donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 A strong nor’easter will likely bring heavy snow across parts of the region and mixed precipitation to parts of coastal New Jersey, Long Island and, for a time, New York City and adjacent suburbs. New York City and adjacent suburbs will likely pick up 6"-12" snow. Its northern and western suburbs will likely receive 8"-16" snow with some locally higher amounts. Nassau County should pick up 4”-8”, while Suffolk County will probably see 3”-6” snow. During the height of the storm late this afternoon and early this evening, snow could be falling at a rate of 1”-2” per hour. Some locations could even have a rumble or two of thunder. Winds could gust near 50 mph along coastal areas. The combination of the heavy wet snow and strong winds could bring down more trees and knock out power yet again in areas that were hard hit from the previous nor-easter. Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday. However, there is disagreement among the guidance. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/6 41.7° (3.0° above normal) 3/10 39.2°-41.0° (3/6 estimate: 39.2°-41.6°) 3/15 38.2°-41.4° (3/6 estimate: 38.0°-41.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 50% (3/6 estimate: 50%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 2degs. BN. CMC has 32" of Snow over next 8 days or so. Lol. One should note a distinction between snow totals and what anyone has left on the ground when one of these late season borderline R/S systems is gone. Wel,l get it done by mid-month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Yesterday’s nor’easter brought its heaviest snow away from the NYC urban area coupled with a slice of moderate-to-significant snow across parts of Long Island where 6”-8” fell across a portion of Suffolk County. Winds gusted in many areas between 40 mph and 50 mph, about 15 mph to 25 mph less than during the last nor’easter. Snowfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 5.5” (new daily record); Islip: 6.5” (new daily record); New York City: 3.2”; Newark: 4.6” (new daily record) The highest area-wide snowfall amounts included: Franklin Lakes (2 SSW), NJ: 24.0”; Green Pond, NJ: 24.0”; Highland Mills, NY: 24.0”; Monroe, NY: 26.0”; Montville, NJ: 26.8”; Morris Plains, NJ: 26.0”; New Fairfield, CT: 26.8”; and, Sloatsburg, NY: 26.0” Outside the NYC area, Searsburg, VT picked up 32.5” snow. Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday. However, there is disagreement among the guidance. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/7 40.9° (2.0° above normal) 3/10 39.2°-40.4° (3/7 estimate: 39.2°-41.0°) 3/15 37.8°-40.6° (3/7 estimate: 38.2°-41.4°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 49% (3/7 estimate: 50%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 We officially set the record for the most precipitation from February 1st through March 7th around the area. So far Islip is the leader with 11.00. Every station is at #1. This is even more unusual since February is typically the driest month of the year here. 2/1-3/7 record precip totals around the area: NYC.....9.48 LGA.....9.02 EWR...8.99 JFK.....9.68 BDR...9.12 ISP....11.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: We officially set the record for the most precipitation from February 1st through March 7th around the area. So far Islip is the leader with 11.00. Every station is at #1. This is even more unusual since February is typically the driest month of the year here. 2/1-3/7 record precip totals around the area: NYC.....9.48 LGA.....9.02 EWR...8.99 JFK.....9.68 BDR...9.12 ISP....11.00 Yup 10.65" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, doncat said: Yup 10.65" here. My local pond is at the highest levels in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 High water volume snow pack here reminds me of March 2010 in terms of flood potential, saturated ground and reservoir capacity. Area is primed for Spring flooding if we don't get a nice dry stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 While there is much talk about poor model performance in terms of (QPF - Snowfall), keep in mind that model skill for QPF is poor in general which is why many mets ignore it and secondly the high resolution products including the Euro consistently showed that the highest totals would be from interior Northern NJ up through Western portions of the Hudson Valley, which was correct. I stress time and time again, that you can't take these models verbatim. You need to look at the upper air features and decide for yourself on how that translates to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: High water volume snow pack here reminds me of March 2010 in terms of flood potential, saturated ground and reservoir capacity. Area is primed for Spring flooding if we don't get a nice dry stretch. For some reason, we haven't been able to sustain really wet patterns here since the end of 2011. So it will be interesting to see if February began a new pattern or we just revert back to dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 There are a lot of snow showers breaking out across the area.... maybe a dusting to an inch in some places since its getting closer to sunset now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Euro weeklies are trough after trough. Until mid April on today's version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 40 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Euro weeklies are trough after trough. Until mid April on today's version Euro weeklies cancel spring until late April with more snow coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro weeklies cancel spring until late April with more snow coming. This may turn out to be our biggest February high temperature beat over March on record following a 70 degree February. 80 degrees in February and nothing even close to that showing up for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 51 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro weeklies cancel spring until late April with more snow coming. Well I really hope that does not verify for April because it could result in a cool and gloomy April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: This may turn out to be our biggest February high temperature beat over March on record. 