Paragon Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Wait April Fools Day 1997 was 0.0? I remember that as a 1-2" storm even though it was a bust since the prediction was for like 8-12" Much more snow fell both to our south and to our north. I just dont feel like our urban environment can support big late season snowfalls anymore. Major snow season in NYC and Western Long Island ends on March 1st. No widespread 20" snowstorms after Feb 28....... No widespread 10" snowstorms after March 15........ No widespread 6" snowstorms after March 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Would like NYC to go over 30 for the season, they only need 3 more inches to do it, which would make it 5 straight years over 30 inches for only the second time in history. Considering how mild some of the recent winters have been that would be quite extraordinary, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Morris said: With a bunch of days hitting freezing this week, and a bunch more in the forecast, how are we currently compared to the average freezing days? @bluewave @donsutherland1 @uncle W Still below average so far. I'll have the numbers later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Models have more snow next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 49 minutes ago, Paragon said: Don looks like your monthly call for 2-6" in March might work out. 1967 is an interesting case though, didn't we have a big snowstorm later in the month after the near miss that you mentioned? Yes. On March 22, 1967 NYC saw 9.0" snow and 15.0" fell at Islip. Interestingly enough, the 0z ECMWF suggested the possibility of another snowfall in the 3/20-21 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: It may be that the warming average temperatures are starting to cut down the late season maximum snowstorm potential in NYC. We saw recently how model forecasts had some very high snowfall totals, but the warmth cut down on the amounts. Over time, the late season biggest snowstorms in NYC are slowly declining in size. But the temperatures haven't warmed enough during the rest of the winter to slow the increasing max snowstorm amounts. It makes sense that this may be happening near the late season. Temps are warmer than the earlier parts of the season and a few degrees can have a greater impact on snowfall amounts in the biggest storms. If this is showing the totals from Dec 1 through Feb 28th it's not even close. Is this the highest daily totals as in calendar day rather than event each year in that period? If so it may be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If this is showing the totals from Dec 1 through Feb 28th it's not even close. Is this the highest daily totals as in calendar day rather than event each year in that period? If so it may be accurate. Yes, those are daily totals e.g., the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard brought 14.5" snow to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 hours ago, uncle W said: Still below average so far. I'll have the numbers later. I never did do the averages for this...to much work... year.........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar...Apr.tot days/con. max/consecutive 2017-18......0.......4.....16.....22.....12.....05.......0.....59...17.....21...14 as of 3/12/18 2016-17......0.......0.....11.....12.....12.....14.......0.....49.....8.....11.....3 2015-16......0.......1.......0.....21.....14.......7.......3.....46.....9.....10.....4 2014-15......0.......7.......9.....25.....28.....16.......1.....86...38.....26.....5 2013-14......0.......9.....19.....24.....21.....19.......1.....93...16.....33.....7 2012-13......0.......3.......8.....18.....17.....14.......0.....60...11.....15.....6 2011-12......0.......0.....10.....13.....10.......4.......0.....37.....5.......6.....2 2010-11......0.......0.....25.....28.....19.....11.......0.....83...18.....22.....4 2009-10......0.......0.....17.....22.....22.......2.......0.....63...23.....17.....3 2008-09......0.......6.....19.....30.....20.....11.......0.....86...26.....22.....3 2007-08......0.......3.....14.....20.....18.......7.......0.....62...14.......6.....2 2006-07......0.......0.......6.....18.....24.....11.......4.....63...36.....18.....6 2005-06......0.......5.....20.....10.....18.....14.......0.....67...14.......9.....2 2004-05......0.......5.....15.....17.....20.....14.......0.....71...29.....18.....9 2003-04......0.......1.....17.....26.....21.....10.......3.....78...20.....26.....9 2002-03......0.......3.....18.....28.....21.....13.......3.....86...22.....31...12 2001-02......0.......0.......9.....11.....15.......9.......3.....47...12.......3.....2 2000-01......0.......6.....29.....23.....18.....13.......0.....89...22.....20...13 1999-00......0.......1.....10.....22.....18.......4.......1.....56...28.....18.....7 1998-99......0.......0.......8.....20.....13.....11.......0.....52...18.....13.....3 1997-98......0.......8.....10.....13.......9.......9.......0.....49.....4.......3.....2 