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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll check that out later when I get the chance when I’m not on mobile. I take your word on it though. 

Ah ha ... don't take my word for it :) I'm speculating and wanting others too, as well.  

I just want it looked into - because the 50,000 ft complexion of the synoptics ...comparing back and forth across different cycles (per interval) and cross guidance types gives the appearance that a pulse of cold was more available in some of those "bluer" runs?  And, I noticed that the handling of the last in the series of those waves up there suggested that could be the source.  

We all know that the Euro's coming in with a once in a 500 year snow dump ...only to have it rain anyway.  I gotta say, we could be looking at 5" of rain there and some pretty impressive flood from that too..  

Nothing like having a multi faceted threat be elusive in each category, huh -

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I don't understand wanting any part of that

Its simple...at this point of the season, I don't want to be bothered with the mess and cleanup if it' a forgettable event....I have a wedding to plan, and fittings Saturday. The rain will be a minimal convenience.

If it's a huge event..great.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its simple...at this point of the season, I don't want to be bothered with the mess and cleanup if it' a forgettable event....I have a wedding to plan, and fittings Saturday. The rain will be a minimal convenience.

If it's a huge event..great.

The wifey is supposed to plan it...you just show up. 

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Not much to be said that others haven't gone over already....the later phase and further north primary is hurting the snow aspect during the first half of the storm as has been discussed ad nauseam....but this subtle trend of a further south upper low will give the opportunity for significant snow in the 2nd half of the system...it just depends on if it doesn't sink SE too quickly...the NAM does and it's mostly advisory type snows (to maybe low end warning snows) at the end for SNE....but there's been other guidance that is a bit more intriguing on that front.

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ski trip to Hunter Mtn?

Yeah watch the east slopes of the Catskills pull 2-3 feet.  They have 4000ft elevations there with populations living at 2000ft...sloping sharply off the Hudson Valley.  They would be a huge upslope area though just don't get a lot of prolonged east flow events.  

They ran right with the ORH Hills and Berk's in 1997 and 1992.  Though just outside of New England that do huge paste bombs very well...underrated snow area in big storms.

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