March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

March mean temperature is 37F here so far, 4 degrees below February's. My mean high of 43F is a full seven degrees below February's mean high of 50F. That's incredible.

It's interesting that the most extreme reversals following 40 degree or warmer Februaries since 1980 have been within a year or two of super El Nino events. Even more extreme to have this happen two years in a row. 

NYC stats

82-83  super El Nino

Feb 84...40.6...Mar...36.7.....March 84 Noreaster 

 

97-98 super El Nino

Feb 97...40.0...Mar...41.9......April Fools Snowstorm

 

15-16 super El Nino

Feb 17...41.6...Mar...39.2...........record March blizzard

Feb 18..42.0....Mar...38.7 so far....multiple  record March snows

 

 

 

[gravitylover]

Ended up with about 1" total from all of the squalls yesterday. Pavement cleared off almost immediately with the sun this morning but snow covered surfaces are sparkly white. Looks great for mid March  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just a coating last night in wantagh. As usual all the best “squalls” were just to my east

[doncat]

37 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

March mean temperature is 37F here so far, 4 degrees below February's. My mean high of 43F is a full seven degrees below February's mean high of 50F. That's incredible.

Mother nature has gotten confused past two years and mixed up February and March.

[allgame830]

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models in general agreement with the large scale CONUS omega
blocking pattern mid week, gradually breaking down heading into the
weekend. The stubborn SE Canadian upper low of this week will
gradually weaken and lift towards Greenland this weekend, replaced
by a quick moving but intense polar low. Meanwhile a closed upper
low currently over the PAC gradually gets caught up in the southern
stream and rolls its way across the country this weekend. This
energy will eventually facilitate phasing between the northern and
southern stream into the Eastern US early to mid next week. There is
good model agreement in resultant deep Eastern US troughing
development by mid week, but quite a bit of model spread in the
timing, intensity and track of the closed upper low anchoring this
trough.

SBU CSTAR ensemble sensitivity analysis is keying in on the
evolution of the NW US closed upper low, but more so the downstream
effects of a strong closed, cutoff low developing south of the
Aleutians and dominating the eastern PAC this weekend. It appears
that shortwave energy (wavepacket) emanating from this Aleutian/E
Pac low is the forcing for N/S stream phasing and development of a
coastal low during the Mon Night into Wed Night time frame.
Significant model spread in this time period is lending to a low
confidence forecast on the timing, track and intensity of coastal
low pressure/s Monday night into Wednesday Night. The signal has
been consistent for a period or periods of precip with a complex low
pressure system during Mon Night into Wed Night, but details on
precip type and amounts, strength and duration of winds, and other
sensible hazards is low at this time. Monitor subsequent forecasts
through the weekend as the energies and interactions above become
better resolved by NWP.

Before then a relatively tranquil, fair and below seasonable temp
pattern for the region Friday Night into Monday in between streams
of a split upper flow. A strong polar low swings through Northern
England this weekend, sending a polar front through the region late
Saturday. Meanwhile, appears shortwave energy that pivots around the
base of the Western US closed low today, will remain riding along
the southern stream. This will have a quick moving southern low
tracking well south of the region this weekend. Will have to watch
for any interaction between these streams to ride this low further
north, but unlikely at this point. Primary uncertainty during this
time period is magnitude of polar air that sinks south into the
region Saturday Night into Sunday, as there is model spread on this.
Temps could be a few degrees cooler than forecast if the polar low
sinks a bit further south.

[purduewx80]

squalls this evening may be more impressive than yesterday's. would not be at all surprised to see +SHSN given steep lapse rates from the sfc to 600mb that tap the DGZ. probably will be a few cgs over the mountains this afternoon, as well.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

squalls this evening may be more impressive than yesterday's. would not be at all surprised to see +SHSN given steep lapse rates from the sfc to 600mb that tap the DGZ. probably will be a few cgs over the mountains this afternoon, as well.

The HRRR is really impressive, almost tries to put together a squall line just North of Rt 80.

[allgame830]

39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The HRRR is really impressive, almost tries to put together a squall line just North of Rt 80.

Can you post a depiction id love to see? thanks!

