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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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With 8.2 inches of snow as of 1 AM, this storm is the 7th largest springtime snow in NYC history. With light snow still falling in the Park at 2:30 it should move into the top 5 by morning as long as the Conservancy recognizes it.

1.....11.8.....March 19-20, 1958
2.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915
3.....10.0.....April 13, 1875
4.......9.6.....April 6, 1982
5.......9.0.....March 22, 1967
6.......8.5.....April 1, 1924
7.......8.2.....March 21, 2018
8.......6.5.....April 5, 1944
9.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917
10.....6.4.....April 6-7, 1938

This also brings the March snowfall total to 11.4 inches beating the 11.2 inches that fell in January. This is now the the 3rd time in the last 4 years that March will be the snowiest month of the winter season, provided we don't get a big April surprise.

This also brings the seasonal snowfall to 35.2 inches making it the 5th straight year NYC surpasses 30 inches. The only other time that happened was the winters of 1880/81 through 1884/85.

This also brings the 1991-2018 seasonal average to 30.8 inches. NYC needs 43.9 more inches of snow between now and Dec 31 2020 to have an average seasonal snowfall of 30 inches or above when the new averages are calculated for the 1991-2020 period. This  would be the first time since the 1891-1920 average of 32.2 inches, that the seasonal average would be greater than 30 inches.

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Say 13.5" in West Islip... SW Suffolk.

Considering we only had about an inch after melt and rain around 7pm... Not bad.

NWS had us pegged at 14"... Never thought we had a chance. Glad they were right.

Beautiful out.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

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Yesterday’s snowstorm brought 14.0” snow to Islip. That brought Islip’s monthly snowfall to 27.5”, making March 2018 the snowiest March on record at Islip with 27.5” snow. Central Park also picked up 8.2” snow, making the storm the 7th biggest snowfall that occurred on or after March 20. The area’s highest snowfall was 19.3” at Bay Shore.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/21 38.1° (2.8° below normal)
3/25 38.0°-38.7° (3/21 estimate: 37.9°-39.3°)
3/31 39.1°-40.9° (3/21 estimate: 39.1°-41.1°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 72% (3/21 estimate: 70%)

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Next 8 days jump to an average of 43degs., or about 2degs. BN.  Month to date is   -2.8.  Should be  -2.6 by the 30th.

Storm is nearing BM now , but in this case, it is not a good indicator---just a few weak bands are still affecting us.

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This may be the first time in history that the Northeast has experienced 4 separate March snowstorms of at least near 20" or greater. Pretty extreme coming off the warmest February on record with an 80 degree day. The 2010's just keep pushing the envelope on what is possible.

0724 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TERRYVILLE              40.91N  73.07W
03/22/2018  M19.7 INCH       SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER
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2017-18 becomes the 28th winter with four 4" or more snowstorms...five times in the last nine years...

