Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said: With the possibility of a BN April, it will be interesting to see if April does not break our 2018 record of 78 degrees at KNYC. This happened in 1874, with a maximum of 72 degrees in February and 64 degree maximums in March and April. 64 max in April? Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: This sort of flew under the radar, but today was one of the more extreme sensible wx reversals I've seen in a while. I woke up to deep winter, temps in the mid-20s and roadways being plowed, and 12 hours later it could pass as a perfectly agreeable spring afternoon. It was VERY warm in the sun especially with wet roads and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1940 did not hit 70 until may...only 67 in April ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Still have to be careful about the growing season. Not sure what it is for NYC, but here my average last frost is roughly the third week of April. Do you have a better idea of what the average last freeze and frost is for us @rgwp96? Last frost is usually first or second week of May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Last frost is usually first or second week of May Wow, later than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Wow, later than I thought. Dobbs Ferry's latest freeze in recent times is 5/10/2010. Average last frost is around April 18th. I think May 5th is the 10% date. That's at 300' in Southern Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Made it to 47 degrees for the high temp here today...that's still 6 degrees below normal. Watch out next several days for refreezing at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 41 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Wow, later than I thought. Most greenhouses and nurseries etc. will tell you May 15 for the "after all risk of frost" date for my area, but KPOU hasn't had a subfreezing low later than April since 2013. The average last frost date is 13 days earlier than it was in the late '40s, which is pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: This sort of flew under the radar, but today was one of the more extreme sensible wx reversals I've seen in a while. I woke up to deep winter, temps in the mid-20s and roadways being plowed, and 12 hours later it could pass as a perfectly agreeable spring afternoon. I heard some disappointed kids outside getting out of school screaming..Wheres the snow??!!? Completely different landscape by afternoon compared to 8AM. Mostly gone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 NYC decade snow averages...NYC is averaging near 34" since 2000-01... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T.......7.8.....6.5.....13.3.....3.5......0.4....31.5 2010-11 to 2017-18......0.4.....0.6.....5.1...15.7.......9.7.....6.2........T......37.7 2010-11-2017-18... 3/22 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 What are the dynamics at play with the temperature this evening? Clear night, northwest wind, some snow on the ground… And just about everybody’s in the middle 40s closing in on 9 PM. Wasn’t really forecast… So I’m just curious what is driving the steady temperature so late in the evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 hours ago, nzucker said: Dobbs Ferry's latest freeze in recent times is 5/10/2010. Average last frost is around April 18th. I think May 5th is the 10% date. That's at 300' in Southern Westchester. 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Most greenhouses and nurseries etc. will tell you May 15 for the "after all risk of frost" date for my area, but KPOU hasn't had a subfreezing low later than April since 2013. The average last frost date is 13 days earlier than it was in the late '40s, which is pretty remarkable. It's an interesting thing to track IMO. The Farmer's Almanac has my general area at around April 26 as the average last frost date. I like this chart I found on garden.org. It's for Kinnelon, NJ (our neighbor). 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Last 28° May 1 Apr 27 Apr 24 Apr 21 Apr 19 Apr 16 Apr 14 Apr 11 Apr 7 Last 32° May 18 May 14 May 10 May 8 May 5 May 2 Apr 30 Apr 26 Apr 22 Last 36° May 30 May 26 May 23 May 21 May 19 May 16 May 14 May 11 May 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: What are the dynamics at play with the temperature this evening? Clear night, northwest wind, some snow on the ground… And just about everybody’s in the middle 40s closing in on 9 PM. Wasn’t really forecast… So I’m just curious what is driving the steady temperature so late in the evening? Partly cloudy to cloudy skies, a bit of wind and just stale airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Weeklies have no spring until end of April at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Wow, later than I thought. I thought u meant what is the latest we can get a frost . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Euro weeklies show more snow coming through the 1st week of April. Looks like a very delayed spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 12 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: I thought u meant what is the latest we can get a frost . No problem. Might be a late start to the season this year the way we're going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: No problem. Might be a late start to the season this year the way we're going. Just as well. My tomatoes are all behind schedule from the power being out a few weeks ago... would hate to waste good wx with nothing in the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: It's an interesting thing to track IMO. The Farmer's Almanac has my general area at around April 26 as the average last frost date. I like this chart I found on garden.org. It's for Kinnelon, NJ (our neighbor). 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Last 28° May 1 Apr 27 Apr 24 Apr 21 Apr 19 Apr 16 Apr 14 Apr 11 Apr 7 Last 32° May 18 May 14 May 10 May 8 May 5 May 2 Apr 30 Apr 26 Apr 22 Last 36° May 30 May 26 May 23 May 21 May 19 May 16 May 14 May 11 May 7 Yea I'm really interested in the science behind growing seasons as I'm an avid gardener. We also saw substantial shift in the USDA Hardiness Zones from 1990 to 2012 as most places warmed by half a zone (5F). I believe much of our area has gone from 6a to 6b. The expanding urban heat island has played a role in this phenomenon, too. Your climate in Kinnelon looks a bit colder. Our 10% freeze is May 5th; yours is May 18th. We have a vacation house in northern PA at 1600' in the Endless Mountains. Average last is like 5/20 and average first is like 9/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Just as well. My tomatoes are all behind schedule from the power being out a few weeks ago... would hate to waste good wx with nothing in the ground I can certainly understand that. 30 minutes ago, nzucker said: Yea I'm really interested in the science behind growing seasons as I'm an avid gardener. We also saw substantial shift in the USDA Hardiness