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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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A strong nor’easter will likely bring heavy snow across parts of the region and mixed precipitation to parts of coastal New Jersey, Long Island and, for a time, New York City and adjacent suburbs. New York City and adjacent suburbs will likely pick up 6"-12" snow. Its northern and western suburbs will likely receive 8"-16" snow with some locally higher amounts. Nassau County should pick up 4”-8”, while Suffolk County will probably see 3”-6” snow.

During the height of the storm late this afternoon and early this evening, snow could be falling at a rate of 1”-2” per hour. Some locations could even have a rumble or two of thunder.

Winds could gust near 50 mph along coastal areas. The combination of the heavy wet snow and strong winds could bring down more trees and knock out power yet again in areas that were hard hit from the previous nor-easter.

Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday. However, there is disagreement among the guidance.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/6 41.7° (3.0° above normal)
3/10 39.2°-41.0° (3/6 estimate: 39.2°-41.6°)
3/15 38.2°-41.4° (3/6 estimate: 38.0°-41.6°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 50% (3/6 estimate: 50%)

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Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 2degs. BN.

CMC has 32" of Snow over next 8 days or so. Lol.

One should note a distinction between snow totals and what anyone has left on the ground when one of these late season borderline R/S systems is gone.

Wel,l get it done by mid-month:

2018030700_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

 

 

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Yesterday’s nor’easter brought its heaviest snow away from the NYC urban area coupled with a slice of moderate-to-significant snow across parts of Long Island where 6”-8” fell across a portion of Suffolk County. Winds gusted in many areas between 40 mph and 50 mph, about 15 mph to 25 mph less than during the last nor’easter.

Snowfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 5.5” (new daily record); Islip: 6.5” (new daily record); New York City: 3.2”; Newark: 4.6” (new daily record)

The highest area-wide snowfall amounts included:

Franklin Lakes (2 SSW), NJ: 24.0”; Green Pond, NJ: 24.0”; Highland Mills, NY: 24.0”; Monroe, NY: 26.0”; Montville, NJ: 26.8”; Morris Plains, NJ: 26.0”; New Fairfield, CT: 26.8”; and, Sloatsburg, NY: 26.0”

Outside the NYC area, Searsburg, VT picked up 32.5” snow.

Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday. However, there is disagreement among the guidance.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/7 40.9° (2.0° above normal)
3/10 39.2°-40.4° (3/7 estimate: 39.2°-41.0°)
3/15 37.8°-40.6° (3/7 estimate: 38.2°-41.4°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 49% (3/7 estimate: 50%)

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We officially set the record for the most precipitation from February 1st through March 7th around the area. So far Islip is the leader with 11.00. Every station is at #1. This is even more unusual since February is typically the driest month of the year here.

2/1-3/7 record precip totals around the area:

NYC.....9.48

LGA.....9.02

EWR...8.99

JFK.....9.68

BDR...9.12

ISP....11.00

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We officially set the record for the most precipitation from February 1st through March 7th around the area. So far Islip is the leader with 11.00. Every station is at #1. This is even more unusual since February is typically the driest month of the year here.

2/1-3/7 record precip totals around the area:

NYC.....9.48

LGA.....9.02

EWR...8.99

JFK.....9.68

BDR...9.12

ISP....11.00

Yup 10.65" here.

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While there is much talk about poor model performance in terms of (QPF - Snowfall), keep in mind that model skill for QPF is poor in general which is why many mets ignore it and secondly the high resolution products including the Euro consistently showed that the highest totals would be from interior Northern NJ up through Western portions of the Hudson Valley, which was correct.

I stress time and time again, that you can't take these models verbatim. You need to look at the upper air features and decide for yourself on how that translates to the surface.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

High water volume snow pack here reminds me of March 2010 in terms of flood potential, saturated ground and reservoir capacity. Area is primed for Spring flooding if we don't get a nice dry stretch.

For some reason, we haven't been able to sustain really wet patterns here since the end of 2011. So it will be interesting to see if February began a new pattern or we just revert back to dry again.

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11 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro weeklies cancel spring until late April with more snow coming.

This may turn out to be our biggest February high temperature beat over March on record following a 70 degree February. 80 degrees in February and nothing even close to that showing up for March. 

