JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 This storm fit the classic March criteria here: About 3-4" of snow that vanished faster than it took to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 8 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I got my 4 to 5 in Monmouth and up to 12 in E Suffolk , so the revised #s for number 3 worked. This one just took off to the N and E I don't want to say what # 4 is ( more widespread) or Forky will say all I do is call for snow. I will leave it at that Don. And you know better than to take a shot at him because he is far and away the best meteorologist on this board and it’s not close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Yesterday’s snowstorm brought more than 10” snow to parts of Suffolk County and widespread 12”-24” amounts in eastern New England. As an upper-level disturbance passes, snow showers and possibly even a heavier snow squall will be possible in parts of the area today. For now, yesterday’s snowstorm is the first March or April snowstorm that brought 10” or more snow to Boston and only a trace of snow to Washington, DC, Philadelphia, and New York City. All 13 previous such storms going back to March 1891 brought measurable snowfall to at least one of those three cities. In addition, Boston’s monthly snowfall had risen to 21.5”, making March 2018 the 7th snowiest March on record there. Following today’s possible snow showers and snow squall, a period of benign but generally cooler than normal weather will follow. Next week could see another storm exiting the East Coast. Whether that storm will bring additional snow to the Northeast or pass to the south affecting such cities as Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia remains to be seen. Right now, I believe at least some measurable snow for much of the region is a more likely outcome than a complete miss, especially as that storm could be interacting with an unseasonably cold air mass at least at the onset. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/12 38.9° (0.7° below normal) 3/15 38.5°-38.9° (3/13 estimate: 38.6°-39.4°) 3/20 38.0°-39.4° (3/13 estimate: 38.1°-40.2°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 40% (3/13 estimate: 42%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 7 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: And you know better than to take a shot at him because he is far and away the best meteorologist on this board and it’s not close. Thanks for the kind words. However, I didn't interpret PB's message that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Next 8 days still averaging about 39degs., or 3degs. BN. Month to date is at -0.70. Excellent agreement on CFS WEEKLIES that we go through rest of month with no major warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 So both 0z GFS and EURO still have the coastal.... the GFS was a benchmark track while the EURO was more tucked in. Lots will change but I would hedge to bet in favor of yet another noreaster for us next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 19 hours ago, uncle W said: the city did well considering the warm Feb...it's near the long term average of 28.4"...I dont know what was measured in CP but they under measure at times especially with events like today... They under measured for the January storm as well it should have been closer to 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 10 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: And you know better than to take a shot at him because he is far and away the best meteorologist on this board and it’s not close. I had to read this 5 x before I realized who wrote it I replied to Don ( who I happened to know is as talented as they come ) that I like the threat next week The chide was that FORKY will say all I do is see snow ( means he would chide me , so I will not go all in at this range ) How you got anything else out of that is beyond me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 This was the greatest positive snowfall reversal for ISP in March from February. ISP had the 8th lowest February snowfall total with only 1.4 inches. So far March is the 4th highest with 13.3 inches. The temperature reversal has also been very impressive. February featured the highest number of 50 degree days at 13. So far, only 1 day has reached 50 in March with none in the immediate forecast. The records for lowest number of March 50 degree days are 2 in 1984 and 5 in 2015. This is a continuation of the most recent wild temperature and pattern roller coaster ride which began in late August and early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Thanks for the kind words. However, I didn't interpret PB's message that way. Don I am sorry you even had to address that He is the last of the remaining idiots and when they finally punt him this board will benefit immeasurably Anyway I still like the threat next week in the face of the models trending N I would like to see if the models are once again missing -EPO HP that will get injected through the UMW under the block Not sure yet , but that would be expected correction in about 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Don I am sorry you even had to address that He is the last of the remaining idiots and when they finally punt him this board will benefit immeasurably Anyway I still like the threat next week in the face of the models trending N I would like to see if the models are once again missing -EPO HP that will get injected through the UMW under the block Not sure yet , but that would be expected correction in about 3 days Really hoping for a colder airmass if this one works out, cant stomach a 4th white rain storm in the city, has been brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Really hoping for a colder airmass if this one works out, cant stomach a 4th white rain storm in the city, has been brutal. The airmass in front of this will be Arctic in nature You will need to fix the track , the block is weaker but the EPO falls rapidly So all you need is for HP to eject over the top of the SW in the plains and it would probably press even under a weak block However its far off , so it's better to just wait it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Forky is not the best we all know that heck I enjoy pb, rjay and snow88 discussions more cause they actually have something to say. Forkys trolling kills it for me, he is talented I'm sure but he trolls too much Forky is one of the top 3 posters on this board (not that the NYC sub-forum is flooded with knowledgeable Mets like the SNE thread is). People often times confuse reality with negativity (and trolling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Don I am sorry you even had to address that He is the last of the remaining idiots and when they finally punt him this board will benefit immeasurably Anyway I still like the threat next week in the face of the models trending N I would like to see if the models are once again missing -EPO HP that will get injected through the UMW under the block Not sure yet , but that would be expected correction in about 3 days No worries. He misinterpreted your message. I'm looking forward to