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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Let's hope for a repeat because that would include the NYC metro which has "missed" out on all 3 so far.... 

Maybe you haven't heard, but this is an accurate map of the "entire" NY metro area

I know some people argue as to whether or not Pike and Ulster Counties should be included, but they are no further away from NYC than Eastern Suffolk is.

Image result for nyc metro area

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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Maybe you haven't heard, but this is an accurate map of the "entire" NY metro area

I know some people argue as to whether or not Pike and Ulster Counties should be included, but they are no further away from NYC than Eastern Suffolk is.

Image result for nyc metro area

well maybe i should put immediate in front NYC metro area.... because the 5 boroughs have not faired well at all....

Storm 1: Mainly interior

Storm 2: Interior Jersey into the LHV then down across LI

Storm 3: Eastern LI

...so do you get the point that I am trying to make

The only storm that has worked in their favor is the Jan 4th Blizzard.

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Just now, allgame830 said:

well maybe i should put immediate in front NYC metro area.... because the 5 boroughs have not faired well at all....

Storm 1: Mainly interior

Storm 2: Interior Jersey into the LHV then down across LI

Storm 3: Eastern LI

...so do you get the point that I am trying to make

The only storm that has worked in their favor is the Jan 4th Blizzard.

Or you could just specify NYC proper ;)

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4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

well maybe i should put immediate in front NYC metro area.... because the 5 boroughs have not faired well at all....

Storm 1: Mainly interior

Storm 2: Interior Jersey into the LHV then down across LI

Storm 3: Eastern LI

...so do you get the point that I am trying to make

The only storm that has worked in their favor is the Jan 4th Blizzard.

No cold air, that's been the issue-not going to accumulate in the city with marginal temps in March.  Had any of these storms been preceded by real arctic air it would have been a very different story

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air, that's been the issue-not going to accumulate in the city with marginal temps in March.  Had any of these storms been preceded by real arctic air it would have been a very different story

Well i think next week would be the best opportunity considering the cold airmass in place... just need to get everything in favor.

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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

That's a very charitable map of the "metro"... if you passed someone on the trail up Mt. Riga or along the shores of Lake Wallenpaupack and said "Nice day in the NYC area today, isn't it?", they'd probably just shoot you.

I believe that map might be what's included as the NYC TV market. 

We can debate about the outer edges, but what's not debatable is that Rockland, Sussex, Passaic, Bergen, Orange and Westchester Counties are all well within the metro, all of which have seen a very nice March in terms of snowfall. And the same with parts of Long Island, particularly in Suffolk, North of the NSP.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I believe that map might be what's included as the NYC TV market. 

We can debate about the outer edges, but what's not debatable is that Rockland, Sussex, Passaic, Bergen, Orange and Westchester Counties are all well within the metro, all of which has seen a very nice March in terms of snowfall. And the same with parts of Long Island, particularly in Suffolk, North of the NSP.

Correct on that.... but just outside the boroughs fairs a much different climate then the boroughs themselves.... ahh w/e this can be debated for like 10 pages 

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1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Correct on that.... but just outside the boroughs fairs a much different climate then the boroughs themselves.... ahh w/e this can be debated for like 10 pages 

Generally speaking, you're not only dealing with an urbanized environment in NYC, but also close proximity to the ocean and LI sound. Combine that with marginal temperatures and a March sun angle and you're going to have issues accumulating.

I had issues accumulating out here with two out of the three storms myself. It helps to be parked under a 40+dbz band for hours.

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15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Generally speaking, you're not only dealing with an urbanized environment in NYC, but also close proximity to the ocean and LI sound. Combine that with marginal temperatures and a March sun angle and you're going to have issues accumulating.

I had issues accumulating out here with two out of the three storms myself. It helps to be parked under a 40+dbz band for hours.

Yes, I had issues accumulating as well with storm #2 but at 12:30pm all hell break lose and i got 10 inches so i didnt care. Yes we all know what you got.... like 4 feet right lol haha jk

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3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Terrific post.  I know many enjoy the model tracking but I'm more of a results guy.  For example, NFL Draft Day can be mildly interesting but not as interesting to me as results on the field when the season starts.    

Thanks. I try to stick to general forecast themes until the models get close or consistent enough for the details. But the complexity of our forecasts between the mountains and the coastal plain can get tiring at times with winter weather. 

