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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Today's Euro weeklies do not support snowmans position. Pretty trough-y into April.

Delayed spring look on the weeklies as MJO stalls out in the cool phases instead pushing into the warmer ones. Pretty funny that the MJO never missed an opportunity to go bonkers into the warm phases during the fall and winter.;)

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif.5413700919b93f90bd6dd56c51daea57.gif.56aff9f61ef67f3aa87982f93e2bce43.gif

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Delayed spring look on the weeklies as MJO stalls out in the cool phases instead pushing into the warmer ones. Pretty funny that the MJO never missed an opportunity to go bonkers into the warm phases during the fall and winter.;)

Figures that would happen. I blame la nina.

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7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Figures that would happen. I blame la nina.

Two years in a row when the February temperature departure will be bigger than March. Sets up the odd potential that February sees an 80 degree day but not March. 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Two years in a row when the February temperature departure will be bigger than March. Sets up the odd potential that February sees an 80 degree day but not March. 

That will give us more opportunities for snow during this month and maybe a fluke April snowstorm?

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is one of your worst posts yet, congrats!!!

Have you even looked at the latest suite? No you haven’t. 

The NAO is reloading. More snow threats on the way in the long range

Total wishcast. It’s over come mid-month. See ya in 9 months. Say goodnight

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That system has potential. It bears watching.

I think so too, and looks like a more classic setup to deliver a widespread snow event. Hopefully little potential for an overly amped track because of the 50-50 low setting up. Could definitely be a significant event. 

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I think so too, and looks like a more classic setup to deliver a widespread snow event. Hopefully little potential for an overly amped track because of the 50-50 low setting up. Could definitely be a significant event. 
This could be the event that we have been waiting for since the presidents day storm in 2003- a widespread KU from the MAtl north..

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, USCG RS said:

This could be the event that we have been waiting for since the presidents day storm in 2003- a widespread KU from the MAtl north..

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

I thought Jan 2016 was that lol

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Most of the guidance continues to suggest that New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see 6" or more snow. The GFS remains an outlier and is discounted. My early guess is that the City will pick up 6"-12" snow. Its northern and western suburbs will likely receive 8"-16" snow with some locally higher amounts. Nassau County should pick up 4”-8”, while Suffolk County will probably see 3”-6” snow.

The last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell.

Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday. However, there is disagreement among the guidance.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/5 42.1° (3/5 estimate: 41.8°-42.6°; 3.5° above normal)
3/10 39.2°-41.6° (3/5 estimate: 39.1°-44.5°)
3/15 38.0°-41.6°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 50% (3/5 estimate: 51%)

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9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Some decent coastal flooding this evening. The end of my block is under water again. Pretty amazing with out much wind

Just goes to show the power of the swells from such a large and intense storm offshore. Freeport was able to make it to the low end major mark a few days ago.

Very impressive images of breaking waves *inside* protected Bay of San Juan#PuertoRico. There aren’t many swell-direction options for the waves to make it into the bay like this. Via @CycloforumsPR from the PR Historic Building Drawings Society (on FB bit.ly/2oRVqpXpic.twitter.com/VBpuTTOaQi
 
Not every day you see huge, long-period swell off the Florida coast. 17 ft waves reported ~130 mi east of Cocoa Beach, FL, from the departing #noreaster some 1,500 mi away. #flwx pic.twitter.com/HVpzqxvb1I
 
USGS.01310521.106564.62619..20180228.20180307..0..gif.6fdcb380c67752f65c44e0f3473124d3.gif
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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just goes to show the power of the swells from such a large and intense storm offshore. Freeport was able to make it to the low end major mark a few days ago.

