in coming days and then the 60s by the middle or latter part of the week. Thursday and possibly Friday have the potential to see the warmest temperatures with the mercury rising into the middle to upper 60s. A few locations in New Jersey could approach 70°

Despite the late turn toward warmer conditions, March will very likely finish with a lower mean temperature than February in New York City and much of the surrounding region.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/24 38.6° (2.8° below normal)
3/25 38.5°-38.8° (3/24 estimate: 38.3°-38.6°)
3/31 39.9°-41.1° (3/24 estimate: 39.4°-40.8°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 81% (3/24 estimate: 75%)

That snow shower is over me right now.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A snow shower with large, wet flakes moved through Larchmont a few minutes ago. The snow shower was associated with what looked like a broken squall line heading southwestward.

Had a snow shower with that too

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A generally seasonable to warmer than normal stretch of weather now lies ahead.  Temperatures will rise into the 50s in coming days and then the 60s by the middle or latter part of the week. Thursday and Friday could see the warmest temperatures of the month with the mercury rising into the middle to upper 60s on at least one of the two days. A few locations in New Jersey could reach or exceed 70°.

Afterward, there remain indications that colder than normal weather could return in April. Whether or not there will be measurable snowfall in Central Park remains an open question. The last time Central Park saw measurable April snowfall occurred on April 5, 2006 when 0.1” fell. This is the longest such measurable snowfall drought for April on record in Central Park since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. The last time Central Park picked up 1.0” or more snow was April 7, 2003 when 4.0” accumulated.

Measurable snowfall in April has grown less common in New York City. During the first 50 years of recordkeeping (1869-1918), there were 32 such days, including 16 days with 1” or more. During the most recent 50-year period (1968-2017), there were 10 days with measurable snowfall and just 3 days with 1” or more.

Areas to the north and west of the City could have a higher probability of seeing measurable snowfall in April this year than New York City, but the City could have a chance given the forecast evolution of the pattern. Parts of Long Island likely have a higher probability of seeing measurable snowfall than New York City, as well.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/25 38.6° (3/25 estimate: 38.5°-38.8°; 2.9° below normal)
3/31 40.1°-41.1° (3/25 estimate: 39.9°-41.1°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 83% (3/25 estimate: 81%)

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the first time during the 2010's that NYC had 19 days in a row with a negative temperature departure. The only other streak close to this was in Feb 15 with 17 days in a row. Current streak began on March 7th.

Today and tomorrow should be below normal as well. I have 49/33 today and 49/37 tomorrow. Impressive streak, though the departures have been relatively small.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

Afterward, there remain indications that colder than normal weather could return in April. Whether or not there will be measurable snowfall in Central Park remains an open question. The last time Central Park saw measurable April snowfall occurred on April 5, 2006 when 0.1” fell. This is the longest such measurable snowfall drought for April on record in Central Park since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. The last time Central Park picked up 1.0” or more snow was April 7, 2003 when 4.0" accumulated.

Central Park must have had accumulation on 4/15/14...I had 0.5" in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn and 1.0" in Dobbs Ferry. Whether they forgot to measure is another question entirely.

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17 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Today and tomorrow should be below normal as well. I have 49/33 today and 49/37 tomorrow. Impressive streak, though the departures have been relatively small.

Yeah, the larger part of the daily negative departures were the cool highs with all the clouds and storms. The only portion of the departures to go below -10 were the cold highs on a few days.

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41 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Central Park must have had accumulation on 4/15/14...I had 0.5" in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn and 1.0" in Dobbs Ferry. Whether they forgot to measure is another question entirely.

Same here...rain ended as a period of snow before midnight of the 15th till about 1 am or so on the 16th, had 0.6" here.

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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

Central Park must have had accumulation on 4/15/14...I had 0.5" in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn and 1.0" in Dobbs Ferry. Whether they forgot to measure is another question entirely.

Central Park's measuring may well be at issue. The Park reported traces on both the 15th and 16th; the minimum temperature on the 16th was 31°; BDR reported a total of 0.1"; EWR reported a total of 0.4"; ISP reported a total of 0.2"; JFK reported a total of 0.1"; LGA reported a total of 0.3". Up in southern Westchester, I had about an 0.5" of snow that day.

IMO, when it comes to snow measurements, the existing quality control framework still leaves much to be desired.

Photo below:

04162014.jpg

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55 minutes ago, doncat said:

Same here...rain ended as a period of snow before midnight of the 15th till about 1 am or so on the 16th, had 0.6" here.

Yes, that was quite an event, was delivering pizza that day. Arrived at noon in 60F temperatures and a light jacket; by the time I drove home, it was ripping snow with temps in the low 30s.

I think Central Park definitely accumulated in that event, at least 0.5"...if Bay Ridge and Staten Island to the south both had half an inch, and Westchester to the north had near an inch, it must have snowed in between.

Snow measuring is one area that really lacks objectivity in this era of technology and computer-based measurement. We still seem unsure whether to measure what falls or what sticks, and small snowfalls often go unreported.

