SnowHole413 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I might be crazy but I’m not writing this off until the 0z runs tonight. The valley is definitely done but I still have hopes the Berkshires will get significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can't see the BTV WRF How are you seeing it? The graphics do not load. One change i see is path of 850 Low At 10am 850 Low tucked into w. Long island sound, then it tracks ESE And 850 temps begin to fall below zero From Boston to Ma/ct line by 4pm (and west of HFD) Edit actually max 850 temps For sne are at 7am SLP Goes from S of MTK To over and stall over MTK At 10 ,then slow wsw Then Sw move By 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Coastal impacts still on the table Coastal flood watch up for the EMass coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 You can see the influence of the block in the backed flow up around Hudson Bay this morning. Let's hope the block asserts itself a bit more aggressively in the modeling today. Never would've guessed we'd potentially say "Congrats, Pfreak" with this degree of blocking. One silver lining, albeit from the NAM--so take with a grain of salt--the primary takes a much better track towards Pittsburgh, as opposed to the GFS ramming it up toward Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I think no doubt at this point that the 12/92 and 4/97 type snowfall solutions are off the table, not that they were super likely to begin with. That ML warmth push is no joke and it's becoming consistent across guidance now so the majority of whatever QPF we get out of this thing is going to be liquid. But you can definitely see on the NAM and GFS how it's possible for the cold air aloft to crash SE if this thing fujis off the south coast. With good dynamics still in place that's definitely parachutes for a while. Progressive-ish Euro solution and it's curtains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I think one element that hasn't changed much is that coastal sections are going to take a beat down. Most of the models show gusts to 55mph or more for many hours. Flooding and damage in those areas are strong possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 40 minutes ago, Hoth said: I applaud Ray for sticking to his guns. His reasoning was sound. The primary holding on longer up into the GL region runs counter to my thinking; I thought the block would be sufficient to deflect it on a more southerly route, but such is the adamancy of the modeling that that does not appear to be the case now. Indeed, maybe, as Ray suggested, the -PNA is actually working against us in that respect. Our already marginal airmass will become even more hostile to frozen p-type. With so much juice available with this thing, it is deeply frustrating to think that if we had even an average early March airmass, this storm might've been discussed in the same breath as Feb '13 or March 1888. I still think the Euro looks a bit wonky, and am skeptical of it being so progressive. I'm hoping for earlier phasing today, but do not expect it. Barring the revival of that day 7 threat, this is probably the last trackable event in this locality until some time in late August, so let's hope the juice is worth the squeeze. Thanks, but to be fair, I may not have placed enough weight on the track of the low BEFORE encountering the block....which is where the neg PNA could hurt. I was probably right to call BS on the whiff for that reason, but the big snow idea maybe in trouble. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, DomNH said: I think no doubt at this point that the 12/92 and 4/97 type snowfall solutions are off the table, not that they were super likely to begin with. That ML warmth push is no joke and it's becoming consistent across guidance now so the majority of whatever QPF we get out of this thing is going to be liquid. But you can definitely see on the NAM and GFS how it's possible for the cold air aloft to crash SE if this thing fujis off the south coast. With good dynamics still in place that's definitely parachutes for a while. Progressive-ish Euro solution and it's curtains. I wouldn't say off the table quite yet...but fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, but to be fair, I may not have placed enough weight on the track of the low BEFORE encountering the block....which is where the neg PNA could hurt. I was probably right to call BS on the whiff for that reason, but the big snow idea maybe in trouble. We shall see. I'd say if we had a more progressive trough out west as opposed to it being basically along the west coast, this would have been a far better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Dont sleep on a closed 5H low deepening and slowing as it goes under Eastern long island. Ginx rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I'd say if we had a more progressive trough out west as opposed to it being basically along the west coast, this would have been a far better solution. I actually nailed the fact that models would place the H5 low too far south, then adjust north bc of the RNA....but failed to be mindful of what happens before the system encounters the block, which is why the low is trending from a blizzard here to a mess, instead of shunt to a blizzard, as I had envisioned. I failed to consider that the northward progression of the low is NOT bounded by the block further to the west, which is when it floods the mid levels