next week. In recent years, it hasn't been often when the region had so many shots of snow. With a fresh Arctic air mass preceding the storm, the possible event has a lot of appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 As I said in the model thread, I like the look for next week. It's going to come down to how strong the blocking ends up. Too strong and this is a DC to Philly special. Too weak and the primary floods the area with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Forky is not the best we all know that heck I enjoy pb, rjay and snow88 discussions more cause they actually have something to say. Forkys trolling kills it for me, he is talented I'm sure but he trolls too much this is the kind of the stuff that needs to stop on this subforum.... in fact I have been recently jumping into the NE forum (which had VERY little of bickering in their discussion for this past storm BTW) a lot more because of all the bickering and whining that a lot do on here. this forum needs to get better and its not by the moderators deleting, moving posts or even 5 posting someone or giving them a time out. it is up to us to stop this crap and make the board enjoyable and knowledgeable. it gets exhausting.... ACT LIKE ADULTS!! ok that's my rant Rjay/BxEngine... please leave this here everyone needs to read 50 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Forky is one of the top 3 posters on this board (not that the NYC sub-forum is flooded with knowledgeable Mets like the SNE thread is). People often times confuse reality with negativity (and trolling). Yes correct SNE thread has a lot of Mets that are consistently posting we need more of that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As I said in the model thread, I like the look for next week. It's going to come down to how strong the blocking ends up. Too strong and this is a DC to Philly special. Too weak and the primary floods the area with warmth. So then the ultimate solution for the entire subforum would be somewhere in the middle... with 6 days away that is definitely possible. models will be jumping all around until then and to note I also like next week as well. lets keep this discussion active like our rivals over in New England!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So then the ultimate solution for the entire subforum would be somewhere in the middle... with 6 days away that is definitely possible. models will be jumping all around until then and to note I also like next week as well. lets keep this discussion active like our rivals over in New England!!!! This is definitely the type of storm where everyone here could get in on the fun. Might not be the most exciting storm because you're most likely not going to have a rapidly deepening coastal storm, but a long duration of moderate to locally heavy snow is on the table, similar to last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, allgame830 said: this is the kind of the stuff that needs to stop on this subforum.... in fact I have been recently jumping into the NE forum (which had VERY little of bickering in their discussion for this past storm BTW) a lot more because of all the bickering and whining that a lot do on here. this forum needs to get better and its not by the moderators deleting, moving posts or even 5 posting someone or giving them a time out. it is up to us to stop this crap and make the board enjoyable and knowledgeable. it gets exhausting.... ACT LIKE ADULTS!! ok that's my rant Rjay/BxEngine... please leave this here everyone needs to read Yes correct SNE thread has a lot of Mets that are consistently posting we need more of that here. People just have to realize that every storm can't jackpot their backyard. It's not worth getting angry over. This region of the country is one of the most difficult to forecast for. There can be big variations in snowfall and P-types over a relatively short distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: This is definitely the type of storm where everyone here could get in on the fun. Might not be the most exciting storm because you're most likely not going to have a rapidly deepening coastal storm, but a long duration of moderate to locally heavy snow is on the table, similar to last March. Hey any additional snow is just an added bonus at this point. I do not remember what did last March bring to the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: People just have to realize that every storm can't jackpot their backyard. It's not worth getting angry over. This region of the country is one of the most difficult to forecast for. There can be big variations in snowfall and P-types over a relatively short distance. Yes well put and I am going to leave it at that because I do not want to get off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Hey any additional snow is just an added bonus at this point. I do not remember what did last March bring to the area? 2 feet north of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: Yes well put and I am going to leave it at that because I do not want to get off topic. No problem. Sometimes the mood in the threads makes you just want to wait until nowcast time to avoid the model arguments. More of a pure enjoyment of the weather than some imperfect forecast process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: 2 feet north of the city what was the date.... I would like to view a snowmap just for ****s and giggles.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Hey any additional snow is just an added bonus at this point. I do not remember what did last March bring to the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: No problem. Sometimes the mood in the threads makes you just want to wait until nowcast time to avoid the model arguments. More of a pure enjoyment of the weather than some imperfect forecast process. Yea just living and dying from run to run is horrible... just have to sit back and just go with it. There were multiple times I had to step away this past storm and go smoke a boag LOL because of all the bickering HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Let's hope for a repeat because that would include the NYC metro which has "missed" out on all 3 so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: No problem. Sometimes the mood in the threads makes you just want to wait until nowcast time to avoid the model arguments. More of a pure enjoyment of the weather than some imperfect forecast process. Terrific post. I know many enjoy the model tracking but I'm more of a results guy. For example, NFL Draft Day can be mildly interesting but not as interesting to me as results on the field when the season starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, allgame830 said: what was the date.... I would like to view a snowmap just for ****s and giggles.... March 14th, 1 year ago today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 37 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Let's hope for a repeat because that would include the NYC metro which has "missed" out on all 3 so far.... Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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