MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The whole northeast including the coast would have gotten crushed if there was more cold air. The h5 low is closed off in a perfect spot on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Not sure if allow to post this map below... but Euro seems to me to be once again chasing convection too far east with a runaway surface low... That plus based on best vorticity and ULL, I'd expect a low closer to coast... maybe it's 1am weenie goggles, but I have to give some weight blending in most other guidance closer to coast... the runaway low does not make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Interior NY gets crushed on all the models and SNE SNE doesn't get crushed on one model....they all engineer ways to not snow, whether by a thermal means, or via a dearth of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Well I’m still up.....wut do the Europeans say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: SNE doesn't get crushed on one model....they all engineer ways to not snow, whether by a thermal means, or via a dearth of moisture. Interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Why I’m still interested is beyond me......SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Interior SNE No, not really. Just the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Not sure if allow to post this map below... but Euro seems to me to be once again chasing convection too far east with a runaway surface low... That plus based on best vorticity and ULL, I'd expect a low closer to coast... maybe it's 1am weenie goggles, but I still have to give some weight blending in other guidance closer to coast... the runaway low does not make sense. Ya Garbage EPS Will be NW We need that closed low to trend to SW PA like will said or good nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Interior SNE Am I considered interior SNE? I want to say yes but that god damn river valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 So glad I stayed up......#GladINeverGetSleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I believe I had some thoughts on this mess several days ago and was loled at.....junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Btw Where does 0z euro close off the 5H low first Bc that looks like convective feedback garbage for coastal low but id like to know where 5H phased closed low position was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Everything ticked north, H5 looks better, definite step in the right direction from 12z QPF only (not looking at thermals) thru hr 72: 12z had 0.2-0.4" roughly to south coast vs. 0z has 1" roughly to MA-CT border and 0.5-0.7" roughly to MA-NH border Anything up in ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Btw Where does 0z euro close off the 5H low first Bc that looks like convective feedback garbage for coastal low but id like to know where 5H phased closed low position was Yeah was just looking at that 0z: H5 closes off between 6z-12z Fri (hr54-60) over ~ central PA 12z: H5 closes off between 0z-6z Fri (hr60-66) northern OH So tonight's run was slightly later and further east Not sure what to make of that... GFS closed off a little more north at 6z Fri... then moves east and stalls around BM, then moves southeast from there My biggest flag on this run is the convection far east dragging the coastal low much farther east than any other guidance including NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Looked at Euro thermal cross-sections (not that anything verbatim is particularly useful at this point)... Heaviest rates (which aren't really heavy) for eastern SNE are between 18z-0z Fri night... in that timeframe > 0C is limited to 925 or below... if we had heavier rates we'd be able to overcome that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I’m not going to hash out the mess of runs last night, but the EPS is solid to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not going to hash out the mess of runs last night, but the EPS is solid to me. Today’s runs are go big or go home. 0z tonight will be narrowing the goal posts (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Today’s runs are go big or go home. 0z tonight will be narrowing the goal posts (hopefully). The biggest thing I noticed is that warm air at 850-ish. It doesn't seem like a block buster snow event anywhere except maybe upstate NY. At least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It’s going to rain for most. A flip to snow will happen for most too. Whether it’s a 1-3” car topper or 6-12” of mashed potatoes is TBD. I think the HECS scenarios are coming off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The biggest thing I noticed is that warm air at 850-ish. It doesn't seem like a block buster snow event anywhere except maybe upstate NY. At least right now. Finally someone admits it isn't just BL model bias. It ain't a model issue. It's an air temperature issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Finally someone admits it isn't just BL model bias. It ain't a model issue. It's an air temperature issue. The nrn stream phucks us and taints the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Finally someone admits it isn't just BL model bias. It ain't a model issue. It's an air temperature issue. Mid level warmth is a relatively newer issue. The old runs with a warm BL truly didn’t make physical sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Mid level warmth is a relatively newer issue. The old runs with a warm BL truly didn’t make physical sense. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Relative is the key word there. It's been an issue since mid day yesterday. Elephant in the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Relative is the key word there. It's been an issue since mid day yesterday. Elephant in the room. Yeah. We can overcome a crappy BL. Crappy MLs nosomuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro still not getting good lift into most of SNE. Maybe southwest areas. Amazing that it is still shunting things S a good deal. And yeah...the midlevel issues have only been real on the solutions where the late close off happens further north...previously they were not an issue. That said, there's still a path for it to flip pretty quickly, but you want that stream interaction early on and get that closed low going through ohio and PIT or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I’m going to stick a fork in this one in terms of snow. Way too warm in the mid levels. If the euro is a torch at 850 with that track it’s curtains for us. the interesting part now is where this track sets up and how big wind/rain/coastal flooding is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro still not getting good lift into most of SNE. Maybe southwest areas. Amazing that it is still shunting things S a good deal. And yeah...the midlevel issues have only been real on the solutions where the late close off happens further north...previously they were not an issue. That said, there's still a path for it to flip pretty quickly, but you want that stream interaction early on and get that closed low going through ohio and PIT or south. When do you think folks flip to snow? Is it Friday afternoon or night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: When do you think folks flip to snow? Is it Friday afternoon or night? Not until Friday night on most guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Exactly. Combination of trend in track and inensity have been towards warmer. 980’s tucked in isn’t going to cut it for most. I made the point days ago that most of SNE needs a nuke. The initial warmth due to track, closer to the coast could easily be overcome if the storm was more wrapped up earlier on. It’s still possible we trend back towards a faster phase... But all things considered the 6z 12 km nam snow map accurately highlights who’s in the the game for a significant snow fall despite the above. In SNE ORH and the Berks are still good for a foot. It’s 12-24”+ for SW ME, and much of NH and VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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