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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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The next few days will provide a period of quiet weather in the New York City area, even as some light snow could fall across New England resulting in a minor accumulation. However, this quiet won’t last too long. Another fairly powerful storm could bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy precipitation to the region Wednesday into Thursday. This time around, it appears that the system might have a little more cold air with which to work. As a result, prospects for accumulating snow in New York City, Newark, and at least western Long Island appear greater than they were with the recently-departed nor’easter.

The last time New York City saw 4” or more snow in March was March 13, 2017 when 7.6” fell. That storm brought 6” or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia.

Overall, the pattern continues to evolve in a fashion that favors a somewhat warmer than normal month across the region. Little has changed regarding that aspect since the beginning of the month.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/3 44.5° (6.2° above normal)
3/5 42.0°-43.2° (3/3 estimate: 41.0°-45.8°)
3/10 39.7°-43.3° (3/2 estimate: 39.1°-44.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 52% (3/3 estimate: 51%)

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30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just had a shower of mainly grapul that left a light dusting odd

I guess it's rather unstable beneath this tightly wound upper low. I've had on and off grauple/snow showers all day, and it's gotten really gusty in the last few hours. There were lots of leaning and teetering trees around here after Friday's storm, do I wouldn't be surprised if things are blowing down and setting back power restoration efforts. 

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Most of the guidance suggests that another fairly powerful storm could bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy precipitation to the region Wednesday into Thursday. Much of the region from Philadelphia to Boston could see 4” or more snow. Areas in and around New York City could pick up 6” or more. The exact track of the storm will be crucial in determining how much snow falls in coastal areas. Differences persist among the modeling.

Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday.

Finally, there remain hints on the longer-range guidance that a milder pattern could try to develop after mid-March.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/4 43.1° (4.6° above normal)
3/5 41.8°-42.6° (3/4 estimate: 41.0°-45.8°)
3/10 39.3°-42.2° (3/4 estimate: 39.1°-44.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 51% (3/4 estimate: 52%)

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44 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mostly a miss

Everyone needs to enjoy Wednesday. That is very likely the last hurrah for winter. The pattern is going to completely flip starting this weekend and we are going to be in a torch by St. Patrick’s Day weekend. We loose the -NAO and the EPO goes raging positive with a vortex over Alaska. I think it’s fat lady singing time, all she wrote, game over after Wednesday 

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10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Most of the guidance suggests that another fairly powerful storm could bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy precipitation to the region Wednesday into Thursday. Much of the region from Philadelphia to Boston could see 4” or more snow. Areas in and around New York City could pick up 6” or more. The exact track of the storm will be crucial in determining how much snow falls in coastal areas. Differences persist among the modeling.

Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday.

Finally, there remain hints on the longer-range guidance that a milder pattern could try to develop after mid-March.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/4 43.1° (4.6° above normal)
3/5 41.8°-42.6° (3/4 estimate: 41.0°-45.8°)
3/10 39.3°-42.2° (3/4 estimate: 39.1°-44.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 51% (3/4 estimate: 52%)

Don they're already talking about the Monday system being colder and stronger than this Wednesday's system and this Wednesday's sytem delivering about 6-8" for NYC and Long Island.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Everyone needs to enjoy Wednesday. That is very likely the last hurrah for winter. The pattern is going to completely flip starting this weekend and we are going to be in a torch by St. Patrick’s Day weekend. We loose the -NAO and the EPO goes raging positive with a vortex over Alaska. I think it’s fat lady singing time, all she wrote, game over after Wednesday 

Yawn dude (broken record), they're talking about next weekend's system into the folliowing week system bringing snow to the mid atlantic and south.  Hold your damn horses, the pattern changes after midmonth, like it usually does around the 20th.

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58 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yawn dude (broken record), they're talking about next weekend's system into the folliowing week system bringing snow to the mid atlantic and south.  Hold your damn horses, the pattern changes after midmonth, like it usually does around the 20th.

Ah, yea, St. Patrick’s Day weekend would be mid month 3/17 lol

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Ah, yea, St. Patrick’s Day weekend would be mid month 3/17 lol

I fully expect to have it roasting for the final third of the month and I could use some heating bill relief too.

My bill was $900 for last month :(

600 gas 300 electric

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Everyone needs to enjoy Wednesday. That is very likely the last hurrah for winter. The pattern is going to completely flip starting this weekend and we are going to be in a torch by St. Patrick’s Day weekend. We loose the -NAO and the EPO goes raging positive with a vortex over Alaska. I think it’s fat lady singing time, all she wrote, game over after Wednesday 

This is one of your worst posts yet, congrats!!!

Have you even looked at the latest suite? No you haven’t. 

The NAO is reloading. More snow threats on the way in the long range

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Everyone needs to enjoy Wednesday. That is very likely the last hurrah for winter. The pattern is going to completely flip starting this weekend and we are going to be in a torch by St. Patrick’s Day weekend. We loose the -NAO and the EPO goes raging positive with a vortex over Alaska. I think it’s fat lady singing time, all she wrote, game over after Wednesday 


Ugh 3 margaritas deep in ft Lauderdale and ur still...what’s the word______.


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