March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Best post evah wonder what Tom would say, Tom?

Epic February, wow too bad call blew dead rats, hey at least we have tides

[powderfreak]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty sure everyone is just reporting what the Mets in their area are saying, obsession seems melodramatic.

 

Agreed.  It's just something people are talking about.  So much frothing at the mouth and clammy hands.  We are still a long way out.

Once into NAM range watch it give SYR like 4" of QPF.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  It's just something people are talking about.  So much frothing at the mouth and clammy hands.  We are still a long way out.

Once into NAM range watch it give SYR like 4" of QPF.

As soon as the Nam gets in range we will have the 8" qpf run that we will cut by 1/3, You know it will be good for a clown or two run where it goes ballistic with convection.

[wxeyeNH]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Barry B had his 40 yr anniversary today. Another one who I looked up to as a kid. Will be sad when we are left with the rip n readers. 

Yes,  Barry and Harv.  The last of the generations of the greats....   I don't even watch TV mets anymore when I can just read this forum...

[Typhoon Tip]

For the the record and the reading comprehension impaired... I said relative to that run in deference to the GFS. 

I'm not at this time forecasting 30-40" of snow anywhere. Certainly not in CT if we point and clicking. Perhaps there will come a time to do so?  Jesus Christ.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For the the record and the reading comprehension impaired... I said relative to that run in deference to the GFS. 

I'm not at this time forecasting 30-40" of snow anywhere. Certainly not in CT if we point and clicking. Perhaps there will come a time to do so?  Jesus Christ.

It's a minefield in here....you can't post without the peanut gallery engineering drama.

[HoarfrostHubb]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

As soon as the Nam gets in range we will have the 8" qpf run that we will cut by 1/3, You know it will be good for a clown or two run where it goes ballistic with convection.

Cutting it by 1/3 still gives 5.36”

Watch us get that to verify but in the form of rain

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For the the record and the reading comprehension impaired... I said relative to that run in deference to the GFS. 

I'm not at this time forecasting 30-40" of snow anywhere. Certainly not in CT if we point and clicking. Perhaps there will come a time to do so?  Jesus Christ.

Start high and you can always go higher

[dryslot]

Emotions gone wild.

[weathafella]

46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty sure everyone is just reporting what the Mets in their area are saying, obsession seems melodramatic.

 

Thank you doctor.   Obsession can be used clinically or in context.

[Ginx snewx]

I read it 3 times but now I don't know what he was inferring about that GFS run . I am pretty sure my reading comprehension matches up well.  I happen to agree with his assumptions in that post. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Thank you doctor.   Obsession can be used clinically or in context.

Who was obsessed? You spend a lot of time diagnosing.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Who was obsessed? You spend a lot of time diagnosing.

I  do?

Here’s a diagnosis-you’re a fukking nut tonight!

[dryslot]

lol, Time for another nip off the Geritol bottle.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I  do?

Here’s a diagnosis-you’re a fukking nut tonight!

Lol you guys. Best of luck with your obsession

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

You just said Tips post was the best post ever, go back and read what he said, look at the 850 plot and explain how he could be right but no snow in the CTRV. I happen to agree that it's all conjecture  but he is either right on his assumption about the GFS 850 0 line being the snow line or he is wrong, can't be both

 

Tip has everyone west of the canal as a paster . And honestly 4 days out .. with the models all continuing to cool. That’s more likely than the CT river flooding 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, Time for another nip off the Geritol bottle.

It was the best of storms, it was the worst of storms.

The biggies always bring out the best in everyone.

[NorEastermass128]

It’s going to be an interesting week. 

[dryslot]

Snow is serious binness!

[Baroclinic Zone]

You are an obsession 
I cannot sleep 
I am your possession 
Unopened at your feet 
There's no balance 
No equality 
Be still I will not accept defeat

[CoastalWx]

Jesus weenies gone wild. 

[Ginx snewx]

Back to the setup, Euro is pretty insane for a lot of folks and so is the EPS. The Euro control run is even double dipping. Explosive height falls and where and how quickly they happen will be the determination of where the thump is. You could be deeper in the cold and crap rates or you could be under tremendous lift creating intense rates.. We have seen it before. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Back to the setup, Euro is pretty insane for a lot of folks and so is the EPS. The Euro control run is even double dipping. Explosive height falls and where and how quickly they happen will be the determination of where the thump is. You could be deeper in the cold and crap rates or you could be under tremendous lift creating intense rates.. We have seen it before. 

Big storm seems imminent, just need to watch and wait for the goalposts but those qpf numbers are impressive on most models.

P-type freakouts will become unbearable as the days go on.  I like having a bit of lat/long since I don't have much elevation. 

[ORH_wxman]

It's a discussion thread...people shouldn't be inferring forecasts from discussion at this point. It's a fools errand anyways to make a deterministic forecast right now. 

When we start waxing poetic about isothermal snow bombs and how that type of inflow would produce feet of snow, we are usually discussing the model runs and not what we actually think is going to happen yet. They are within the envelope of many possibilities. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We’ve snowed in worse setups. We may end up rain here... but it isn’t a stretch to see how even if it starts as rain... we transition to significant snow here.

Hell, with the qpf on some models you can get an inch of rain and still get 2 feet of snow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We’ve snowed in worse setups. We may end up rain here... but it isn’t a stretch to see how even if it starts as rain... we transition to significant snow here.

Hell, with the qpf on some models you can get an inch of rain and still get 2 feet of snow

Will the real TFlizz please stand up.

[weathafella]

I’m like Ray-OBSESSED with rain turning to big pasty bombing snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a discussion thread...people shouldn't be inferring forecasts from discussion at this point. It's a fools errand anyways to make a deterministic forecast right now. 

When we start waxing poetic about isothermal snow bombs and how that type of inflow would produce feet of snow, we are usually discussing the model runs and not what we actually think is going to happen yet. They are within the envelope of many possibilities. 

Thank you.

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I ... forecast ...

a ...snow bomb... and... feet of snow...

What weenies read 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m like Ray-OBSESSED with rain turning to big pasty bombing snow.

I waś working in Harvard Sq for 4-1-97 and watched torrential rain flip on and off to snow for about 30 minutes and then told my boss I was leaving and he should send everyone else home too.  An hour later there was already 1-2" and it was SN++.   I think my bus to Arlington Heights was one of the last ones to make it up there.