Rtd208 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 March looks like it may come in like a lion with the potential for a long duration major coastal storm. Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 With the storm opportunities and teleconnections, I would be more shocked if NYC was shut out (snow) than if NYC received 1 ft plus from a storm. Would be pure bad luck IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Not surprising but the Euro is back to an all rain event just like all the other 12z guidance is. The only hope to get snow out of this is for the storm to bomb like hell with very strong lifting so it can dynamically cool. There is just no cold around to be had Friday, even north and west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not surprising but the Euro is back to an all rain event just like all the other 12z guidance is. The only hope to get snow out of this is for the storm to bomb like hell with very strong lifting so it can dynamically cool. There is just no cold around to be had Friday, even north and west of the city This storm is still a week away The block is going to cause madness with the models. We will not know the final solution until at least mid week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not surprising but the Euro is back to an all rain event just like all the other 12z guidance is. The only hope to get snow out of this is for the storm to bomb like hell with very strong lifting so it can dynamically cool. There is just no cold around to be had Friday, even north and west of the city Agreed. I think NYC gets pasted with snow one of the 2 following storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This storm is still a week away The block is going to cause madness with the models. We will not know the final solution until at least mid week next week. Agreed, its going to be another 2-3 days yet before we start to get a better idea on how things will play out late week/next weekend. The one thing we can say at this juncture is that there is potential for a high impact event, finer details unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Agreed, its going to be another 2-3 days yet before we start to get a better idea on how things will play out late week/next weekend. The one thing we can say at this juncture is that there is potential for a high impact event, finer details unknown. Check out day 15 on the GEFS. Colder air in place. PNA is slightly positive. EPO is negative. Blocking is slightly weaker. And a few bit hits showing up. Everyone is focusing on the day 7 threat likes its the last opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Check out day 15 on the GEFS. Colder air in place. PNA is slightly positive. EPO is negative. Blocking is slightly weaker. And a few bit hits showing up. Everyone is focusing on the day 7 threat likes its the last opportunity. I am certainly not, but once again we won't know how exactly the potential event for late week/next weekend will pan out for a couple/few days yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: I am certainly not, but once again we won't know how exactly the potential event for late week/next week will pan out for a couple/few days yet. Agreed the opportunity is still there despite the 12 z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Still a lot of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Still a lot of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Agree that a strong, long duration coastal storm is likely by next weekend. Very strong easterly flow and higher than normal tides could lead to major coastal flooding. Very unlikely to be a snow event. The system after next weekend has a much better chance, more cold air in place with blocking fully in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 10 hours ago, Snow88 said: This storm is still a week away The block is going to cause madness with the models. We will not know the final solution until at least mid week next week. He's right though. That's basically the only way to get snow for your (and my area) with this first system. Well NW of the city might be a different story as they're closer to the cold air. If system one doesn't work out, it needs to get out of the way for system 2. If there's not enough wave spacing between the 2 systems, system 2 will be suppressed. System 2 has a better airmass to work with so let's hope system one does whatever it's going to do and then leaves the area. Lots of model watching to come. Let's see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Mt Holly nws 1251 am afd mentions powerful storm coming. Winter weather headline for higher terrain nw nj & poconos Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: At least for us along the coast, looks like the bigger threat from the first system will be coastal flooding. The storm is coming in right at the peak of the monthly astronomical high tides with the full moon. The second system behind it could be colder with better snow chances for the coast. This is what the latest EPS mean is hinting at. If the 3/7-8 event actually happens and doesn’t get suppressed, the cold will have to come down from aloft (dynamic cooling). There will be no arctic high to the north to wrap in surface cold like we had with the March snowstorm last year. We will need a powerful enough upper low nearby to cause strong enough UVVs to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 CMC is a big coastal rainstorm for next weekend Surface is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 44 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the 3/7-8 event actually happens and doesn’t get suppressed, the cold will have to come down from aloft (dynamic cooling). There will be no arctic high to the north to wrap in surface cold like we had with the March snowstorm last year. We will need a powerful enough upper low nearby to cause strong enough UVVs to do that There will be more colder air to work with than next weekends storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There will be more colder air to work with than next weekends storm I don't think the models have a handle yet on the details of these systems since this is a rather unique setup - you can't be sure exactly where the colder air will be available or where the precip field will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I don't think the models have a handle yet on the details of these systems since this is a rather unique setup - you can't be sure exactly where the colder air will be available or where the precip field will set up Agree Models are adjusting south slowly because of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 This looks to be a rainstorm. There is no cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This will clearly be an all rain for us. The next one could be an all snow event and to me it looks even stronger but yes it will be faster than the first event ago, WeatherFeen2000 saiThis will clearly be an all rain for us. 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 saThis will clearly be an all rain for us. The next one could be an all snow event and to me it looks even stronger but yes it will be faster than the first event next one could be an all snow event and to me it looks even stronger but yes it will be faster than the first event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This will clearly be an all rain for us. The next one could be an all snow event and to me it looks even stronger but yes it will be faster than the first event. I don't think its going to be all rain in the higher elevations north and west of NYC and how the second system reacts to the block will depend on which track the first system takes which is still unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 Honestly, I could care less if it's rain or snow I just want the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Honestly, I could care less if it's rain or snow I just want the big storm. why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 54 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Agree Models are adjusting south slowly because of the block. It doesn’t matter how far south they adjust. There is no surface cold to wrap in. Plus it’s March. The cold has to come down from aloft. Going south means nothing when there’s no cold to wrap in. If there is going to be any snow at all it would have to come from strong lifting dynamics and high precip rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Because its early March doesn't matter - don't need dynamic cooling in each storm in March if a cold HP to the north is sending in cold enough air at all levels of the atmosphere - this setup unfolding doesn't have that cold HP to the north - YET - question is will it develop while a storm develops under the block next week - the so called 2nd storm and possibly a 3rd - the HP that doesn't escape too soon is just as important as the storm itself 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It doesn’t matter how far south they adjust. There is no surface cold to wrap in. Plus it’s March. The cold has to come down from aloft. Going south means nothing when there’s no cold to wrap in. If there is going to be any snow at all it would have to come from strong lifting dynamics and precip rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: A big storm is pretty much a given with the strongest block over Southern Greenland since late 2010. The EPS has 500 mb anomalies to +564 meters. That alone is a big signal for a major event cutting underneath. We will probably set weekly and perhaps monthly 500 mb blocking records for that location. I think the big story with this setup is going to be the coastal flooding and high winds which has the potential to cause as much damage as some hurricanes - example 1962 - just about wiped out Long Beach Island NJ which was much less developed then - if that same storm happens again down there in 2018 the $ amount in damage will be very high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, snow1 said: This looks to be a rainstorm. There is no cold air There is I think the models are too warm given the crashing AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Per TIP in the NE thread: these events that are marginal in the mid and extended range tend to end up more isothermal right around freezing through the critical thickness intervals...right all the way up on up, too. -1 @ 980, 900, 800 ... Classic early spring/spring modeling bias there.. etc.. We'll see... I find it hard to believe though that a GGEM type phasing and a 520 DAM depth SE of ACK would result in that much rain in the CCB ..particularly going from 540 ... shedding some 20 DAM of heights is hard to do without drilling a lot of cold down from aloft ... Having said all that, I don't have a problem with warm storm per se...I also made it clear that's on the table too.. But, prooobably not happening that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 GEFS looks a lot colder for the day 10 threat. That may be a better storm than the upcoming super soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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