Very impressive images of breaking waves *inside* protected Bay of San Juan#PuertoRico. There aren’t many swell-direction options for the waves to make it into the bay like this. Via @CycloforumsPR from the PR Historic Building Drawings Society (on FB bit.ly/2oRVqpXpic.twitter.com/VBpuTTOaQi
 
Not every day you see huge, long-period swell off the Florida coast. 17 ft waves reported ~130 mi east of Cocoa Beach, FL, from the departing #noreaster some 1,500 mi away. #flwx pic.twitter.com/HVpzqxvb1I
 
USGS.01310521.106564.62619..20180228.20180307..0..gif.6fdcb380c67752f65c44e0f3473124d3.gif

More minor coastal flooding this morning. Absolutly amazing. I think this is the longest coastal flood event we have ever experienced. The end of my street was under water again!!

 

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6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

More minor coastal flooding this morning. Absolutly amazing. I think this is the longest coastal flood event we have ever experienced 

 

It may be near the record for consecutive high tides with at least minor coastal flooding here. They actually had to come and help people leave a party right on the shore of the GSB Saturday night. That was the peak high tide.

http://pix11.com/2018/03/04/partygoers-rescued-after-flooding-causes-evacuation-during-sweet-16/

 

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may be near the record for consecutive high tides with at least minor coastal flooding here. They actually had to come and help people leave a party right on the shore of the GSB Saturday night. That was the peak high tide.

http://pix11.com/2018/03/04/partygoers-rescued-after-flooding-causes-evacuation-during-sweet-16/

 

Dec '92 was up there

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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Most of the guidance continues to suggest that New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see 6" or more snow. The GFS remains an outlier and is discounted. My early guess is that the City will pick up 6"-12" snow. Its northern and western suburbs will likely receive 8"-16" snow with some locally higher amounts. Nassau County should pick up 4”-8”, while Suffolk County will probably see 3”-6” snow.

The last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell.

Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday. However, there is disagreement among the guidance.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/5 42.1° (3/5 estimate: 41.8°-42.6°; 3.5° above normal)
3/10 39.2°-41.6° (3/5 estimate: 39.1°-44.5°)
3/15 38.0°-41.6°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 50% (3/5 estimate: 51%)

That's why I say that to get a double digit snowstorm widespread across the area from March 1st onwards you need a triple phaser.

March 1 2009 was close though and while it was double digits here it wasn't west of here.

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The Mon-Tues storm is going to be suppressed south. That one is for the mid-Atlantic. After that, it’s time to say goodbye to winter 17-18. A massive vortex forms over Alaska, ++EPO takes hold and that’s it. Fat lady singing. Torch develops come next weekend (3/17)

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The Mon-Tues storm is going to be suppressed south. That one is for the mid-Atlantic. After that, it’s time to say goodbye to winter 17-18. A massive vortex forms over Alaska, ++EPO takes hold and that’s it. Fat lady singing. Torch develops come next weekend (3/17)

Stop trolling

It's annoying and stupid

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Mon-Tues storm is going to be suppressed south. That one is for the mid-Atlantic. After that, it’s time to say goodbye to winter 17-18. A massive vortex forms over Alaska, ++EPO takes hold and that’s it. Fat lady singing. Torch develops come next weekend (3/17)

Why are these repeat troll posts not being deleted?

Is there ANY reason Snowman19 has not been banned at this point?

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9 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Why are these repeat troll posts not being deleted?

Is there ANY reason Snowman19 has not been banned at this point?

I’m not trolling. I’m giving my opinion. Just because my opinion isn’t cold and snow until April 1st, doesn’t equal a troll. That’s called censorship when you want a certain opinion silenced 

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14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Mon-Tues storm is going to be suppressed south. That one is for the mid-Atlantic. After that, it’s time to say goodbye to winter 17-18. A massive vortex forms over Alaska, ++EPO takes hold and that’s it. Fat lady singing. Torch develops come next weekend (3/17)

Glad that it looks like suppression right now because we all know where these storms end up in a few days (and we are a part of the Mid Atlantic.)

 

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12 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Why are these repeat troll posts not being deleted?

Is there ANY reason Snowman19 has not been banned at this point?

He actually posted a useful nugget right there- the fact that it's suppressed right now is VERY GOOD NEWS.

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