Zones from 1990 to 2012 as most places warmed by half a zone (5F). I believe much of our area has gone from 6a to 6b. The expanding urban heat island has played a role in this phenomenon, too. Your climate in Kinnelon looks a bit colder. Our 10% freeze is May 5th; yours is May 18th. We have a vacation house in northern PA at 1600' in the Endless Mountains. Average last is like 5/20 and average first is like 9/25. Funny thing is, tracking frosts and freezes actually got me into the hobby. I wish I took notes going back further so I had more data for my specific location. I like to think the climate here is a good "in-between" in terms of the greater North Jersey area. Not quite as extreme as the high elevations of Sussex, yet there's a noticeable difference once you go roughly 5 miles east and lose elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 3 hours ago, JerseyWx said: I can certainly understand that. Funny thing is, tracking frosts and freezes actually got me into the hobby. I wish I took notes going back further so I had more data for my specific location. I like to think the climate here is a good "in-between" in terms of the greater North Jersey area. Not quite as extreme as the high elevations of Sussex, yet there's a noticeable difference once you go roughly 5 miles east and lose elevation. Yes, your area is at similar latitude to southern Westchester, but is a little bit colder, especially in radiational situations which is what frost/freeze is about. Westchester is a little more affected by urban heat island, a little hillier, and a bit more coastal. All those things lengthen the growing seasons by making frosts and freezes less common in marginal situations. Overall, however, the growing season has been getting longer. April 2016 and 2014 had some late cold, but otherwise most Aprils have been mild since the frigid 2007. I don't think we had any real hard freezes in April 2017 and 2015. 2010 was the last widespread May freeze on 5/10, but that spring was overall record warm. 2009 had some coastal 40s/interior 30s into June. The Hardiness Map also confirms that not only the growing season is lengthening, but average minimum lows are going up. NYC hasn't gotten below -1F in 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 The most recent March snowstorm is now in the books. It was Islip’s biggest March snowstorm on record with 18.4” snow. The previous record was also established on March 21-22, but in 1967 when 17.0” fell. The storm was also Islip’s 8th biggest snowstorm on record. 6 of the 8 snowstorms that brought 18” or more snow to Islip occurred after 2000. March 2018 is also Islip’s snowiest March on record with 31.9” snow. The prior record was held by 1967 when 23.3” snow fell. For the winter, Islip has received 61.3” snow. That makes winter 2017-18 the 5th snowiest winter on record at Islip. Winter 2017-18 is also the third winter out of the last five during which Islip has seen 60” or more snow. Since 2000, Islip has had 6 winters with 50” or more snow. Through the weekend, a quieter but still somewhat cooler than normal pattern is likely to persist. Next week could see some more springlike warmth based on the ensembles. However, there are hints that another strong blocking pattern could develop near the beginning of April. If so, the possibility of a colder than normal start through the first 10-15 days would exist. The latest CFSv2 actually features a colder than normal April. The EPS Weeklies also start April on a cold note with the cold relative to normal peaking toward the end of the first week of April but with cool anomalies persisting afterward. At the same time, persistent warm anomalies are forecast to develop over the southwestern United States. Taking into consideration this guidance, the possibility of an additional measurable snow event in some section of the NYC region can’t be dismissed. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/22 38.2° (2.8° below normal) 3/25 38.2°-38.6° (3/22 estimate: 38.0°-38.7°) 3/31 39.5°-41.0° (3/22 estimate: 39.1°-40.9°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 72% (3/22 estimate: 72%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or just Normal. Month to date is -2.8. Should be about -2.1 by the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 8 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro weeklies show more snow coming through the 1st week of April. Looks like a very delayed spring 88 or anyone else , where can I view the weeklies , or is that something you have to pay for on a site ? Are they available somewhere for a novice like me or others to view ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 or anyone else , where can I view the weeklies , or is that something you have to pay for on a site ? Are they available somewhere for a novice like me or others to view ? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2018032300&fh=336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 or anyone else , where can I view the weeklies , or is that something you have to pay for on a site ? Are they available somewhere for a novice like me or others to view ? Euro weeklies are only available if you pay for a model subscription on a model site, as far as I know. They need to be taken with a grain of salt as well though. They can be wrong at times, while other times they might have the right idea. It's basically the 00z EPS from that previous night rolled forward. So if the 00z run has the wrong idea, then the weeklies likely do too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 MJO shifting towards 7-8. April looks to be cool and dreary We will have a shot at snow during the 1st week but it's a small chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Impressive backdoor type cold front for early spring this weekend. Strong NNE flow with lows in the 20's for many from NE to the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 16 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Most greenhouses and nurseries etc. will tell you May 15 for the "after all risk of frost" date for my area, but KPOU hasn't had a subfreezing low later than April since 2013. The average last frost date is 13 days earlier than it was in the late '40s, which is pretty remarkable. The average last freeze date IMBY is 4/24, the latest freeze I've recorded is 5/1. (Small sample size warning, 13 seasons) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 3 hours ago, EasternLI said: Euro weeklies are only available if you pay for a model subscription on a model site, as far as I know. They need to be taken with a grain of salt as well though. They can be wrong at times, while other times they might have the right idea. It's basically the 00z EPS from that previous night rolled forward. So if the 00z run has the wrong idea, then the weeklies likely do too. Thank You Eastern-----I look at TT often but thought there was another way to view what u are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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