March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

CMC has a big cold shot during the 1st week of April . That's the timeframe to watch for another snow event.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Impressive backdoor type cold front for early spring this weekend. Strong NNE flow with lows in the 20's for many from NE to the MA.

 

 

 

 

Is that last panel snowfall? I know the one above it is precip because it says so   It looks like the Catskills high peaks area is in for another good snowfall.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Is that last panel snowfall? I know the one above it is precip because it says so   It looks like the Catskills high peaks area is in for another good snowfall.

The models have snow showers this weekend as the upper disturbance moves across. Yet another steep mid-level lapse rate plume.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/cloop.html

[winterwx21]

29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

CMC has a big cold shot during the 1st week of April . That's the timeframe to watch for another snow event.

And 12z GFS lost the cold shot for us and is actually warm for the 1st week of April. I know it's a lousy model though and unlikely to be right about this, but you never know.

[sn0w]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And 12z GFS lost the cold shot for us and is actually warm for the 1st week of April. I know it's a lousy model though and unlikely to be right about this, but you never know.

Please let the GFS be right for once, lol.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

And 12z GFS lost the cold shot for us and is actually warm for the 1st week of April. I know it's a lousy model though and unlikely to be right about this, but you never know.

Euro has a big thump of cold in the west getting ready to head east at 240.

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has a big thump of cold in the west getting ready to head east at 240.

It could be that the cold is delayed a little bit and doesn't come in until the latter portion of the 1st week of April. Looks like a nice stretch of mild Spring weather starting on tuesday next week.

[swataz]

As much as I am a weather enthusiast, I will never understand some people's insatiable desire for more snow when we've been pummeled for the better part of a month. In April no less. LOL

[Rtd208]

Bring on spring, I am ready for it. I will be craving winter again come October.

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, swataz said:

As much as I am a weather enthusiast, I will never understand some people's insatiable desire for more snow when we've been pummeled for the better part of a month. In April no less. LOL

I’ll throw out a few reasons:

1.  If you love it, you love it.  Not just in Met Winter.  

2.   Snowfall is still a rare thing around here.  Maybe 10% of our annual precip is white?

3.  We’re about to go 8 months or so with no snow.  Any late or early season event that shortens that span is ok in my book.   It’s not like spring is going to be denied.    

[Juliancolton]

30 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

I’ll throw out a few reasons:

1.  If you love it, you love it.  Not just in Met Winter.  

2.   Snowfall is still a rare thing around here.  Maybe 10% of our annual precip is white?

3.  We’re about to go 8 months or so with no snow.  Any late or early season event that shortens that span is ok in my book.   It’s not like spring is going to be denied.    

Yeah, I don't get the prevailing attitude that certain types of weather are only good after or before certain dates. Like the folks who say December is too early to enjoy snow or October is too late to get excited about severe. It's a bit like how my grandparents would begin staring at their watches every day at 4:40 pm to know precisely when it hits 5 and becomes ok to pour a drink.

[swataz]

It’s not the dates or time of year. It’s the weariness of cold that I have succumbed to. I love all types of weather. I DON’T love two days of no power, exacerbating an injury I rehabbed three months to get back to feeling “OK” just to get my cars unearthed, and having my daily life and the life of my wife who commutes to NYC daily disrupted every flipping week. We can have snow in November, December, January, and February...and yes, apparently in March. I just figured others may share my feeling of “bring on spring.”

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, I don't get the prevailing attitude that certain types of weather are only good after or before certain dates. Like the folks who say December is too early to enjoy snow or October is too late to get excited about severe. It's a bit like how my grandparents would begin staring at their watches every day at 4:40 pm to know precisely when it hits 5 and becomes ok to pour a drink.

Look at it this way. In April the growing season is underway, as is baseball season. Who wants snow to mess up those things? I LOVE snow, but once we get past late March it can mess up Spring activities. So it gets to the point that I don't want it anymore. But late November through late March, bring it on.

[swataz]

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Look at it this way. In April the growing season is underway, as is baseball season. Who wants snow to mess up those things? I LOVE snow, but once we get past late March it can mess up Spring activities. So it gets to the point that I don't want it anymore. But late November through late March, bring it on.

Well said. I echo your sentiments!

 

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, swataz said:

As much as I am a weather enthusiast, I will never understand some people's insatiable desire for more snow when we've been pummeled for the better part of a month. In April no less. LOL

Still waiting to get pummeled.  Underperformed in my area every storm this winter. 

[swataz]

16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Still waiting to get pummeled.  Underperformed in my area every storm this winter. 

I’d say consider yourself lucky, but I’d imagine you’re disappointed. So close to the city, too? That’s bad luck!

[mattinpa]

49 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Look at it this way. In April the growing season is underway, as is baseball season. Who wants snow to mess up those things? I LOVE snow, but once we get past late March it can mess up Spring activities. So it gets to the point that I don't want it anymore. But late November through late March, bring it on.

I can see both sides. I did get my 10-12" storm finally, even if the March sun is melting it quickly. So I do not mind spring coming. But I don't do much related to spring gardening and things like that, so if it wants to still snow in April, I do not mind that either. 