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, allgame830 said:

Can you post a depiction id love to see? thanks!

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

BRING IT NORTH JUST A LITTLE LOL.... na its all good.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday featured mainly sunny skies but somewhat below normal readings. The cool period is likely to continue into next week, possibly culminating with yet another nor’easter.

Some of the guidance continues to suggest the potential for a moderate to significant snowfall across parts of the region, possibly even in the New York City and Newark Metro Areas.

So far, March snowfall on Long Island and parts of central New York State is running well above monthly averages. A number of cities have already achieved snowfall totals that rank March 2018 as among the snowiest years on record for March.

Monthly Snowfall through March 15:
Albany: 36.0" (3rd highest)
Binghamton: 30.1" (7th highest)
Islip: 13.5" (4th highest)
Syracuse: 42.2" (3rd highest)

March Records:
Albany: 50.9", 1888
Binghamton: 46.5", 2001
Islip: 23.3", 1967
Syracuse: 54.4", 1993

Finally, it now appears that March will have a cold anomaly across much of the region. In terms of the overall monthly temperature, it is possible that March could wind up colder than February was in New York City’s Central Park.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/15 38.8° (3/15 estimate: 38.5°-38.9°; 1.1° below normal)
3/20 37.8°-39.0° (3/15 estimate: 38.0°-39.4°)
3/25 37.9°-40.1°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 62% (3/15 estimate: 60%)

[CIK62]

Next 8 days down to an average of 38degs., or 5degs. BN.

Month to date is   -1.1.   Should be about -2.5 by the 24th.

Today it is the GFS that is wild at 16".[06Z is 8", but with mixed precip. otherwise]  CMC and EURO are about 8" each.   The rain seems to be mostly gone.  The NAVGEM for what it is worth, has two separate systems Tues. AM to Thurs. PM.

Buoy 44065 is predicted to have 13' seas, up from 8' yesterday.

Any model predicting more than 10" would be suspect, since virtually all events after Mar. 20, cutoff below that I would think.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday featured mainly sunny skies but somewhat below normal readings. The cool period is likely to continue into next week, possibly culminating with yet another nor’easter.

Some of the guidance continues to suggest the potential for a moderate to significant snowfall across parts of the region, possibly even in the New York City and Newark Metro Areas.

So far, March snowfall on Long Island and parts of central New York State is running well above monthly averages. A number of cities have already achieved snowfall totals that rank March 2018 as among the snowiest years on record for March.

Monthly Snowfall through March 15:
Albany: 36.0" (3rd highest)
Binghamton: 30.1" (7th highest)
Islip: 13.5" (4th highest)
Syracuse: 42.2" (3rd highest)

March Records:
Albany: 50.9", 1888
Binghamton: 46.5", 2001
Islip: 23.3", 1967
Syracuse: 54.4", 1993

Finally, it now appears that March will have a cold anomaly across much of the region. In terms of the overall monthly temperature, it is possible that March could wind up colder than February was in New York City’s Central Park.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/15 38.8° (3/15 estimate: 38.5°-38.9°; 1.1° below normal)
3/20 37.8°-39.0° (3/15 estimate: 38.0°-39.4°)
3/25 37.9°-40.1°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 62% (3/15 estimate: 60%)

Hey Don,

I am just away from the immediate coast in CT and have 19.5 inches of snow to date and I believe is the 2nd highest in my area the past 30 years, with March 2015 being the highest with 20.

Would you happen to know how close Bridgeport and Danbury are to March records?

Many thanks.

[bluewave]

Coldest temperatures of the month so far coming in over the weekend. This is unusual  for the area since the coldest March temperature usually come earlier in the month.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Don,

I am just away from the immediate coast in CT and have 19.5 inches of snow to date and I believe is the 2nd highest in my area the past 30 years, with March 2015 being the highest with 20.

Would you happen to know how close Bridgeport and Danbury are to March records?

Many thanks.

I don't have the daily figures for Danbury. It seems they aren't posted until after the month. Bridgeport's 11.5" ranks as the 9th snowiest March. 1958 is just ahead of 2018 with 12.6".

