NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There is I think the models are too warm given the crashing AO. so you are saying NYC gets snow with storm # 1 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: so you are saying NYC gets snow with storm # 1 ? Rain and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: There is I think the models are too warm given the crashing AO. There’s more to the AO. The numbers are crashing because all of cold being dislodged into Europe. The AO could be -10 and we could still be warm. We basically need a repeat of the post sandy storm to get it done on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rain and snow I think as the storm bombs out we can get a period of 6 hours of heavy wet snow. Look at the Euro depiction I don't see why the snow doesn't show up with those dynamics. All the columns are cold enough except the surface I think if we precipitate with CCb we will snow and we could get a few inches out of this. Same thing is happening on the CMC. We will have to keep an eye on that especially if the storm bombs out more south and all that precip from new England hits us instead we can snow a decent amount here. I know I said we would only get rain but the dynamics are there for a heavy rain to a paste bomb. And you know what we always say you don' want to be in the jackpot area 5 days out Look at the 540 line that crashes Friday 18z I think if this storm is a bit more snow we can snow for a good 6 hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There’s more to the AO. The numbers are crashing because all of cold being dislodged into Europe. The AO could be -10 and we could still be warm. We basically need a repeat of the post sandy storm to get it done on the coast. Bingo! The cold all went to the other side of the globe. -AO doesn’t always mean cold on our side of the hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 When you have lost me and the feen as far as a potential snow event it’s time to throw in the towel. I still like the second storm for the coast. And I still think anyone above 2k has a real shot at a major blue bomb with this one. But that’s the thing, how many places are above 2k? Hopefully it doesn’t trend any further south so the ski resorts can get pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: When you have lost me and the feen as far as a potential snow event it’s time to throw in the towel. I still like the second storm for the coast. And I still think anyone above 2k has a real shot at a major blue bomb with this one. But that’s the thing, how many places are above 2k? Hopefully it doesn’t trend any further south so the ski resorts and get pounded It's still early to give up. We have seen many times this winter how the models have struggled in mid range. The block is causing havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: It's still early to give up. We have seen many times this winter how the models have struggled in mid range. The block is causing havoc. That’s the thing though. The only way this is snow on the coast is if that primary dies super fast and this thing goes bokers right on the bench mark and sits. In that exactly perfect scenerio you may be able to create enough cold air. Anything other then that and it’s rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s the thing though. The only way this is snow on the coast is if that primary dies super fast and this thing goes bokers right on the bench mark and sits. In that exactly perfect scenerio you may be able to create enough cold air. Anything other then that and it’s rain for the coast. You're right but that's the thing it's so close to that solution soooo close it's not even funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: You're right but that's the thing it's so close to that solution soooo close it' not even funny! Yes and we still have time on our side Given the pattern , expect a south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Bingo! The cold all went to the other side of the globe. -AO doesn’t always mean cold on our side of the hemisphere After this storm the airmass is better with the rising PNA and dropping EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 All this block did was trap a crappy airmass.....rain and low 40's is the most likely outcome on Friday for this subforum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: All this block did was trap a crappy airmass.....rain and low 40's is the most likely outcome on Friday for this subforum.... Besides the surface, people need to realize that the same temps and thicknesses aloft that would bring snow in January, don’t work anymore in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I could care less if it snows, I'm more curious in how this storm will develop and what impacts it'll have. The track is very important because of coastal impacts, there are some strong solutions popping up already. A block this strong does lead me to believe a more southern track is likely, I'm thinking off the Delmarva for that secondary. This is not your typical Greenland block, for one it's up there with some of the strongest on record and it's not locked in. The block develops but keeps shifting, unlike blocking patterns of 09/10 and 10/11 that remained static. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: All this block did was trap a crappy airmass.....rain and low 40's is the most likely outcome on Friday for this subforum.... Too early to say most likely outcome. Come on Brian , let's get to wed before declaring anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Too early to say most likely outcome. Come on Brian , let's get to wed before declaring anything. There is no indication that this will be anything other then rain for the immediate NYC metro - show me anybody who is forecasting frozen . Also I am beginning to have my doubts as to whether we get anything more then a cheap thrill from this upcoming pattern in regards to snowfall in the immediate NYC metro - north and west might be another story...…... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: There is no indication that this will be anything other then rain for the immediate NYC metro - show me anybody who is forecasting frozen . Also I am beginning to have my doubts as to whether we get anything more then a cheap thrill from this upcoming pattern in regards to snowfall in the immediate NYC metro - north and west might be another story...…... No indication ? Crashing AO and NAO ? Same people who declare a storm done a week out is already declaring this over Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Yes and we still have time on our side Given the pattern , expect a south shift. A south shift may not mean more snow near the coast if there’s no cold air. And there’s also a ton of warm ocean air that’ll be brought in on the east flow, and there’s a primary that’ll also flood in warm air. A south shift also means a stronger easterly flow into the coast and tidal flooding. So definitely count me out on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Looks like PB and I are the only ones who think this storm might not done be done trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: No indication ? Crashing AO and NAO ? Same people who declare a storm done a week out is already declaring this over Unbelievable. No one’s indicating the storm’s over at all. It’ll still be a nasty storm if it’s a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: A south shift may not mean more snow near the coast if there’s no cold air. And there’s also a ton of warm ocean air that’ll be brought in on the east flow, and there’s a primary that’ll also flood in warm air. A south shift also means a stronger easterly flow into the coast and tidal flooding. So definitely count me out on that. Rain to snow will be the deal with this storm Already giving up a week out ? Some of you haven't learned anything this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like PB and I are the only ones who think this storm might not done be done trending south. There are talks that although the air mass isn't cold that it may pull dynamically cooled air as it intensifies. Tip had a good discussion about it in the NE forum. So although very unlikely, I'm not discounting the snow idea. Also trusting the thermal profiles this far out is silly, they'll probably miss the mark on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rain to snow will be the deal with this storm Already giving up a week out ? Some of you haven't learned anything this winter. OK then. I’m not saying there’s no possibility of snow near the coast but the odds for anything more than a surprise few inches at the end or something are definitely against us. The odds are definitely better along I-90 especially elevated, maybe Boston too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There are talks that although the air mass isn't cold that it may pull dynamically cooled air as it intensifies. Tip had a good discussion about it in the NE forum. So although very unlikely, I'm not discounting the snow idea. No doubt New England is the most favorable spot for any frozen out of the later week storm 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No indication ? Crashing AO and NAO ? Same people who declare a storm done a week out is already declaring this over Unbelievable. ??? no one is saying there won't be a storm - BUT you didn't answer my question about anyone except you and other non - Mets predicting any frozen in NYC - which guidance is entertaining your idea ? Sure storm might end up developing further south off the Del Marva but with very little cold enough air available the wind flow will be off the warmer then normal Atlantic Ocean in a long stretch. Will be hard to get much dynamic cooling here is the storm starts drifting east - southeast and weakening as some guidance is suggesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Remember the 2nd storm comes with a much more favorable pacific and airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There are talks that although the air mass isn't cold that it may pull dynamically cooled air as it intensifies. Tip had a good discussion about it in the NE forum. So although very unlikely, I'm not discounting the snow idea. SNE, even Boston doesn’t need as much help from cold air as we do down here. Our airmass may be warmed more by the primary and easterly winds from a warmer ocean at this latitude. I can maybe see a window for some snow to the coast with a bombing upper air low tracking underneath for a while, but it’s a big stretch to say it’ll be significant. You want to be well north and west in NY, CT or Sussex County NJ and elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: No doubt New England is the most favorable spot for any frozen out of the later week storm ??? no one is saying there won't be a storm - BUT you didn't answer my question about anyone except you and other non - Mets predicting any frozen in NYC - which guidance is entertaining your idea ? Sure storm might end up developing further south off the Del Marva but with very little cold enough air available the wind flow will be off the warmer then normal Atlantic Ocean in a long stretch. Will be hard to get much Dynamic cooling her is the storm starts drifting east - southeast and weakening as some guidance is suggesting Who cares about the guidance right now. I know the pattern and I think it will trend south and colder. We have seen this many times with blocking regimes. Eps got better in regards to the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No indication ? Crashing AO and NAO ? Same people who declare a storm done a week out is already declaring this over Unbelievable. THERE'S NO COLD AIR!!! March 2010 was colder than this and it rained for all 3 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 88 keep up the good fight--- hard to not admire your spunk,,,,,lots of time lets see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: THERE'S NO COLD AIR!!! March 2010 was colder than this and it rained for all 3 storms. The good news is there will be cold air for the day 10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.