1996-97......0.......8.......7.....25.....14.....12.......3.....69...14.....11.....3 1995-96......0.......8.....24.....24.....18.....15.......0.....89...15.....30.....9 1994-95......0.......3.....10.....19.....20.......5.......3.....60...14.....11.....5 1993-94......0.......3.....15.....29.....24.....13.......0.....84...26.....31.....5 1992-93......0.......5.....13.....21.....27.....14.......0.....80...22.......7.....3 1991-92......0.......2.....15.....19.....15.....16.......1.....68...14.......9.....2 1990-91......0.......2.....11.....20.....14.......6.......1.....54.....8.......7.....1 1989-90......0.......9.....31.....10.....15.......9.......0.....74...33.....19.....9 1988-89......1.......1.....19.....16.....21.....13.......0.....71...11.....19.....3 1987-88......0.......5.......9.....24.....23.....11.......0.....72...16.....19.....7 1986-87......0.......6.....10.....23.....23.....11.......1.....74...19.....11.....5 1985-86......0.......0.....23.....21.....21.......9.......0.....74...12.....19.....4 1984-85......0.......5.......6.....28.....18.....10.......2.....69...35.....18.....5 1983-84......0.......1.....17.....26.....10.....13.......0.....67...19.....29.....8 1982-83......0.......4.....10.....18.....14.......7.......0.....53...12.....13.....4 1981-82......0.......2.....15.....26.....20.......9.......5.....77...24.....20.....6 1980-81......0.......2.....24.....27.....14.....12.......0.....79...24.....30...11 1979-80......0.......1.....12.....22.....24.....10.......1.....70...31.....19.....5 1978-79......0.......3.....15.....20.....21.......8.......1.....68...22.....26...11 1977-78......0.......4.....15.....27.....27.....13.......1.....87...22.....42...12 1976-77......2.....11.....25.....31.....17.......7.......3.....96...51.....45.....9 1975-76......1.......0.....21.....30.....14.......8.......2.....76...26.....20.....3 1974-75......3.......7.....12.....16.....16.....15.......6.....75...17.......8.....2 1973-74......0.......2.....16.....20.....24.....12.......2.....76...15.....23.....3 1972-73......1.......7.......9.....17.....21.......3.......0.....57.....9.....13.....4 1971-72......0.......5.....12.....18.....23.....16.......4.....78...11.....17.....5 1970-71......0.......4.....21.....29.....12.....12.......0.....78...16.....25.....5 1969-70......2.......5.....24.....30.....21.....14.......1.....97...45.....27.....6 1968-69......0.......1.....22.....22.....21.....15.......1.....82...27.....18.....3 1967-68......0.......9.....14.....24.....26.....13.......1.....87...27.....22.....9 1966-67......0.......2.....22.....19.....25.....16.......3.....86...15.....25.....6 1965-66......1.......3.....10.....22.....21.....10.......0.....67...17.....14.....2 1964-65......0.......4.....18.....28.....19.......9.......1.....79...27.....22.....5 1963-64......0.......0.....22.....16.....25.......9.......3.....75...22.....18.....7 1962-63......0.......4.....22.....23.....25.......8.......0.....82...21.....29.....7 1961-62......0.......5.....20.....24.....22.......7.......0.....78...16.....16.....4 1960-61......0.......3.....26.....27.....14.......8.......0.....78...26.....27...16 1959-60......0.......6.....12.....24.....20.....26.......0.....88...20.....15.....3 1958-59......0.......3.....28.....24.....21.....17.......0.....93...23.....26...10 1957-58......0.......3.......9.....21.....22.......3.......1.....59...17.....20...12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 it looks like NYC will have a March max lower than the Feb max...other years like that are... 1877.....58 57 1887.....63 49 1891.....59 58 1893.....54 50 1900.....57 55 1906.....58 55 1930.....75 63 1933.....60 59 1951.....64 62 1970.....57 56 1984.....63 58 2001.....61 57 2008.....68 63 2018.....78...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 hours ago, Paragon said: Wait April Fools Day 1997 was 0.0? I remember that as a 1-2" storm even though it was a bust since the prediction was for like 8-12" Much more snow fell both to our south and to our north. I just dont feel like our urban environment can support big late season snowfalls anymore. Major snow season in NYC and Western Long Island ends on March 1st. No widespread 20" snowstorms after Feb 28....... No widespread 10" snowstorms after March 15........ No widespread 6" snowstorms after March 20th. It was a trace in NYC. Immediately outside the City, there were some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Based on today's 12z guidance, I have little change in my thinking. The following idea still appears reasonable: Boston: 12”-18” Bridgeport: 3”-6” Islip: 4”-8” New Haven: 4”-8” New York City: 2”-4” Newark: 2”-4” Providence: 12”-18” Poughkeepsie: 2”-4” Westhampton: 6”-12” White Plains: 2”-4” Parts of Maine could see amounts that approach 2 feet, even as 12"-18" appears reasonable for such cities as Portland and Bangor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, uncle W said: it looks like NYC will have a March max lower than the Feb max...other years like that are... 1877.....58 57 1887.....63 49 1891.....59 