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The latest March snowstorm departed from New England late yesterday. A period of quiet weather now lies ahead through the coming weekend.

Over the next two weeks, the general blocking that had developed toward the beginning of the month and had contributed to the two nor’easters that lashed parts of the East Coast will likely persist. Although the NAO will move toward slightly negative values the AO could head lower near or after mid-month if a cluster of ensemble members is correct. Considering that strong blocks typically persist, that cluster of ensemble members appears more likely to be correct than another cluster that favors a rise to positive values. All of this means that at least for the next 10-15 days, no sustained genuine springlike weather appears likely.

Finally, even as most of the guidance has shifted toward a solution where a storm system will pass a little too far to the south and east to bring a measurable snowfall to much of the region early next week, that situation still bears watching. The pattern has favored storms taking a track that is closer to shore.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/8 40.3° (1.2° above normal)
3/10 39.3°-39.9° (3/8 estimate: 39.2°-40.4°)
3/15 38.2°-40.6° (3/8 estimate: 38.2°-40.6°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 51% (3/8 estimate: 49%)

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10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be highly anamalous, but the big one would be can we do it in April. 

The record for the coolest March high at Newark following a 70 degree or greater February was in 1997 with a -4 below February.

Year.....Feb....Mar....difference

2018....80......?..........?

1949....76......78........+2

2017....74......73........-1

1997....74......70........-4

1954....74......74.........E

1985...73.......84.........+11

2011...71......80..........+9

1999...70......75.........+5

1939...70......74.........+4

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

For some reason, we haven't been able to sustain really wet patterns here since the end of 2011. So it will be interesting to see if February began a new pattern or we just revert back to dry again.

Last spring was wet for weeks up here. Impressive mud for quite some time and it filled the reservoirs so the city had water to drink through the dry period that followed.

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19 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Last spring was wet for weeks up here. Impressive mud for quite some time and it filled the reservoirs so the city had water to drink through the dry period that followed.

Upstate NY has been much wetter than our area has been over the last 5 years.

 

IMG_0101.PNG.bfb0da6156f298cada8542cf2c7f27fa.PNG

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record for the coolest March high at Newark following a 70 degree or greater February was in 1997 with a -4 below February.

Year.....Feb....Mar....difference

2018....80......?..........?

1949....76......78........+2

2017....74......73........-1

1997....74......70........-4

1954....74......74.........E

1985...73.......84.........+11

2011...71......80..........+9

1999...70......75.........+5

1939...70......74.........+4

There could be a decent warm push March 17/18 as some ridging builds in, but highly doubt we get anywhere near 80F. I think 70 is doable though.

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest March snowstorm departed from New England late yesterday. A period of quiet weather now lies ahead through the coming weekend.

Over the next two weeks, the general blocking that had developed toward the beginning of the month and had contributed to the two nor’easters that lashed parts of the East Coast will likely persist. Although the NAO will move toward slightly negative values the AO could head lower near or after mid-month if a cluster of ensemble members is correct. Considering that strong blocks typically persist, that cluster of ensemble members appears more likely to be correct than another cluster that favors a rise to positive values. All of this means that at least for the next 10-15 days, no sustained genuine springlike weather appears likely.

Finally, even as most of the guidance has shifted toward a solution where a storm system will pass a little too far to the south and east to bring a measurable snowfall to much of the region early next week, that situation still bears watching. The pattern has favored storms taking a track that is closer to shore.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/8 40.3° (1.2° above normal)
3/10 39.3°-39.9° (3/8 estimate: 39.2°-40.4°)
3/15 38.2°-40.6° (3/8 estimate: 38.2°-40.6°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 51% (3/8 estimate: 49%)

Sounds like we'll have a few more chances after that and the previously progged warm up after mid month will not occur.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I don't think next Monday's event will produce the area's last measurable snow this season.

Wow thats a tremendous statement Don.  Based on what you're seeing do you think we could even see a measurable snowfall in early April or do you think it'll be more like the typical March 20-22 period when it would occur? I know that's looking rather far ahead.

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Wow thats a tremendous statement Don.  Based on what you're seeing do you think we could even see a measurable snowfall in early April or do you think it'll be more like the typical March 20-22 period when it would occur? I know that's looking rather far ahead.

I would watch into the first week of April right now. Afterward, there's a chance the pattern could break decisively.

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