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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

So it continues to look as if we go into a nice warmer pattern starting on tuesday. 50s will be nice and it will be a good time to get the growing season started.

Still have to be careful about the growing season.  Not sure what it is for NYC, but here my average last frost is roughly the third week of April.

Do you have a better idea of what the average last freeze and frost is for us @rgwp96?

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5 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Still have to be careful about the growing season.  Not sure what it is for NYC, but here my average last frost is roughly the third week of April.

Do you have a better idea of what the average last freeze and frost is for us @rgwp96?

When I say growing season I'm not talking about the warm weather vegetables like tomatoes and peppers that can be damaged by frost. I always wait until early May to plant those things, when the threat of frost is gone. For late March I'm talking about cool weather vegetables like peas, broccoli and lettuce. Those things should be planted in very early Spring because frost and freeze doesn't bother them. I plant them every year in late March and have never had a problem.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks. With another round of strong blocking forecast to develop near the start of April, at least some parts of the region might see another measurable snowfall. We've gone through a remarkable stretch of winters.

Finally, with respect to spring, I believe winter will go in the books as December, January, and March while Spring will be listed as February, April, and May.

the only other winters like this one were 1983-84 and to lesser extents 1980-81, 1955-56...last year didn't get the first half cold but March was colder than February...

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks. With another round of strong blocking forecast to develop near the start of April, at least some parts of the region might see another measurable snowfall. We've gone through a remarkable stretch of winters.

Finally, with respect to spring, I believe winter will go in the books as December, January, and March while Spring will be listed as February, April, and May.

How likely is this looking at this point?

What needs to happen for this potential upcoming cooldown to be muted?

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50 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

So it continues to look as if we go into a nice warmer pattern starting on tuesday. 50s will be nice and it will be a good time to get the growing season started.

I believe avg last frost in NYC is around March 30 give or take a day. LGA being a day or so earlier than the Park.

(30 yr avg not all time)

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

So it continues to look as if we go into a nice warmer pattern starting on tuesday. 50s will be nice and it will be a good time to get the growing season started.

We are following the same weather theme since the end of August. Big temperature and pattern swings. People will start getting used to the 50's and maybe some 60's next week. Then we get an unseasonable cold shot in early April.

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48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

April 1956 had a pretty sizable snowstorm. 4.2" in NYC and 3.4" in Newark on April 8.

I was in the first grade and vaguely remember it...April 1957 had another 2-4" snowstorm...1956 started as rain...1957 started as snow and changed to heavy rain...

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13 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

From 8" of snow yesterday to nearly 50 and sunny today.

Spring!

And I hope it stays that way, I got my March & seasonal snows and I'm good till next winter. 

Not a fan of late season (post March 15) snows in general. The extended didn't look that cool to me and with averages rapidly rising, it'll still be pleasant even if it's a bit BN.

Unless it's a BDCF on an easterly flow with clouds, the worst kind of Spring weather. 

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Last 4 days of the month are going to be AN.   But rest of the next 16 look BN.   Coldest air from around the Dakotas has trouble getting quickly to the coast.

Meanwhile the next 7 days are just about normal overall at 44-45 average mean.

Without the adiabatic cooling of the last four storms, we are experiencing the real temperatures now.   I was at 38 degs. at 6AM yesterday and the vertical lift which brought the snow early drove it to 32 quickly with a little AM accumulation to boot.    But temperature hoovered at 34 degs. most of the rest of the daylight hours.  We had a chance for a fresh supply of actual cold air if there had been a triple phased system, for the third piece would have come out of Canada.

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

When I say growing season I'm not talking about the warm weather vegetables like tomatoes and peppers that can be damaged by frost. I always wait until early May to plant those things, when the threat of frost is gone. For late March I'm talking about cool weather vegetables like peas, broccoli and lettuce. Those things should be planted in very early Spring because frost and freeze doesn't bother them. I plant them every year in late March and have never had a problem.

Oh alright, I see what you're saying.  

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1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

Last 4 days of the month are going to be AN.   But rest of the next 16 look BN.   Coldest air from around the Dakotas has trouble getting quickly to the coast.

Meanwhile the next 7 days are just about normal overall at 44-45 average mean.

Without the adiabatic cooling of the last four storms, we are experiencing the real temperatures now.   I was at 38 degs. at 6AM yesterday and the vertical lift which brought the snow early drove it to 32 quickly with a little AM accumulation to boot.    But temperature hoovered at 34 degs. most of the rest of the daylight hours.  We had a chance for a fresh supply of actual cold air if there had been a triple phased system, for the third piece would have come out of Canada.

Well the coldest air has been in Eurasia for much of the late winter period. The airmass trapped under the -NAO block was not arctic in nature.

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18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

12z EPS wants a trough to hangout in the northeast in the extended. Clearly, it hates us.

I love winter, but UGH. Once we get to the last week of March, I'm done with it and rooting for warmer weather. I guess we'd better enjoy the several day warmup next week, before it gets chilly again. At least the warmup next week will give me a chance to plant the cool weather vegetables in comfortable weather. 

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I love winter, but UGH. Once we get to the last week of March, I'm done with it and rooting for warmer weather. I guess we'd better enjoy the several day warmup next week, before it gets chilly again. At least the warmup next week will give me a chance to plant the cool weather vegetables in comfortable weather. 

I never saw my annuals get hit so hard as last November. Record October warmth into early November kept the late bloom going strong. That record breaking early hard freeze just flattened everything. Glad it was just flowering plants and not vegetables.

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

I love winter, but UGH. Once we get to the last week of March, I'm done with it and rooting for warmer weather. I guess we'd better enjoy the several day warmup next week, before it gets chilly again. At least the warmup next week will give me a chance to plant the cool weather vegetables in comfortable weather. 

I'm with you here. Love winter, but it's time to move on. I wonder if this will be one of those years we flip right to summer.

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never saw my annuals get hit so hard as last November. Record October warmth into early November kept the late bloom going strong. That record breaking early hard freeze just flattened everything. Glad it was just flowering plants and not vegetables.

Yeah I remember that wild swing. My vegetable crops were going unusually strong for so late in the season, and then got crushed by that hard freeze.

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10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I remember that wild swing. My vegetable crops were going unusually strong for so late in the season, and then got crushed by that hard freeze.

These fast MJO changes have been a key player in these big swings. Looks like we warm up next week into phase 7 with an early April phase 8 cool down.

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif.f5b395b2a67a796f2c4862fc7a470e90.gif

 

 

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