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3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

a video of where ever they measure should be rolling at all times...Then they can pull a Warner Wolf and go to the video tape...we can estimate measurements on line...

Honestly the only place I trust snowfall measurements is here from our members...Half those numbers in the nws public statements I don't trust and likewise with the so called official reports.

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April with wintry starts since 1950...

dates...max min precip snow depth

01........48....32......0.......0.......0

02........57....46....0.01....0.......0

03........63....48......T.......0.......0

04........76....46....0.02....0.......0

05........63....44....0.06....0.......0

06........48....31....0.13....0.......0

07........50....27.......0......0.......0

08........55....32.......0......0.......0

09........46....27....0.05....T.......0

10........57....29.......0......0.......0

1954.............................................

01........47....31....0.03...0.3......T

02........55....36.......0......0.......0

03........49....24.......0......0.......0

04........43....23.......0......0.......0

05........43....33.......T......T.......0

06........64....43....0.01....0.......0

07........74....53.......T......0.......0

08........77....43....0.17....0.......0

09........56....35.......0......0.......0

10........53....39.......0......0.......0

1956....................................................

01........52....33.......0......0.......0

02........48....37.......0......0.......0

03........50....40.......T......0.......0

04........51....43....0.01....0.......0

05........66....46.......0......0.......0

06........65....46....0.13....0.......0

07........46....37....0.75....0.......0

08........37....33....0.72...4.2.....3

09........52....34.......0......0.......1

10........57....36.......0......0.......0

1957........................................................

01........59....39....0.02....0.......0

02........62....41....0.78....0.......0

03........50....36.......0......0.......0

04........42....33....0.85...2.5.....2

05........58....34....0.77....0.......0

06........58....44....0.25....0.......0

07........61....43.......0......0.......0

08........50....37....0.31....0.......0

09........45....34....0.15....T.......0

10........51....35.......0......0.......0

1972.....................................................

01........58....41.......0......0.......0

02........54....39....0.13....T.......0

03........48....36.......0......0.......0

04........42....38....0.31....0.......0

05........54....32.......0......0.......0

06........62....42.......0......0.......0

07........42....28....0.03....T.......T

08........43....26.......T......T.......0

09........51....29.......0......0.......0

10........54....37.......0......0.......0

1975.......................................................

01........67....40.......0......0.......0

02........54....37.......0......0.......0

03........55....33....1.02....0.......0

04........37....27.......0......0.......0

05........41....27.......0......0.......0

06........41....30.......0......0.......0

07........47....29.......0......0.......0

08........47....31.......T......T.......0

09........52....33.......0......0.......0

10........58....32.......0......0.......0

1982................................................

01........65....46.......0......0.......0

02........58....36.......0......0.......0

03........56....43....1.86....0.......0

04........52....32.......T......T.......0

05........48....27.......0......0.......0

06........41....21....1.11...9.6.....3

07........30....21.......0......0.......9

08........43....25.......0......0.......6

09........39....34.......T......T.......3

10........53....34.......0......0.......2

1995.......................................................

01........55....37.......0......0.......0

02........49....35.......0......0.......0

03........56....34.......0......0.......0

04........68....28....0.04....0.......0

05........39....23.......0......0.......0

06........49....28.......0......0.......0

07........61....43.......0......0.......0

08........44....39....0.14....T.......0

09........68....41....0.56....0.......0

10........56....34.......T......0.......0

2003........................................................

01........43....30....0.11....T.......0

02........57....39.......T......0.......0

03........54....40.......0......0.......0

04........44....35.......0......0.......0

05........43....35.......0......0.......0

06........47....33.......0......0.......0

07........38....30....0.56...4.0.....1

08........37....31.......0......0.......3

09........39....35....0.30....0.......1

10........52....36.......0......0.......0

2007................................................

01........50....42....0.06....0.......0

02........56....42....0.06....0.......0

03........63....42.......0......0.......0

04........42....40....0.85....0.......0

05........44....34.......T......T.......0

06........42....31.......T......T.......0

07........43....31.......0......0.......0

08........41....30.......0......0.......0

09........49....32.......0......0.......0

10........51....33.......0......0.......0

2012..................................................

01........41....37....0.13.....0.......0

02........42....33....0.16.....0,,,,,,,0

03........56....42....0.12.....0.......0

04........45....36........0......0.......0

05........44....28........0......0.......0

06........44....25........0......0.......0

07........62....37........0......0.......0

08........71....53........0......0.......0

09........64....37....0.02.....0.......0

10........43....29........0......0.......0

2016................................................

01........79....61....0.02.....0.......0

02........61....49....0.16.....0.......0

03........50....34....0.09.....T.......0

04........45....29....0.47.....T.......0

05........43....26........0......0.......0

06........48....30........0......0.......0

07........58....48....0.09.....0.......0

08........50....40....0.01.....0.......0

09........43....36....0.11.....T.......0

10........50....31........0......0.......0

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2 minutes ago, doncat said:

Honestly the only place I trust snowfall measurements is here from our members...Half those numbers in the nws public statements I don't trust and likewise with the so called official reports.

we do it for fun...it's a burden for some...

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