season............snowfalls...4"+...................................Snowfall...Total 4+
1892-93.........4.0...6.0...5.0...9.1...6.0........................49.7........5......
1893-94.........6.5...7.0...4.0...8.0................................36.1........4......
1895-96.......10.0...5.0 12.0...4.5................................46.3........4......
1896-97.........5.0...7.0...6.0 10.0...8.5........................43.6........5......
1898-99.......10.0...6.0...4.0...6.5 16.0........................55.9........5......
1902-03.........6.3...6.5...4.0...9.5................................28.7........4......
1904-05.........4.0...6.0...7.0 10.0................................48.1........4......
1906-07.........6.0...5.0 11.0...6.0...4.0...6.0...5.0.....,..53.2........7......
1915-16.........6.0...6.0...5.3...7.6...4.0...5.0................50.7........6......
1916-17.......12.7...4.3...6.7...6.5................................50.7........4......
1922-23.........4.0...9.0...7.8...6.3...7.3........................60.4........5......
1933-34.......11.2...9.8...7.6...9.3...5.6........................52.0........5......
1938-39.........8.8...4.0...8.8...4.5................................37.3........4......
1948-49.........5.3 16.0...4.5...4.6...9.4........................46.6........5......
1957-58.........8.0...4.5...4.5...7.9...4.1...11.8..............44.7........6......
1963-64.........6.6 12.5...6.8...4.9................................44.7........4......
1977-78.......13.6 17.7...4.2...5.0................................50.7........4......
1984-85.........4.8...4.1...4.3...5.7................................24.1........4.....
1993-94.........4.0...4.5...9.0 12.8...5.0........................53.4........5......
1995-96.........7.7 20.2...7.5 10.7...4.5...4.5...4.1...,....75.6........7......
2002-03.........6.0...5.0...5.3 19.8...4.0........................49.8........5......
2003-04.......14.0...5.8...5.7 10.3................................42.6........4......
2004-05.......13.8...5.0...6.0...7.7................................41.0........4......
2009-10.......10.9 10.0...5.0 20.9................................51.4........4......
2010-11.......20.0...9.1...4.2 19.0................................60.9........4......

2013-14.........5.0...6.4 11.5...8.0...4.0 12.5................57.4........6......

2014-15.........9.8...5.3...4.0...4.8...7.5...4.5................50.3........6.....

2017-18.........4.6...9.8...4.4...8.4................................35.4........4.....
...
number of times by decade...
1890's...5
1900's...3
1910's...2
1920's...1
1930's...2
1940's...1
1950's...1
1960's...1
1970's...1
1980's...1
1990's...2
2000's...3
2010's...5

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2 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Second most in 11 yeas . Had 66 in 2007-2008 

And just imagine if the mid-January into February time period produced more.  I think we're done in these parts with regards to accumulating snow. Maybe some wet flakes here and there.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday’s snowstorm brought 14.0” snow to Islip. That brought Islip’s monthly snowfall to 27.5”, making March 2018 the snowiest March on record at Islip with 27.5” snow. Central Park also picked up 8.2” snow, making the storm the 7th biggest snowfall that occurred on or after March 20. The area’s highest snowfall was 19.3” at Bay Shore.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/21 38.1° (2.8° below normal)
3/25 38.0°-38.7° (3/21 estimate: 37.9°-39.3°)
3/31 39.1°-40.9° (3/21 estimate: 39.1°-41.1°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 72% (3/21 estimate: 70%)

Great Job again on the winter forecast Don.

You called this winter to be above average snowfall for most of the region and that is exactly what has happened.

My town received 2.5 last night bringing the total to 49.5, above 2000 2001 of 42.

This century is beyond comprehension with myself only experiencing 4 below average winters, and only 1 in the past 10!

Thank you for your guidance. Lets bring on spring!

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Gets tougher and tougher for accumulating snow as we move forward.  Yeah there's April 1982 but those events are rare....heck of a month to be sure-imagine if this pattern had come on 2/1 instead of 3/1?   One could probably double some of these monthly snowfall records given the marginal cold air available this month.

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Just now, nycwinter said:

should have could have would have.. if i was 7 feet tall i be playing center for the new york knicks.. you got to deal the cards you were dealt...

We were lucky to get it at all-this winter was heading for the scrap heap after a record warm Feb....

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great Job again on the winter forecast Don.

You called this winter to be above average snowfall for most of the region and that is exactly what has happened.

My town received 2.5 last night bringing the total to 49.5, above 2000 2001 of 42.

This century is beyond comprehension with myself only experiencing 4 below average winters, and only 1 in the past 10!

Thank you for your guidance. Lets bring on spring!

Thanks. With another round of strong blocking forecast to develop near the start of April, at least some parts of the region might see another measurable snowfall. We've gone through a remarkable stretch of winters.

Finally, with respect to spring, I believe winter will go in the books as December, January, and March while Spring will be listed as February, April, and May.

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