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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Tip was right about that little guy, bc I think that it's now significant enough such that it's affecting our storm much earlier on, even out to hr 48 or so...

 

He was arguing with me WRT that about something, but I thought we were supposedly on the same wavelength? I’m on mobile so couldn’t really get into a good disco with him, but he was saying something about that s/w cutting off the cold. That stronger s/w should yield better confluence and height suppression in its wake. Without it our region probably torches the midlevels to the Can border. 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is like watching a World Series Game 7 in this thread.   

Every play a different reaction regardless of who makes the play.  Star center fielder drops an easy pop up and it's time to trade him, then hits a homer and time to offer a new contract.  The journeyman 3rd baseman hits a bases clearing Triple then next play (model run) throws away an easy play at first for a run scoring error.  

Just huge ups and downs in the crowd.  

Doesn't matter who makes the play, just make it happen.

Man. Trolling your bandwagon trigger with one of your own ;)

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is like watching a World Series Game 7 in this thread.   

Every play a different reaction regardless of who makes the play.  Star center fielder drops an easy pop up and it's time to trade him, then hits a homer and time to offer a new contract.  The journeyman 3rd baseman hits a bases clearing Triple then next play (model run) throws away an easy play at first for a run scoring error.  

Just huge ups and downs in the crowd.  

Doesn't matter who makes the play, just make it happen.

Yeah it makes things pretty entertaining for us sitting on the sidelines. Play Ball!

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man. Trolling your bandwagon trigger with one of your own ;)

So much baseball analogies possible in this.

Like having the closer coming in (Euro) with the #8 hitter up and you know the closer has this 99% of the time... but you're still on pins and needles.  

Then they pinch hit with the ARW who's going to strike out 9 of 10 times but hit a homer the other 1 time.  Who knows where it's going.  

Players dropping balls but then showing redemption in the late innings.  That's how you win games.  Tenacity.

Shane Victorino striking out 20 of 22 times but hitting a Game 6 grand slam against the Tigers in the 8th inning to win the series...never know.

Spring training on the mind lol.

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The storm developing farther east helps LIS with coastal flooding. Keeps the best LLJ east.

The question now is what does the boundary layer actually look like from a thermal perspective. Obviously we toss the GFS but how low do we go? Can the valley get into the goods back here? Seems possible but it's also pretty mild at the outset. 

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just wanted to see 12z improvements...GFS did.

Wasn't directed at you, But i did say i would hold out on this for your area, The models have not handled anything with consistency hence all solutions remain on the table, I still think you will see the Euro correct NW.

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The storm developing farther east helps LIS with coastal flooding. Keeps the best LLJ east.

The question now is what does the boundary layer actually look like from a thermal perspective. Obviously we toss the GFS but how low do we go? Can the valley get into the goods back here? Seems possible but it's also pretty mild at the outset. 

How's omega look back here? If we get into heavy deform, I'd say game on.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

C'mon euro.

Warming up in the bullpen.  Crowds on their feet.  He's feeling nervous but this is what he trains for.... can he sit the first two batters down with an early phase and a more southern sh*t-streak in Maine before getting to the final at-bat under SNE?

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