Santa Claus Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 31/13. A little breeze and cold but clear. Beautiful night. Get outside and take a deep breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Next 8 days still averaging 38degs., or 5degs. BN. Month to date is -1.5. Should be -2.5 by the 25th. GFS, CMC, EURO all have suppressed storm and agree on nothing here. Is the NAM our only salvation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 A fair and quiet weekend lies ahead. In addition, the probability of a nor’easter impacting the region early next week has declined on the guidance. The storm still cannot be dismissed, but the change in the modeling over the past 24 hours is fairly significant. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/16 38.6° (1.5° below normal) 3/20 37.9°-38.8° (3/16 estimate: 37/8°-39.0°) 3/25 37.6°-39.5° (3/16 estimate: 37.9°-40.1°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 66% (3/16 estimate: 62%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 With no big spring warm ups in the forecast, Newark has a shot at 2 temperature records. This is looking like the greatest February maximum temperature decline into March. It also appears that this will only be the 3rd time at Newark since 1931 that the March maximum temperature was cooler than both January and February. Newark Feb maximum temperature.....80......Mar.....61 so far......a -19 degree difference. 1984 dropped from 66 in February to 57 in March for a -9 degree drop. Only years with a Jan and Feb maximum temperature greater than Mar 2018....Jan...64....Feb.....80....Mar.....61 so far 2008...........66................69..............65 1933..........62.................62..............59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 GFS has trough after trough in the east with another possible storm at the end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: GFS has trough after trough in the east with another possible storm at the end of this month. 12z GFS shows a much warmer pattern coming in the week of the 26th. Hopefully it warms up in time for baseball season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 hours ago, winterwx21 said: 12z GFS shows a much warmer pattern coming in the week of the 26th. Hopefully it warms up in time for baseball season. I am ready for some warmer/severe weather. By October I will be ready for winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 hours ago, winterwx21 said: 12z GFS shows a much warmer pattern coming in the week of the 26th. Hopefully it warms up in time for baseball season. 18z doesn't at all More threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Next 8 days up to an average of 39degs., but so is mean for the period, so still 5degs. BN. Month to date is -1.7. Should be near -2.7 by the 26th. Now it is the CMC back with 15"+ on the 21st. and the GFS is looking at the 24-25th (B. Rayno idea?) EURO is still a southern miss by 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The weekend will end with more fair weather. Afterward, the forecast becomes more challenging. A series of systems will move off the East Coast, possibly consolidating into a nor’easter that could impact parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. Even as much of the guidance has trended toward a more suppressed outcome, 70% of suppressed cases (2” or more snow in Washington, DC and no snow in New York City) during the March 1-31, 1950-2017 period featured an AO-/PNA+ pattern. The AO is currently negative, but the PNA is also negative. In other words, the modeled synoptic picture showing a suppressed outcome might be subject to greater than usual uncertainty. Therefore, the systems still bear watching even as the probability of an appreciable impact from Newark and New York City northward had diminished further. For now, the focus of the heaviest snow could be the northern Delmarva to central New Jersey. Only the 6z extended RGEM brings a moderate to significant snowfall to New York City and its northern suburbs. The 6z GGEM had shifted somewhat south from its 0z run. The 0z ECMWF and 6z GFS keep NYC mainly or completely dry (the ECMWF does have a snowfall next weekend). New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/17 38.5° (1.7° below normal) 3/20 38.1°-38.7° (3/17 estimate: 37.8°-38.8°) 3/25 37.9°-39.6° (3/17 estimate: 37.9°-39.5°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 66% (3/17 estimate: 66%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Spring will still have to wait since both the Euro and GFS drop the -EPO again. We generally have to wait until mid or late spring for the EPO to have less of a cooling influence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 That's some dry air out there today...Dew points below 0 and relative humidity dropping into the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, doncat said: That's some dry air out there today...Dew points below 0 and relative humidity dropping into the teens. I think the -11 dew point at NYC may be a new record for 3-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I think its impressive how stable our temperatures have been this month. Outside of March 1st, the rest of the days have featured a daily average between 35F - 42F. Only a 7 degree difference over 17 days. During the month of February there were 16 occurrences where a day's daily average temperature was equal to or greater than +/- 7F the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Winter seems determined to linger into and through the Spring Equinox. A series of systems will exit the East Coast over the next several days. The potential for a moderate to significant snowfall south of New York City and possible a moderate snowfall in and just north of the City exists. During the course of yesterday afternoon, the models that had been suppressing the storms to the south corrected north and westward. This is not entirely surprising, as the teleconnections are inconsistent with the kind of pattern that has typically prevailed when storms have been suppressed in March. As a result, the potential for a snowy outcome bore watching, and it still does. The 0z ECMWF highlighted the potential for a significant (6” or greater) snowfall across parts of the region, including the NYC Metro Area. Even as it's somewhat of an outlier, the ECMWF indicates that even modest changes in the synoptic pattern from what is shown on the other guidance could lead to a more wintry outcome. Finally, there remains potential for another snow event late next weekend. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/18 38.3° (2.1° below normal) 3/20 38.1°-38.4° (3/18 estimate: 38.1°-38.7°) 3/25 37.9°-39.3° (3/18 estimate: 37.9°-39.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 68% (3/18 estimate: 66%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Next 8 days still averaging 39degs., or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is -2.1. Should be -3.0 by the 27th. GFS and CMC are 1" to 4" for us near 21st, and the CMC still likes the 24-25th for several inches. The EURO is farther north on the 0Z, and gives us 6"+. Our previous system is holding up near 50/50 with a pressure in the low 970mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 One of the most impressive March cold stats so far in NYC is only 1 day of 50 or warmer 3/1-3/18. The last time that NYC only had 1 day to reach 50 or higher by March 18th was 1 in 1937. There were 0 days in 1960. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the most impressive March cold stats so far in NYC is only 1 day of 50 or warmer 3/1-3/18. The last time that NYC only had 1 day to reach 50 or higher by March 18th was 1 in 1937. There were 0 days in 1960. Got pretty close last week with a high of 49 am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the most impressive March cold stats so far in NYC is only 1 day of 50 or warmer 3/1-3/18. The last time that NYC only had 1 day to reach 50 or higher by March 18th was 1 in 1937. There were 0 days in 1960. Did we have snowy march's those two years ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Got pretty close last week with a high of 49 am I right? Got close, but the only day of 50 or warmer was March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: Got close, but the only day of 50 or warmer was March 1st. Very impressive cold this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Very impressive cold this month Even more impressive when you consider the NYC 13 days of 50 or warmer in February was the 3rd highest behind 15 days in 1990. The last time NYC had 13 days of 50 or warmer in February was 2002. But March 2002 had 18 days reach 50 or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 25 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Very impressive cold this month Mostly due to highs, monthly departures are only around -2 thus far but it feels a lot colder after February's record warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the most impressive March cold stats so far in NYC is only 1 day of 50 or warmer 3/1-3/18. The last time that NYC only had 1 day to reach 50 or higher by March 18th was 1 in 1937. There were 0 days in 1960. Wasn't March 1960 the coldest month of the season----maybe the only time that has happened? Dec. '59 was way AN, but managed a pre-Christmas snowstorm and March matched it early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Mostly due to highs, monthly departures are only around -2 thus far but it feels a lot colder after February's record warmth. With only 1 day reaching 50 so far this month in NYC, the high temperature departure is -6.2 since the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 There are only eight snowfalls of 6 inches or greater after the spring equinox in New York City. Also interesting to note here there have been a total of 30 snowfalls 6 inch or greater in the month of March in New York City but only one between March 22 and March 31 but seven from April 1 through April 13. Just a curious weird anomaly. If it does happen on Wednesday it is more or less a one in twenty-year occurrence to happen in spring in New York City. The second thing to watch is if New York City, specifically Central Park, can receive three or more inches of snow on Wednesday they will surpass 30 inches on the season which would make it five years in a row of 30 or more inches of snow. This has happened only one other time in history back in the early 1880s. Considering that two of the last five meteorological winters have been among the top six warmest ever recorded that makes the snow streak even more extraordinary. 6 inch Spring Snowfalls in NYC 1.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915 2.....10.0.....April 13, 1875 3.......9.6.....April 6, 1982 4.......9.0.....March 22, 1967 5.......8.5.....April 1, 1924 6.......6.5.....April 5, 1944 7.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917 8.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Any signals on when the cold will break? This brutal, highs in the low 40s as far as the eye can see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, BrooklynSnow said: Any signals on when the cold will break? This brutal, highs in the low 40s as far as the eye can see... Mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: There are only eight snowfalls of 6 inches or greater after the spring equinox in New York City. Also interesting to note here there have been a total of 30 6 inch or greater snowfalls in the month of March in New York City but only one between March 22 and March 31 but seven from April 1 through April 13. Just a curious weird anomaly. If it does happen on Wednesday it is more or less a one in twenty-year occurrence to happen in spring in New York City. The second thing to watch is if New York City, specifically Central Park, can receive three or more inches of snow on Wednesday they will surpass 30 inches on the season which would make it five years in a row of 30 or more inches of snow. This is happened only one other time in history back in the early 1880s. Considering that two of the last five meteorological winters have been among the top six warmest ever recorded that makes the snow streak even more extraordinary. 6 inch Spring Snowfalls in NYC 1.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915 2.....10.0.....April 13, 1875 3.......9.6.....April 6, 1982 4.......9.0.....March 22, 1967 5.......8.5.....April 1, 1924 6.......6.5.....April 5, 1944 7.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917 8.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938 The 1910-1930 period was quite snowy in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 hours ago, bluewave said: With only 1 day reaching 50 so far this month in NYC, the high temperature departure is -6.2 since the 7th. Windy month also with afternoon evening stratocu keeping night temps up a bit compared to daytime...Managed to decouple here last night and hit 26 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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