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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It's pretty funny that the MJO waited until the spring to avoid the warm phases for the first time since last fall. I guess you need to have a sense of humor about this stuff.;)

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif.5058fdbcf89ba38b54f6f99791127f7e.gif

 

 

 

After the horrendous 1989-90 winter we managed to get a 1-2" snow event in early April 1990

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

After the horrendous 1989-90 winter we managed to get a 1-2" snow event in early April 1990

The 89-90 winter was in the top 5 of my most surprising weather events between 1970 and 1990. After the Thanksgiving snowstorm and December record cold, I thought we were in for a repeat of the 76-77 winter. 

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Very rare to get two years in a row with such a steep temperature departure decline from February into March. 

NYC....Feb....Mar

2018...+6.7....+0.7 so far

2017....+6.3....-3.3

2002...+6.0.....+1.7

1997...+6.4.....-0.5

1984...+7.2.....-4.7

1981...+5.9....+1.2

1954...+7.6....+0.7

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Yesterday was a relatively quiet day, though a few spots saw snow flurries and snow showers that provided a quick dusting.

A nice weekend lies ahead. A storm that could track to our south and east early next week still bears watching.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/9 39.8° (0.7° above normal)
3/10 39.3°-39.9° (3/9 estimate: 39.3°-39.9°)
3/15 38.3°-40.3° (3/9 estimate: 38.2°-40.6°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 51% (3/9 estimate: 51%)

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very rare to get two years in a row with such a steep temperature departure decline from February into March. 

NYC....Feb....Mar

2018...+6.7....+0.7 so far

2017....+6.3....-3.3

2002...+6.0.....+1.7

1997...+6.4.....-0.5

1984...+7.2.....-4.7

1981...+5.9....+1.2

1954...+7.6....+0.7

It's hard to believe that this March has been above normal, it feels like the coldest it's been since early January!

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

It's hard to believe that this March has been above normal, it feels like the coldest it's been since early January!

Yeah, all the clouds, precip, and wind made it feel colder than the close to average so far.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still have snow on roofs and a deep snowpack here which is very rare for a March snowfall. Looks and feels more like February here.

Deep winter in the interior right now. I was over at my folks place in highland mills and they still have well over a foot otg. Some of the high spots in the Hudson highlands prob have 20"+ otg

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9 minutes ago, snywx said:

Deep winter in the interior right now. I was over at my folks place in highland mills and they still have well over a foot otg. Some of the high spots in the Hudson highlands prob have 20"+ otg

Easily still a 12”+ snowpack here with much more than that in places.

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31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still have snow on roofs and a deep snowpack here which is very rare for a March snowfall. Looks and feels more like February here.

I don't even know the last time that our N and W sections had 2 Marches in a row with over 20 inches of snow.

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It did not snow in Smithtown today.  This was the first day without any snowfall since March 1.  8 consecutive days with snowfall in March is not common.

Our seasonal snowfall total stands at 39.4"

In other news, I skied up and down the west side of Hunter Mountain to the fire tower yesterday (this is not close to the ski area).  The fire tower at 4050 feet and the surrounding spruce/fir forest were encased in rime encrusted snow.  From the trail head to the summit depths were between 2 and 3 feet.  It was still unconsolidated powder (except for in the snowshoe track) so I don't think the sun has been out much up there this month.  Tough going with my cross country equipment (maaaaayyybe some skills issues too?  nah ;) ) Dang shame I have skinny BC skis.  I also could have used skins.  But a great workout and phenomenally beautiful.

I fell a bit and managed to poke various equipment through to the ground (there was very little snow before this months storms).  Surprisingly, I pulled up little bits of mud even at near 4k feet.  Shows what a warm winter it has been.

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Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or 1deg. BN.  Month to date is Normal at +0.10.

CMC/GFS are 2"--4" on Tues. snowfall now.  Could add EURO here as similar.  This one is for New England, if anywhere.

The fickle CFSv2 has blown cold again, and wants to keep it that way well into April.  

Welcome to DST.

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Yesterday featured partly sunny skies and below normal temperatures across the region. The weekend should end with near normal readings.

However, another storm appears likely to impact parts of the region Monday and Tuesday. A developing storm will likely pass offshore but sufficiently close to bring accumulating snow to portions of the region.

Suffolk County on Long Island and eastern Connecticut appear to have the best chance at receiving a significant accumulation (6” or more). New York City, Newark and nearby suburbs could see moderate snowfall (4” or more) and possibly a significant snowfall. A light to moderate snowfall appears possible in the more distant northern and western suburbs. Parts of New England including Providence and Boston have the potential to see a foot or more of snow.

