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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I find it hard to think it's not snow at -6C at 850 down to even -1 at 925. And 925 may be a hair warm.

I can't seem to get the soundings for the GEM.  Simulated radar makes it look like all rain for eastern mass.  Am I missing something here with regards to cold air aloft?  850mb plots seem warm until 18z Friday.  Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, CoolMike said:

I can't seem to get the soundings for the GEM.  Simulated radar makes it look like all rain for eastern mass.  Am I missing something here with regards to cold air aloft?  850mb plots seem warm until 18z Friday.  Thanks.

Sim radar works with vendor ptype algorithms or sometimes straight up raw model ptype. They tend to handle borderline events pretty bad, even those raw ptype files. So, some interpretation and pattern recognition is needed. I'm not saying the whole area is snow, but easily inland...the GGEM would be a paste job moreso than the GFS.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I find it hard to think it's not snow at -6C at 850 down to even -1 at 925. And 925 may be a hair warm.

The latent cooling would be obscene with the thermal profile like that and precip rates that sick...925 would go to like -3C in an hour or two, lol.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Sim radar works with vendor ptype algorithms or sometimes straight up raw model ptype. They tend to handle borderline events pretty bad, even those raw ptype files. So, some interpretation and pattern recognition is needed. I'm not saying the whole area is snow, but easily inland...the GGEM would be a paste job moreso than the GFS.

Hey Thanks - I'm watching and waiting carefully.  I've got 30 people at my house on Saturday afternoon for a party so it should be interesting.

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Quick glance at 12z so far... expressed some of this last night

0z Euro chased the lead convection too far out east.

You're looking at H5, all the shortwave energy and ULL exiting Pennsylvania, and you're thinking that's screaming for a surface low capture closer to coast. Yet 0z Euro somehow missed it. But that's exactly what 12z GFS/CMC are showing, with the ULL stalling near BM and drifting southeast. 

And that low capture... that's how you get a deep enough system to overcome silly thermals in lower levels. It's after halftime that this storm was always expected to go ballistic.

I fully expect Euro either at 12z or 0z tonight, to step towards the closer capture idea on GFS/CMC.

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58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He was arguing with me WRT that about something, but I thought we were supposedly on the same wavelength? I’m on mobile so couldn’t really get into a good disco with him, but he was saying something about that s/w cutting off the cold. That stronger s/w should yield better confluence and height suppression in its wake. Without it our region probably torches the midlevels to the Can border. 

Yea, I'm not following the "cut-off" of  the cold. Perhaps a miscommunication or something. UL heights falls on the back side produces CAD at the surface into NNE; we can all see that in the way guidance has been trending--the stronger that lead shortwave is, the more confluence and low level CAD comes in behind it.

In terms of warmer/colder it's a bit more ambiguous than that, bc the lead shortwave is precluding an early cut-off, by dampening the primary. Net-Net, the lead shortwave being stronger is a positive moreso bc it forces the storm further east, before the final phasing. In this case, given the broad circulation and moisture feed of the Atl it's a VERY good thing to be west of this beast. I think the risk is now shifting towards a further east solution. 

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