58 1893.....54 50 1900.....57 55 1906.....58 55 1930.....75 63 1933.....60 59 1951.....64 62 1970.....57 56 1984.....63 58 2001.....61 57 2008.....68 63 2018.....78...... This looks like one of the biggest February margins over March on record. So far the high at NYC this month was 60 degrees. That is a -18 from February. The records from the stats you posted are -14 in 1887 and -12 in 1930. Without much spring warmth in the current forecasts, NYC looks to finish somewhere in the top 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Weeklies show a delayed spring through end of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 A storm that is likely to join the annals as among the Northeast's fabled March snowstorms is now deepening. By the time the snow stops falling, Boston could have its 3rd or 4th biggest snowstorm after February. Boston's 5 biggest snowstorms on or after March 1 are: 1. 25.4", March 31-April 1, 1997 (33.0" at Worcester) 2. 19.7", March 3-4, 1960 (14.5" at New York City and 22.1" at Worcester) 3. 14.0", March 3-4, 1891 4. 13.3", March 19-20, 1956 and April 6-7, 1982 So far, the storm's evolution and track remains reasonably consistent with a blend of the guidance. The strongest frontogenic forcing at 600 mb to 800 mb is forecast to develop over Suffolk County and eastern New England. As a result, my thinking about the snowstorm remains as follows: Bangor: 12"-18" Boston: 12”-18” Bridgeport: 3”-6” Concord: 7"-14" Farmingdale: 3"-6" Islip: 4”-8” New Haven: 4”-8” New London: 6"-12" New York City (JFK, LGA, and NYC): 2”-4” Newark: 2”-4” Portland: 12"-18" Providence: 12”-18” Poughkeepsie: 2”-4” Westhampton: 6”-12” White Plains: 2”-4” Worcester: 12"-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. On March 22, 1967 NYC saw 9.0" snow and 15.0" fell at Islip. Interestingly enough, the 0z ECMWF suggested the possibility of another snowfall in the 3/20-21 timeframe. If we can get a big one around then I think everyone will be happy and we can move onto spring. Another winter which served as an analog for this one had a big snowstorm around that time period, 1955-56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A storm that is likely to join the annals as among the Northeast's fabled March snowstorms is now deepening. By the time the snow stops falling, Boston could have its 3rd or 4th biggest snowstorm after February. Boston's 5 biggest snowstorms on or after March 1 are: 1. 25.4", March 31-April 1, 1997 (33.0" at Worcester) 2. 19.7", March 3-4, 1960 (14.5" at New York City and 22.1" at Worcester) 3. 14.0", March 3-4, 1891 4. 13.3", March 19-20, 1956 and April 6-7, 1982 So far, the storm's evolution and track remains reasonably consistent with a blend of the guidance. The strongest frontogenic forcing at 600 mb to 800 mb is forecast to develop over Suffolk County and eastern New England. As a result, my thinking about the snowstorm remains as follows: Bangor: 12"-18" Boston: 12”-18” Bridgeport: 3”-6” Concord: 7"-14" Farmingdale: 3"-6" Islip: 4”-8” New Haven: 4”-8” New London: 6"-12" New York City (JFK, LGA, and NYC): 2”-4” Newark: 2”-4” Portland: 12"-18" Providence: 12”-18” Poughkeepsie: 2”-4” Westhampton: 6”-12” White Plains: 2”-4” Worcester: 12"-18" I thought that April 1997 was Boston's revenge on the March 1888 blizzard, but since this is occurring on almost the same date as the 1888 storm, this could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes, those are daily totals e.g., the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard brought 14.5" snow to NYC. Some more totals from the March 1960 Blizzard: LGA: 15.3" Garden City: 16.5" Malverne: 16.0" Mineola: 17.0" Westhampton (FOK): 24.0" Bridgehampton: 21/0" KFOK reported a snow depth of 23" on the morning of March 5. There were several more light snowfalls that month and into April, the last being an inch or two along the north shore on April 7. Wish I could remember that month, but I wasn't born yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Weeklies show a delayed spring through end of April If it doesn't snow it had better be hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: Some more totals from the March 1960 Blizzard: LGA: 15.3" Garden City: 16.5" Malverne: 16.0" Mineola: 17.0" Westhampton (FOK): 24.0" Bridgehampton: 21/0" KFOK reported a snow depth of 23" on the morning of March 5. There were several more light snowfalls that month and into April, the last being an inch or two along the north shore on April 7. Wish I could remember that month, but I wasn't born yet. Hey Ed, since it was mentioned that the Euro has a storm for us around the equinox, do you have any totals on hand for the March 1956 and March 1967 late season snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It was a trace in NYC. Immediately outside the City, there were some accumulations. April 1, 1997 in Smithtown we had 3" of snow following a bunch of rain. It was tantalizingly close and 3" isn't bad for 4/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: April 1, 1997 in Smithtown we had 3" of snow following a bunch of rain. It was tantalizingly close and 3" isn't bad for 4/1. It's all relative though because original forecasts were for like 8-12 or 10-15. Jersey coast got up to 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, Paragon said: Hey Ed, since it was mentioned that the Euro has a storm for us around the equinox, do you have any totals on hand for the March 1956 and March 1967 late season snowstorms? Both of those March's featured a roughly 4-8" snowfall only a day or two before the larger snowfall. The larger snowfalls from coop records: March 18 -19, 1956 LGA 9.3" NYC 11.6" Battery (Weather Bureau) - 13.5" Mineola 14.0" Garden City 15.0" Babylon 25.6" (suspect) Patchogue 12.5" Bridgehampton 14.4" KFOK 6.0" (suspect) Setauket - 10.0" March 21 -22, 1967 LGA 9.0" NYC 9.8" ISP 17.0" Bridgehampton 16.0" FOK 8.3" Garden City 9.5" Malverne 12.0" Patchogue 16.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Both of those March's featured a roughly 4-8" snowfall only a day or two before the larger snowfall. The larger snowfalls from coop records: March 18 -19, 1956 LGA 9.3" NYC 11.6" Battery (Weather Bureau) - 13.5" Mineola 14.0" Garden City 15.0" Babylon 25.6" (suspect) Patchogue 12.5" Bridgehampton 14.4" KFOK 6.0" (suspect) Setauket - 10.0" March 21 -22, 1967 LGA 9.0" NYC 9.8" ISP 17.0" Bridgehampton 16.0" FOK 8.3" Garden City 9.5" Malverne 12.0" Patchogue 16.1" Thanks, Ed, I was wondering about those Babylon numbers because I had heard they had measured 29-30 inches in another 50s storm (Feb 1958 I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Euro shows a huge snowstorm for the area next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 48 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro shows a huge snowstorm for the area next week The GFS is showing it too? Temps should be plenty cold enough, looks like temps are going in the tank in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 A powerful winter storm is raging across parts of New England and eastern Long Island. Near blizzard conditions are occurring in places. By the time the snow ends, parts of New England will likely see 12”-18” snow with localized amounts in excess of 20” In an around New York City, though, the combination of light precipitation and the City’s “heat island” effect will lead to a marginal situation. There, only a coating to perhaps an inch of snow is likely. In the wake of the storm, cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. There remains a possibility that another winter storm could affect the region next week. As a result, there is now a growing probability that New York City could see a colder than normal anomaly in March. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/12 39.1° (0.4° below normal) 3/15 38.6°-39.4° (3/12 estimate: 38.4°-39.4°) 3/20 38.1°-40.2° (3/12 estimate: 38.4°-39.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 42% (3/12 estimate: 45%) PS: Other than NYC, I don't have any changes in thinking with respect to last night's posted amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: A powerful winter storm is raging across parts of New England and eastern Long Island. Near blizzard conditions are occurring in places. By the time the snow ends, parts of New England will likely see 12”-18” snow with localized amounts in excess of 20” In an around New York City, though, the combination of light precipitation and the City’s “heat island” effect will lead to a marginal situation. There, only a coating to perhaps an inch of snow is likely. In the wake of the storm, cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. There remains a possibility that another winter storm could affect the region next week. As a result, there is now a growing probability that New York City could see a colder than normal anomaly in March. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/12 39.1° (0.4° below normal) 3/15 38.6°-39.4° (3/12 estimate: 38.4°-39.4°) 3/20 38.1°-40.2° (3/12 estimate: 38.4°-39.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 42% (3/12 estimate: 45%) Are you getting more excited about the storm next week maybe being for NYC what the current storm is going to be for Boston, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 ...32.1* with heavy snow falling..temp was 40* @ 9pm last nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: April 1, 1997 in Smithtown we had 3" of snow following a bunch of rain. It was tantalizingly close and 3" isn't bad for 4/1. It was a really close call for a large part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, Paragon said: Are you getting more excited about the storm next week maybe being for NYC what the current storm is going to be for Boston, Don? It's a little early, but there's potential. We may have colder air with which to work, but the possible storm is still about a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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