[EastonSN+]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I don't have the daily figures for Danbury. It seems they aren't posted until after the month. Bridgeport's 11.5" ranks as the 9th snowiest March. 1958 is just ahead of 2018 with 12.6".

Thanks Don.

[Isotherm]

Early Spring is not coming this year. We will essentially experience a "hand-off" of forcing mechanisms, such that one set of variables favoring cold will transition to another set of variables, still favoring cold. The torque discussion and momentum removal/addition plays a significant role, and the concomitant wave-breaks involved. The negative NAO signal will collapse following this storm, at least temporarily, but the -EPO/+PNA will then become preeminent.

 

 

 

[allgame830]

18 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Early Spring is not coming this year. We will essentially experience a "hand-off" of forcing mechanisms, such that one set of variables favoring cold will transition to another set of variables, still favoring cold. The torque discussion and momentum removal/addition plays a significant role, and the concomitant wave-breaks involved. The negative NAO signal will collapse following this storm, at least temporarily, but the -EPO/+PNA will then become preeminent.

 

 

 

that leads me to believe that we could see snow chances up until the mid of April... thats pretty outstanding.

[Eduardo]

18 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Early Spring is not coming this year. We will essentially experience a "hand-off" of forcing mechanisms, such that one set of variables favoring cold will transition to another set of variables, still favoring cold. The torque discussion and momentum removal/addition plays a significant role, and the concomitant wave-breaks involved. The negative NAO signal will collapse following this storm, at least temporarily, but the -EPO/+PNA will then become preeminent.

 

 

 

How if at all do shorter wavelengths play a role here though?  Does a -EPO favor cold regardless of season?

[winterwx21]

Maybe not an early Spring and probably still slightly below average temps, but we are expecting a milder pattern starting around the 25th. We should at least start seeing seeing high temps around 50 on a more regular basis.

[donsutherland1]

A snow shower moved through Larchmont and Mamaroneck a short time ago.

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A snow shower moved through Larchmont and Mamaroneck a short time ago.

Yup same here at work in New Rochelle.

[Rjay]

Sun flurries 

[uncle W]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Coldest temperatures of the month so far coming in over the weekend. This is unusual  for the area since the coldest March temperature usually come earlier in the month.

 

 

 

2010 had its coldest temp on the 29th with 29 degrees...

1964 had its coldest temp of March on the 31st...22 degrees...1965 was 21 on 3/21...1966 was 24 on 3/28...1967 was 8 on 3/19...for years in a row with the lowest min. came after the 18th...1973-74-76 and 77 had mins the 18th-28th...seems this wasn't that unusual back then...

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

2010 had its coldest temp on the 29th with 29 degrees...

1964 had its coldest temp of March on the 31st...22 degrees...1965 was 21 on 3/21...1966 was 24 on 3/28...1967 was 8 on 3/19...for years in a row with the lowest min. came after the 18th...1973-74-76 and 77 had mins the 18th-28th...seems this wasn't that unusual back then...

Yeah, those late March mins have been uncommon recently. The last 7 Marches all had the min temp during the first week.

NYC March minimum temperatures...

3-5-17

3-3-16

3-6-15

3-4-14

3-4-13

3-6-12

3-3-11

 

 

[Juliancolton]

Good way of visualizing how much interior snowpack has increased over the last 2-3 weeks. Generally bare ground everywhere except the 'dacks in late Feb to as much as 6" of SWE locked up in parts of the Catskills currently.

[EastonSN+]

Am I seeing things, or does the CMC and EURO drop the cold hamer day 8 on, with another snowstorm to boot.

[mranger48]

Am I seeing things, or does the CMC and EURO drop the cold hamer day 8 on, with another snowstorm to boot.

A few meteorologist, including DT on Twitter, seem to be keying in on a possible east coast snow AFTER next weeks storm or nonstorm, next weekend


.

[Stormlover74]

45 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

 

A few meteorologist, including DT on Twitter, seem to be keying in on a possible east coast snow AFTER next weeks storm or nonstorm, next weekend


.

 

Let's worry about this one first.

[allgame830]

The GEFS are way more amped up... so toss the OP run.