80 degrees in February and nothing even close to that showing up for March. That would be highly anamalous, but the big one would be can we do it in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The latest March snowstorm departed from New England late yesterday. A period of quiet weather now lies ahead through the coming weekend. Over the next two weeks, the general blocking that had developed toward the beginning of the month and had contributed to the two nor’easters that lashed parts of the East Coast will likely persist. Although the NAO will move toward slightly negative values the AO could head lower near or after mid-month if a cluster of ensemble members is correct. Considering that strong blocks typically persist, that cluster of ensemble members appears more likely to be correct than another cluster that favors a rise to positive values. All of this means that at least for the next 10-15 days, no sustained genuine springlike weather appears likely. Finally, even as most of the guidance has shifted toward a solution where a storm system will pass a little too far to the south and east to bring a measurable snowfall to much of the region early next week, that situation still bears watching. The pattern has favored storms taking a track that is closer to shore. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/8 40.3° (1.2° above normal) 3/10 39.3°-39.9° (3/8 estimate: 39.2°-40.4°) 3/15 38.2°-40.6° (3/8 estimate: 38.2°-40.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 51% (3/8 estimate: 49%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Next 8 days averaging about 39-40degs., or 2degs. BN Mean is going up a degree every 3-4 days now. Sun's elevation now peaks at above 45 degrees, so pray for nighttme events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Snowing in Chester. Radar shows a small blip in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That would be highly anamalous, but the big one would be can we do it in April. The record for the coolest March high at Newark following a 70 degree or greater February was in 1997 with a -4 below February. Year.....Feb....Mar....difference 2018....80......?..........? 1949....76......78........+2 2017....74......73........-1 1997....74......70........-4 1954....74......74.........E 1985...73.......84.........+11 2011...71......80..........+9 1999...70......75.........+5 1939...70......74.........+4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Had some flurries a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 First 6 years in a row for Long Island with over 30 inches of snow since 1950. It would have been 10 years in a row without 11-12. Major improvement over 78-79 to 92-93 with only 3 seasons over 30 inches. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Upton 5.5 700 AM 3/08 NWS Office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18 hours ago, bluewave said: For some reason, we haven't been able to sustain really wet patterns here since the end of 2011. So it will be interesting to see if February began a new pattern or we just revert back to dry again. Last spring was wet for weeks up here. Impressive mud for quite some time and it filled the reservoirs so the city had water to drink through the dry period that followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 19 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Last spring was wet for weeks up here. Impressive mud for quite some time and it filled the reservoirs so the city had water to drink through the dry period that followed. Upstate NY has been much wetter than our area has been over the last 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 News report from Morris County; this was the kind of snow rates we had. From Route 46 in Parsippany.https://www.dailyrecord.com/story/news/local/morris-county/2018/03/08/day-after-49-000-without-power-morris-county/405328002/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The record for the coolest March high at Newark following a 70 degree or greater February was in 1997 with a -4 below February. Year.....Feb....Mar....difference 2018....80......?..........? 1949....76......78........+2 2017....74......73........-1 1997....74......70........-4 1954....74......74.........E 1985...73.......84.........+11 2011...71......80..........+9 1999...70......75.........+5 1939...70......74.........+4 There could be a decent warm push March 17/18 as some ridging builds in, but highly doubt we get anywhere near 80F. I think 70 is doable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest March snowstorm departed from New England late yesterday. A period of quiet weather now lies ahead through the coming weekend. Over the next two weeks, the general blocking that had developed toward the beginning of the month and had contributed to the two nor’easters that lashed parts of the East Coast will likely persist. Although the NAO will move toward slightly negative values the AO could head lower near or after mid-month if a cluster of ensemble members is correct. Considering that strong blocks typically persist, that cluster of ensemble members appears more likely to be correct than another cluster that favors a rise to positive values. All of this means that at least for the next 10-15 days, no sustained genuine springlike weather appears likely. Finally, even as most of the guidance has shifted toward a solution where a storm system will pass a little too far to the south and east to bring a measurable snowfall to much of the region early next week, that situation still bears watching. The pattern has favored storms taking a track that is closer to shore. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/8 40.3° (1.2° above normal) 3/10 39.3°-39.9° (3/8 estimate: 39.2°-40.4°) 3/15 38.2°-40.6° (3/8 estimate: 38.2°-40.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 51% (3/8 estimate: 49%) Sounds like we'll have a few more chances after that and the previously progged warm up after mid month will not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 15 hours ago, allgame830 said: Well I really hope that does not verify for April because it could result in a cool and gloomy April. You can still get some nice snows through about the first 10 days of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, Paragon said: Sounds like we'll have a few more chances after that and the previously progged warm up after mid month will not occur. I agree. I don't think next Monday's event will produce the area's last measurable snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. I don't think next Monday's event will produce the area's last measurable snow this season. Wow thats a tremendous statement Don. Based on what you're seeing do you think we could even see a measurable snowfall in early April or do you think it'll be more like the typical March 20-22 period when it would occur? I know that's looking rather far ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Paragon said: Wow thats a tremendous statement Don. Based on what you're seeing do you think we could even see a measurable snowfall in early April or do you think it'll be more like the typical March 20-22 period when it would occur? I know that's looking rather far ahead. I would watch into the first week of April right now. Afterward, there's a chance the pattern could break decisively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.