dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 A little more confluence to the north may help out this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I kinda like the southern energy hanging back. the mid level warmth doesnt flood as much out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 That s/w that Brian pointed out, and the fact that it's sort of out of phase compared to 6z through hr 27. We'll see if that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: So I looked at every run of the main models when they had the best winter/snow outcomes, verdict is every single one of them had crashing heights below 534 in the Chicago region 12 Z Thursday, all the warm solutions were plus 540 and really slow to deepen. That is the key spot for me. Nammy with a 546. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: So I looked at every run of the main models when they had the best winter/snow outcomes, verdict is every single one of them had crashing heights below 534 in the Chicago region 12 Z Thursday, all the warm solutions were plus 540 and really slow to deepen. That is the key spot for me. Yes, we want the bowling ball look very early on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Does nam go toward euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The s/w is about 4mb weaker then 06z 1000MB over PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 0z Fri and still no closed low at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Rather large differences compared to 6z. There is a notable lack of phasing through hr 36. Not sure if that is good or bad, you could argue both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Guys... I really think you may be focussing on the wrong gunk ... you need to look N at that wave train pressing east through N Maine... That run yesterday, the 18z? That one showed a slightly farther south axis of motion, and that subtlety made a huge difference on that run compared to the other since, in getting a fresher cold air source in the lower troposphere involved in the circulation down here. I just compared the runs going back some 6 cycles and every time the last wave in that series up N was slightly south, you could see ice flashing into the fray over southern Maine and NH and a flash to snow down here soon after. They are effectively damming off the lvl cold from come south - I'm pretty confident in that under the radar factor in this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z Fri and still no closed low at H5 i smell elephant sh it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It will be east of 6z I think, so that should help northern areas. But this likely won't be nearly dynamic enough for most of SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Guys... I really think you may be focussing on the wrong gunk ... you need to look N at that wave train pressing east through N Maine... That run yesterday, the 18z? That one showed a slightly farther south axis of motion, and that subtlety made a huge difference on that run compared to the other since, in getting a fresher cold air source in the lower troposphere involved in the circulation down here. I just compared the runs going back some 6 cycles and every time the last wave in that series up N was slightly south, you could see ice flashing into the fray over southern Maine and NH and a flash to snow down here soon after. They are effectively damming off the lvl cold from come south - I'm pretty confident in that under the radar factor in this thing. We made note of that earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: So I looked at every run of the main models when they had the best winter/snow outcomes, verdict is every single one of them had crashing heights below 534 in the Chicago region 12 Z Thursday, all the warm solutions were plus 540 and really slow to deepen. That is the key spot for me. Agreed. Great post Ginxy. I noticed that last night too that the best runs had some crushing snows west of Chicago and lows of 996mb or lower in the Indiana/Illinois area. Thats when it really went bowling ball style east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Step to the euro there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Weaker northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Guys... I really think you may be focussing on the wrong gunk ... you need to look N at that wave train pressing east through N Maine... That run yesterday, the 18z? That one showed a slightly farther south axis of motion, and that subtlety made a huge difference on that run compared to the other since, in getting a fresher cold air source in the lower troposphere involved in the circulation down here. I just compared the runs going back some 6 cycles and every time the last wave in that series up N was slightly south, you could see ice flashing into the fray over southern Maine and NH and a flash to snow down here soon after. They are effectively damming off the lvl cold from come south - I'm pretty confident in that under the radar factor in this thing. Good point Tip. Unfortunately I was hoping that little guy could be written off as a nuisance but that shortwave has been amping up in recent runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Agreed. Great post Ginxy. I noticed that last night too that the best runs had some crushing snows west of Chicago and lows of 996mb or lower in the Indiana/Illinois area. Because those runs had an earlier phase, right? Allowing the surface low to deepen earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If we had some cold air that low position at hr 42 would be perfect. Definitely south of previous runs. Hopefully we can get some dynamics going though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Sn0waddict said: If we had some cold air that low position at hr 42 would be perfect. Definitely south of previous runs. Hopefully we can get some dynamics going though.. If my aunt had balls she would be Ginx's uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: i smell elephant sh it firehose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 man that's a nice track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Congrats syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Because those runs had an earlier phase, right? Allowing the surface low to deepen earlier. Yes absolutely, all layers of the cake were cooking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: If my aunt had balls she would be Ginx's uncle. Lol. Low goes further south but now the storm is weaker. Lose - lose situation down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Anyone have a 10m wind map from the Euro for Friday night? The other models show Nantucket in a lull at that time. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Rain to Pittsburg on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We made note of that earlier. no one is really paying homage to it now, that's the point, regardless. Lot of hand wringing at the wrong focus - I don't care who gets "credit" for seeing stuff... but the reality of it's plausible influence on this thing is still there - so, I guess someone made note of it, everyone paused for a second, then summarily resumed the clammer over the wrong focus - okay ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: If my aunt had balls she would be Ginx's uncle. I laid myself out there last night, gave it my best shot, probably will go down in a ball of flames and it is my own damn fault. My dream told beware of Jerrys damn Elephant and I ignored it. Now I have 2 hopes, some great wave watching and Ski areas up north get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: firehose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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