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1 minute ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

It’s been light snowing here all day since I woke up here in poconos.

now 1 inch per hour rates, with still barely anything on radar.  Low toppers.

Might be about to get something here with the radar blossoming a little over NW NJ. Had a nice squall come through Monday night that dropped a quick coating. This one looks more impressive than that one did on radar.

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15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I must have 35 inches so far this year on S.I. ...NYC with 28...usually they get more unless its under measured..

That was the problem with yesterday. I got 1.5” at Columbia. That’s very very close to the park. Snowgoose even posted a pic of snow in the park. It was bound to happen at some point that they wouldn’t measure. 

37” on the year in wantagh 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That was the problem with yesterday. I got 1.5” at Columbia. That’s very very close to the park. Snowgoose even posted a pic of snow in the park. It was bound to happen at some point that they wouldn’t measure. 

37” on the year in wantagh 

I was perfectly fine with this winter until the three disasters in a week down here. I’m above average for snow but could easily have 20” more with a few minor changes in the last three storms. Central Park is probably a few inches low for the season, but this became a latitude winter that favored NY and New England like most Ninas do sooner or later. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I was perfectly fine with this winter until the three disasters in a week down here. I’m above average for snow but could easily have 20” more with a few minor changes in the last three storms. Central Park is probably a few inches low for the season, but this became a latitude winter that favored NY and New England like most Ninas do sooner or later. 

It has been an unusual back and forth between storm tracks favoring Suffolk and the interior. Both areas wound up over 40" with less near NYC. Seems like the March blizzard last year started this process. Many years in the past favored one or the other but not both. 

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Another unusual Feb-March variance. March will likely end up several degrees lower than what we saw in Feb just like last year. 

Not a good thing if you're a snow lover. If we switched the Feb-March patterns this year, we would've been swimming in feet of snow. Instead it's nothing but painful close calls and a delayed spring.

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8 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Or you could just specify NYC proper ;)

That would leave out the areas of NJ immediately to the west of the city, who also didn't jackpot on any of the storms. But it's not like we didn't have a winter; we'd be in a big hole with snow days had two of the smaller storms not occurred on weekends; both the Jan 4 and the March 2 nd storms were enough to close most schools in the area for 2 days each, for reasons unique to each storm ( extreme cold in the first and power outages and difficult removal in the 2nd ). We are now slightly above average snowfall, despite the boring Feb making it seem like a dud of a winter when other than that it wasn't. We'll get a big one again. i guarantee it. Probably not this year, but we will. I just need a snowblower that can handle wet snow....

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Maybe you haven't heard, but this is an accurate map of the "entire" NY metro area

I know some people argue as to whether or not Pike and Ulster Counties should be included, but they are no further away from NYC than Eastern Suffolk is.

Image result for nyc metro area

Would you believe I have read people commute to the city from Pike Co? Don't know anyone but I read it somewhere. And I know people that took a van shuttle from Ocean Co every day to Manhattan to work in advertising.

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5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Generally speaking, you're not only dealing with an urbanized environment in NYC, but also close proximity to the ocean and LI sound. Combine that with marginal temperatures and a March sun angle and you're going to have issues accumulating.

I had issues accumulating out here with two out of the three storms myself. It helps to be parked under a 40+dbz band for hours.

It was dry air that did us in March 2nd, according to JM. 

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18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Would you believe I have read people commute to the city from Pike Co? Don't know anyone but I read it somewhere. And I know people that took a van shuttle from Ocean Co every day to Manhattan to work in advertising.

Don't know if they were from Pike, but I have definitely followed commuters on the highway all the way to NYC from the Scranton area before. Multiple times.

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21 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Legitimately heavy snow falling and accumulating on all surfaces. It started around 3 this afternoon and varied in intensity for about 2 1/2 hours and for the last half hour has been getting progressively heavier to the point where it's down to about 150 yards visibility now. Yay :wacko:

The 500 mb temperatures just to our south nearly set the record for the coldest in March. So this is one really impressive cold core UL for March producing the snow squalls.

 

5aa9a2929a506_Screenshot2018-03-14at6_27_29PM.png.54a63b0f00f363914a6b1427085cd74b.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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