with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Beware the northward progression of primaries....NYS, game over. Northern PA..meh.....southern PA, ORGIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It's just as much about understanding why you got it wrong as it is being right. Still time to correct some imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I think the EPS are a pretty fair depiction of odds of warning criteria snow across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ginx rule Normally if I saw a Euro MSLP track like that my laptop would hit the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It doesn't help that the airmass blows. If we had a semblance of cold, it would be a hell of a lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: Normally if I saw a Euro MSLP track like that my laptop would hit the ceiling. If some of the models are correct with the closed low south of LI and the eps has a semblance of a clue .. the hills to east and west of valley will get snow. It’s all about timing the flip. Is it Friday afternoon or night. That makes all the difference. Hopefully even your area can flip . I think we’ll have a good idea by 00z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: If some of the models are correct with the closed low south of LI and the eps has a semblance of a clue .. the hills to east and west of valley will get snow. It’s all about timing the flip. Is it Friday afternoon or night. That makes all the difference. Hopefully even your area can flip . I think we’ll have a good idea by 00z tonight My area was always a long shot. It would take an 18z NAM style solution to pull anything decent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Beware the northward progression of primaries....NYS, game over. Northern PA..meh.....southern PA, ORGIE. This is always the case. This storm is more like a SWFE on steroids. The trajectory of the storm from a SW to NE trajectory will always "warm" us to some extent. To your point having the primary further S & E limits this "warming" and also allows for an earlier transfer to the coast cutting off that warming. The other limiting factor is the lack of a fresh source of cold air. We are still dealing with stale Pacific air. We saw solutions on the table that overcame those so the potential was/is still there for some but the large scale crippling solutions faded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 A lot of premature bridge jumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It doesn't help that the airmass blows. If we had a semblance of cold, it would be a hell of a lot different. This would have been a huge snowstorm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: A lot of premature bridge jumping I'm just explaining why it could fail to produce....I think it's time to present it as a realistic possibility. Not a bridge jump. We could very well end up with like 6-12" after a flip, too....doesn't have to be April 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Thread the needle with this airmass Elevations are certainly the places i would still look to Lets get primary a tad south and lets see A beauty of a 850 track while bombing and moods will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This would have been a huge snowstorm for everyone. You could tell 5 days ago this would be marginal based on the airmass...it was our biggest concern at SWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just explaining why it could fail to produce....I think it's time to present it as a realistic possibility. Not a bridge jump. We could very well end up with like 6-12" after a flip, too....doesn't have to be April 97. Yup. I think Jay is still hanging with his friend Jimmy Beam this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 So much potential here. Despite the stale/maritime tainted air mass, SFM flips to heavy snow for a few hours late in the GFS evolution. 4 hours of Bourgouin ptype snow, 7.7" accumulation via Cobb method. What if the low level GFS temp field is off by 1 degree (would that warm bias be so shocking)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Seems to me the key to all of this is where the 700/850 lows close and track. The Euro is about 100 miles SE of Montauk while the GFS is over Ginx's fanny at 18z Friday. That's a huge difference. Also the Euro keeps this moving and trucking south quickly. It shuts precip off early Friday night... though it looks like most of the Euro Ens do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thread the needle with this airmass Elevations are certainly the places i would still look to Lets get primary a tad south and lets keep 850 LOW south of CT coast on 12z models and moods will change Definately. changes will occur even up to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You could tell 5 days ago this would be marginal based on the airmass...it was our biggest concern at SWC. Difference is that would have been wiped out and the idea of it being prohibitive to big snows was an artifact of modeling. However the mid level concerns in association with the primary that were introduced yesterday are of greater concern....the two in combination are prohibitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: A lot of premature bridge jumping Again, you love to say this but I see great discussion in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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