dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Correct meif I'm wrong, but the 4 SD NAO block is an added twist....this season has been progressive. It is an added twist, But hows it working out on some of these runs? It has slowed them down, But it has not kept some of them further south, In the end does it happen? Don't have that answer yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Who has been checking up stream from us concerning what models had and what transpired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I am going to let the drinks flow and stay up for the euro. Luge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: It is an added twist, But hows it working out on some of these runs? It has slowed them down, But it has not kept some of them further south, In the end does it happen? Don't have that answer yet. That isn't the point....you implied that we shouldn't have expected models to handle the synoptic evolution well because they haven't all season, but I'm not sure why that is relevant since this pattern is so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 After seeing the Ukie, not staying up for the Euro, only to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: After seeing the Ukie, not staying up for the Euro, only to be disappointed. I was just thinking the same thing...regardless of what verifies, I don't want to stay up for a disappointing rainer-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That isn't the point....you implied that we shouldn't have expected models to handle the synoptic evolution well because they haven't all season, but I'm not sure why that is relevant since this pattern is so different. I think with the NAO block its irrelevant, Why would the models handle this any better because there is blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: After seeing the Ukie, not staying up for the Euro, only to be disappointed. Yup heading to sleep...it’s not worth loosing sleep over another whacky solution that spans 500 miles from its last run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Last day at my job tomorrow before I start my new one on Monday. With the euro sometimes following the Ukie, and the ukie being garbage... it’s not worth staying up for it. Hopefully some good news in the AM... but am not optimistic at all. I think the euro is going to follow the trend of closing off later and flooding us with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: I think with the NAO block its irrelevant, Why would the models handle this any better because there is blocking? Theoretically speaking because the flow is not so fast....it hasn't worked out, but that was my line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was just thinking the same thing. Still a little ways to go. I'd get some sleep. Tomorrow's runs will be very important. We either see the guidance relax back south which would fit with the theme of this threat (seems to be roller coaster of whiffs vs amped runs) or the amped solutions actually become a real trend...if it's the latter then we are prob toast for a major hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Theoretically speaking because the flow is not so fast....it hasn't worked out, but that was my line of thinking. Granted, blocks present their own challenges, but to say the models would struggle because they have all season when the pattern is totally different is a fraud rationale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was just thinking the same thing...regardless of what verifies, I don't want to stay up for a disappointing rainer-run. Well we are at 71 pages and its 1150 When i wake up at 830a.m 74 pages or less...euro sucked 75-76....kept decent snow prospects 77 or more...Crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Tv met's have to play it cool this far out, even it there was model agreement on a big hit. Bruce Shwoegler isn't walking through that door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Theoretically speaking because the flow is not so fast....it hasn't worked out, but that was my line of thinking. But that only seems to affect what happens with the s/w when it gets up here where the block is, Out west it comes down to how fast/slow the southern s/w is and how it phases with the northern stream and closes off as it moves east, Every model is handling it different, No different then how most of these systems been handled by modeling all winter, There has been no slam dunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Last day at my job tomorrow before I start my new one on Monday. With the euro sometimes following the Ukie, and the ukie being garbage... it’s not worth staying up for it. Hopefully some good news in the AM... but am not optimistic at all. I think the euro is going to follow the trend of closing off later and flooding us with warmth. Good luck with the new gig. Euro out at 10:00p.m.--west coast living has it's advantages! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well we are at 71 pages and its 1150 When i wake up at 830a.m 74 pages or less...euro sucked 75-76....kept decent snow prospects 77 or more...Crush job Ya I look at the post count...if there’s more than a 100 more posts than where we are now...it’s usually good news. Less than that it’s no good. Gotta remember it’s the overnight and most are sleeping...so 100 posts is pretty high for the wee hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Granted, blocks present their own challenges, but to say the models would struggle because they have all season when the pattern is totally different is a fraud rationale. Ok, So do you think the models have handled this better because this pattern is different? I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 BTV WRF much warmer Flips Nash to snow by like3pm friday after about 2" rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The airmass sucks and has sucked for this, Can't put lipstick on a pig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: The airmass sucks and has sucked for this, Can't put lipstick on a pig. Well, actually you can, it just usually ends in shame and regret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just signing in, bad timing for a busy day at work... We were right about tossing last night's 0z Euro and the conviction that guidance today would come roaring back north today. Now it's all about how the secondary dances after it pops off NJ, dictated by trajectory of ULL and blocking. Not sure what to expect of Euro tonight: a drastic leap north from 12z is uncharacteristic, but 0z NAM/GFS + RGEM clown territory + UK all trended to rainers. A compromise would be a big hit for SNE. Regardless, this is such a sensitive setup that I would not nail the coffin for a big hit even if Euro did show a rainer tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Well, actually you can, it just usually ends in shame and regret. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ran through the various NAMs chocolates today: hard to find a consistent theme. I expected the earlier the stream interactions and closing at H5, the further south the outcome, but really the path of the H5 low after it closes is what dictates the trajectory of the coastal low. 12z (whiffer) closes off after 18z (blockbuster). 6z (big hit) closes off after 0z (rainer). All NAM runs pop the secondary somewhere south of LI, and thereafter it dances either over SNE / grazes the south coast / out to the BM depending on interaction with the ULL and blocking. The high ceiling and low floor are still all very possible 60 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Ran through the various NAMs chocolates today: hard to find a consistent theme. I expected the earlier the stream interactions and closing at H5, the further south the outcome, but really the path of the H5 low after it closes is what dictates the trajectory of the coastal low. 12z (whiffer) closes off after 18z (blockbuster). 6z (big hit) closes off after 0z (rainer). All NAM runs pop the secondary somewhere south of LI, and thereafter it dances either over SNE / grazes the south coast / out to the BM depending on interaction with the ULL and blocking. The high ceiling and low floor are still all very possible 60 hours away. Where have you been all winter? Not that any of us would have gotten more snow based on your analysis but you are a great asset here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: But that only seems to affect what happens with the s/w when it gets up here where the block isOh, Out west it comes down to how fast/slow the southern s/w is and how it phases with the northern stream and closes off as it moves east, Every model is handling it different, No different then how most of these systems been handled by modeling all winter, There has been no slam dunks. Oh, ok....I understand what you are saying. Yes, you are right. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: Ok, So do you think the models have handled this better because this pattern is different? I don't. Or course not in hindsight....all I meant was that the flow slowing down may make it easier on the models. Granted it hasn't worked out that way, but its not the same progressive pattern that we have seen all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Its almost surreal to me that i got this feeling that the perception is euro is gonna blow balls and bring torching 850's and then maybe a late flip just based on other model trends (for sne) For CNE thou i believe they got their best shot to thread the needle this run and see a crushing, esp bc im not sold that closed low gets as far north as Erie,Pa and torches up to Berlin. C'mon euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Or course not in hindsight....all I meant was that the flow slowing down may make it easier on the models. Granted it hasn't worked out that way, but its not the same progressive pattern that we have seen all season. You would think it would make a difference theoretically, Not being progressive though, Has not changed any of the other aspects on the models as i mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: You would think it would make a difference theoretically, Not being progressive though, Has not changed any of the other aspects on the models as i mentioned above. Yes...I have overlooked what goes on before the system reaches the block, actually. If this storm doesn't work out, it will be because of that...I totally dropped the ball on that. You are right....a lot goes on before it reaches the block. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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