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Look at it this way. In April the growing season is underway, as is baseball season. Who wants snow to mess up those things? I LOVE snow, but once we get past late March it can mess up Spring activities. So it gets to the point that I don't want it anymore. But late November through late March, bring it on.

Like we've been discussing lately, there's a frost/freeze risk through the month of April in many areas, and a hard frost after a mild stretch is infinitely more damaging to crops than snow by itself. If you pull for warmth in early April, you're basically saying you hope orchard owners won't be able to pay their bills this year.

[Dan76]

Guess where

 

Saturday

Occasional snow showers, mainly after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 47. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 75 to 80 mph decreasing to 65 to 70 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

[the_other_guy]

Living just north we had a number of smaller events that the city did not have (xmas day was one example). 

We never got hosed in a storm (except the windy nor easter a few weeks back when it looked like we were going to eeek out a snow event but it turned to rain)

But not one time this entire winter did I look outside and say “this is epic,” when so many others seemed to have that in one location or another.

I’m not complaining because if someone jackpotted in the region, we got 10 inches +/-2 inches. We always made out well...but it was always just a run of the mill 10 inch event.

This winter will be remembered for extreme cold, a longer period of warmth and a parade of March storms that caused more aggrevation than fun (wind, power issues, flooding, train issues) 

Outside of the cold period late dec-mid jan, for the third winter in a row, we have seen no prolonged period with snowcover on the ground despite an abudance of snowfall.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Gfs has a nice, extended warm pattern into April. I'm not buying the cool-down, I think the gradient stays to our north and west and we experience a very warm April. 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs has a nice, extended warm pattern into April. I'm not buying the cool-down, I think the gradient stays to our north and west and we experience a very warm April. 

Euro says otherwise

With the MJO going into 7 and 8  and the Nao and epo possibly going negative , a cool down is evident.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 45degs., or about 1deg. BN.  Month to date is  -2.8.  March should end at -2.3.

EURO has no AN 7-Day Periods all the way to early May.

[doncat]

Temp departure thru yesterday here at -2.7°... Hit 50° yesterday but still haven't had an above normal max temp since the 1st.

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs has a nice, extended warm pattern into April. I'm not buying the cool-down, I think the gradient stays to our north and west and we experience a very warm April. 

6z gfs lost the extended warmth

[bluewave]

Relative to March snowfall records, ISP looks like the big winner across the region.

Snowiest March rankings relative to station history

#1....ISP....31.9"

#2...PHL....15.2"

#3..ALB.....36.0"

#4..BOS....23.2"

#4..ABE....20.7"

#4..JFK.....12.8"

#5..ACY....9.6"

#6..BDR...14.5"

#8..EWR...13.2"

#9..LGA...11.6"

 

[donsutherland1]

Through the weekend, a quieter but still somewhat cooler than normal pattern is likely to persist. Nevertheless, an upper level disturbance could touch off some snow showers or even a brief period of light snow across the region tonight and tomorrow morning.

Next week will likely see more springlike warmth. Temperatures could reach the 60s by the middle or latter part of the week. However, it still appears more likely than not that this milder pattern will be broken during the first week in April.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/23 38.4° (2.8° below normal)
3/25 38.3°-38.6° (3/23 estimate: 38.2°-38.6°)
3/31 39.4°-40.8° (3/23 estimate: 39.5°-41.0°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 75% (3/23 estimate: 72%)

Monthly Snowfall through March 23:

March Snowfall for Select Cities:
Albany: 36.0" (3rd highest)
Allentown: 20.7” (4th highest)
Bangor: 33.0" (6th highest)
Binghamton: 35.0" (4th highest)
Boston: 22.2" (6th highest)
Bridgeport: 14.5" (6th highest)
Burlington: 30.1" (8th highest)
Concord: 28.1" (11th highest)
Islip: 31.9" (highest on record)
Manchester: 31.8" (2nd highest)
Portland: 32.9" (6th highest)
Syracuse: 43.6" (3rd highest)
Worcester: 41.8" (2nd highest)

Records:
Albany: 50.9", 1888
Allentown: 30.5”, 1958
Bangor: 41.5", 1956
Binghamton: 46.5", 2001
Boston: 38.9", 1993
Bridgeport: 21.8", 1967
Burlington: 47.6", 2001
Concord: 38.3", 1956
Islip: Old record: 23.3", 1967
Manchester: 37.7", 1916
Portland: 49.0", 1993
Syracuse: 54.4", 1993
Worcester: 44.1", 1993

[bluewave]

Going forward into the spring and summer, it will be interesting to see if this near record precipitation pattern continues. The climate has generally been drier than normal here since 2012. The wet stretches after 2011 have usually been transient before dryness returned. So far, ISP and JFK are having their 2nd wettest February and March period on record.

Feb/Mar precipitation

ISP

#1....2010...14.67"

#2...2018....13.83"

JFK

#1...2010....14.63"

#2...2018....10.86"

 

[Cfa]

It will be interesting to see if JFK and ISP can keep the trend going as convective precipitation begins to predominate, the south shore generally doesn’t do so well with convection.

[gravitylover]

14 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Guess where

 

Saturday

Occasional snow showers, mainly after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 47. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 75 to 80 mph decreasing to 65 to 70 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

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