Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 nam is soon, maybe it will dump another 30" for everyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Again, you love to say this but I see great discussion in here. Just because people are being realistic, does not mean bridge jumping. It's discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: A lot of premature bridge jumping it's gonna rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just because people are being realistic, does not mean bridge jumping. It's discussion. Quickly becoming my trigger haha, when people are having great discussion about how it may not work out (or may work out) and someone pops in to talk about bridge jumpers that aren't keeping the faith . You can't just sit there and be like wait for it, it'll snow big regardless of models right now leading up to an event. That disco isn't even fun, just cheerleading type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Quickly becoming my trigger haha, when people are having great discussion about how it may not work out (or may work out) and someone pops in to talk about bridge jumpers that aren't keeping the faith . You can't just sit there and be like wait for it, it'll snow big regardless of models right now leading up to an event. That disco isn't even fun, just cheerleading type stuff. It's the same person every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Quickly becoming my trigger haha, when people are having great discussion about how it may not work out (or may work out) and someone pops in to talk about bridge jumpers that aren't keeping the faith . You can't just sit there and be like wait for it, it'll snow big regardless of models right now leading up to an event. That disco isn't even fun, just cheerleading type stuff. Can't talk about the negatives in here. Can only go with the coldest/snowiest discussions. Science and realism be damned, weenies rejoice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, but to be fair, I may not have placed enough weight on the track of the low BEFORE encountering the block....which is where the neg PNA could hurt. I was probably right to call BS on the whiff for that reason, but the big snow idea maybe in trouble. We shall see. I really don't think this is the issue. ML warmth was always flooding the region until the coastal developed. The difference is, we don't have the final explosive phase off the coast, so ML temps don't immediately collapse. In my view the main issue boils down to a less wrapped up system when its at our longitude.... SNE excluding the Berks and ORH hills, always needed a nuke to get good snow; and this is especially true with a track more tucked into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: nam is soon, maybe it will dump another 30" for everyone.. Wouldn't be shocking. I'd say that I'm interested to see if it keeps the blue bomb after rain scenario from 6z, but it's the NAM so my interest is lukewarm at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Can't talk about the negatives in here. Can only go with the coldest/snowiest discussions. Science and realism be damned, weenies rejoice! Lets talk about the ‘positives’ then....rgem is an all time crushing for ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: So much potential here. Despite the stale/maritime tainted air mass, SFM flips to heavy snow for a few hours late in the GFS evolution. 4 hours of Bourgouin ptype snow, 7.7" accumulation via Cobb method. What if the low level GFS temp field is off by 1 degree (would that warm bias be so shocking)? We can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Do sref's often always indicate nam's next run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 It's been an interesting week .. sort of, with the modeling of this beast. I'm left with this head scratch: How many times do you see a mid level (500 mb) vortex close off ~ 522 DAM surfaces near the eastern tip of Long Island ... yet, it still rains clear to Rutland VT !? That's pretty rare as a combination of verifying characteristics .. assuming the 00z and 06z GFS scores with that. But frankly ...a lot of other guidance are plenty deep at mid levels. So perhaps it should be watched. With such deep heights ...it's actually hard to keep matters purely liquid due to the thermodynamic physics; so probably within 200 mb of the surface it's snowing in that look regardless of the emotional cloud blurring the analytical approach at this time.. heh. This thing must have some very sick instability if that's going to be achieved .. and probably will anyway, as there will be some deep heights falling over top/in tandem. Like, that conveyor on the N side? Thunder should occur ...perhaps mixing wind gusts down, the whole nine. Plus, this thing will probably pound the coast with easterly gales/storm force over a longish fetch, across successive high tides, plausibly amplifying each successive one's ability to encroach on land. Images like dumpsters blithely afloat down the back alley's of Southie could easily be the least of it.. So where's the cold: I am seeing in a lot of guidance shearing a small wave out some 24 to 36 hours prior to the evolution of this thing. This chunk of mechanics is weak, but perhaps ... strong enough. It's producing a package of steady light to moderate snow as it impinges upon the block interface of the -NAO across N Maine.. While it is doing so, it is effectively blocking the llv cold from getting entained in a timelier/suitable fashion. The models are left with having to landscape the surface p-type/thermal plumb based upon dynamics alone, which I think is going to be problematic just simply due to BL resolution issue. They never resolve the stuff very well between 1300 meters and the surface...and that is the level in this thing that is drilling rain almost to Utica. I may be off my rocker on this but I really think the rotted air mass at the bottom not getting a fresher input because of that oddly time wave up north is not helping. And then the models only cooling so much off dynamics is a feedback silver into the first half or even 2/3rds of this thing. This can all be suggested in some recent NAM runs; about 2/3rds of the way through ... rather abruptly, there is a flash over to icing in NH and SW Maine... Then, three hours later... everyone down to the Pike in Massachusetts is over snow ... I think those critical behaviors at those times are reflecting the cold finally being cut loose and getting entrained later on perhaps. Interesting... Anyway... wah wah wahhh... Pretty good nailing the potential at least. This has been on the docket for 10 days or more, for the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just because people are being realistic, does not mean bridge jumping. It's discussion. I am realistically discussing with myself the option on bridge jumping. ...I don't have many good bridges around me though. The one in Hartford, not too far from work is kind of meh as far as height goes. The Gold Star down in New London seems to be in line with Tobin height, maybe even higher. Although, I will have to make a special trip down there which is kind of a pain in the a.ss, but maybe that will be my final destination. If someone can cue me to the time when the heaviest rain will fall in CT that would be great. I would like to go out in a complete downpour. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Do sref's often always indicate nam's next run lol They will follow them, But not always, Maybe it will go a few tics south like it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Do sref's often always indicate nam's next run lol it seems that way, kind of like the ukie to the euro some say.. "positive replies only please" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Well my concerns for getting home now are firmly rooted in how much rain/wind are required to cancel flights in/out of JFK and PWM. Be prepared for my pm questisons, Scott. Berks and NORH could still score. Central NH on the 06z GFS, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: No shunt no whiff yes rain minimal snow sne status as of right now. Hopefully it changes. My dream of you shouting, But the elephant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Wow is the NAM holding back that energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 SREFs don't indicate shiat anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: SREFs don't indicate shiat anymore. Yeah, not to be used in Winter storms for any type of forecasting. as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: SREFs don't indicate shiat anymore. good because it did not look better imo "positive replies only please" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Wow is the NAM holding back that energy. Not a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, not to be used in Winter storms for any type of forecasting. as far as I'm concerned. I've noticed this year they've occasionally picked up on a trend, but good luck if you can find out when/when not to trust them. I was more talking about their ability to predict what the NAM would do. The old SREFs used to do that back in the ETA/RSM days, but I haven't seen that since the latest "upgrade". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, not to be used in Winter storms for any type of forecasting. as far as I'm concerned. Ryan does, and the nam....he has inside info as how they can be used but he never makes it public to weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ryan does, and the nam....he has inside info as how they can be used but he never makes it public to weenies. Don't use the ARW members, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ryan does, and the nam....he has inside info as how they can be used but he never makes it public to weenies. I've switched from WVIT to WOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 First guess is that NAM will be south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 So I looked at every run of the main models when they had the best winter/snow outcomes, verdict is every single one of them had crashing heights below 534 in the Chicago region 12 Z Thursday, all the warm solutions were plus 540 and really slow to deepen. That is the key spot for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Northern stream looks slightly better through hr 24, as does the upstream UL ridge. Difficult to tell if this will be better or worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: First guess is that NAM will be south of 6z. That Thu s/w looks a little stronger cutting through NNE. We need any extra midlevel cold on the backside that we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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