The last time New York City received 4” or more snow after March 10 was March 14, 2017 when 7.6” fell. The last 8” or greater snowfall after March 10 was the March 13-14, 1993 storm, which brought 10.6” snow to New York City.

The following weekend could feature warmer than normal readings. However, such warmth likely won’t be sustained.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/10 39.4° (3/10 estimate: 39.3°-39.9°; 0.1° above normal)
3/15 38.3°-39.9° (3/10 estimate: 38.2°-40.6°)
3/20 39.1°-41.8°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 48% (3/10 estimate: 51%)

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13 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Easily still a 12”+ snowpack here with much more than that in places.

Over 20 inches on the ground near Jim Thorpe, PA, around 2200 ft elevation.  The snowfall maps that said there was only 7-9 inches there were very off.  I couldn't get the car inside yesterday and had to jump over a fence after climbing a pile of snow that a snowplow so nicely left me.

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Taking into consideration the guidance, but discounting the SREFS east of Suffolk and New Haven Counties, my thinking for the upcoming storm is as follows:

Boston: 12”-18”
Bridgeport: 3”-6”
Islip: 4”-8”
New Haven: 4”-8”
New York City: 2”-4”
Newark: 2”-4”
Providence: 12”-18”
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”
Westhampton: 6”-12”
White Plains: 2”-4”

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Taking into consideration the guidance, but discounting the SREFS east of Suffolk and New Haven Counties, my thinking for the upcoming storm is as follows:

Boston: 12”-18”
Bridgeport: 3”-6”
Islip: 4”-8”
New Haven: 4”-8”
New York City: 2”-4”
Newark: 2”-4”
Providence: 12”-18”
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”
Westhampton: 6”-12”
White Plains: 2”-4”

Don what do you expect for Nassau County?  Like for Western Nassau (near JFK) and Eastern Nassau (Farmingdale)?

 

 

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Another late-season snowfall will impact parts of the region late today into tomorrow. This time, the focus of the snowfall will be eastern sections of the region.

Parts of eastern New England will likely pick up 12”-18” snow. March storms in which Boston receives 10” or more snow and NYC receives less than 4” snow are uncommon. Since 1950, only the March 15-16, 1967 (10.0” in Boston and 2.6” in New York City) and the March 31-April 1, 1997 (25.4” in Boston and 0.0” in New York City) snowstorms met those criteria. Such a case appears possible this time around. Further, unlike those aforementioned storms, a substantial snowfall also appears likely in such cities as Portland and Bangor. In short, even as NYC Metro Area largely misses out, the storm could be one for the meteorological annals.

My thinking is that accumulations will be as follows:

Boston: 12”-18”
Bridgeport: 3”-6”
Islip: 4”-8”
New Haven: 4”-8”
New York City: 2”-4”
Newark: 2”-4”
Providence: 12”-18”
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”
Westhampton: 6”-12”
White Plains: 2”-4”

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/11 39.3° (0.1° below normal)
3/15 38.4°-39.4° (3/11 estimate: 38.3°-40.3°)
3/20 38.4°-39.6° (3/11 estimate: 39.8°-42.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 45% (3/11 estimate: 48%)

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Another late-season snowfall will impact parts of the region late today into tomorrow. This time, the focus of the snowfall will be eastern sections of the region.

Parts of eastern New England will likely pick up 12”-18” snow. March storms in which Boston receives 10” or more snow and NYC receives less than 4” snow are uncommon. Since 1950, only the March 15-16, 1967 (10.0” in Boston and 2.6” in New York City) and the March 31-April 1, 1997 (25.4” in Boston and 0.0” in New York City) snowstorms met those criteria. Such a case appears possible this time around. Further, unlike those aforementioned storms, a substantial snowfall also appears likely in such cities as Portland and Bangor. In short, even as NYC Metro Area largely misses out, the storm could be one for the meteorological annals.

My thinking is that accumulations will be as follows:

Boston: 12”-18”
Bridgeport: 3”-6”
Islip: 4”-8”
New Haven: 4”-8”
New York City: 2”-4”
Newark: 2”-4”
Providence: 12”-18”
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”
Westhampton: 6”-12”
White Plains: 2”-4”

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/11 39.3° (0.1° below normal)
3/15 38.4°-39.4° (3/11 estimate: 38.3°-40.3°)
3/20 38.4°-39.6° (3/11 estimate: 39.8°-42.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 45% (3/11 estimate: 48%)

Don looks like your monthly call for 2-6" in March might work out.  1967 is an interesting case though, didn't we have a big snowstorm later in the month after the near miss that you mentioned?

 

 

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