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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Not going to BS. Harvey not bullish concerns me.

Is there a reason to be bullish right now though. No model currently is showing major snowfall anywhere in SNE.

Still a few days away.. but for now.. prob the safe call.

The tv aspect also plays a role. Tough to go on air and sell a major snowstorm when nothing currently supports that, even if they think it may happen.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is there a reason to be bullish right now though. No model currently is showing major snowfall anywhere in SNE.

Still a few days away.. but for now.. prob the safe call 

I thought he could have done a better job conveying uncertainty.....its not a slam-dunk rainer.

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Nobody on TV was bullish in Mar 2013 either...at the last minute with about 36 hours to go, Harv came in and upped amounts to at least warning criteria to lead the pack (while others went down in flames). This one is still a good solid 2 runs away from reaching the same timeframe as '13....granted, I think this one has more work to do than '13 did. That one had a stale airmass too but a little better than this one.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody was bullish in Mar 2013 either...at the last minute with about 36 hours to go, Harv came in and upped amounts to at least warning criteria to lead the pack (while others went down in flames). This one is still a good solid 2 runs away from reaching the same timeframe as '13....granted, I think this one has more work to do than '13 did. That one had a stale airmass too but a little better than this one.

They only remember the last forecast 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody on TV was bullish in Mar 2013 either...at the last minute with about 36 hours to go, Harv came in and upped amounts to at least warning criteria to lead the pack (while others went down in flames). This one is still a good solid 2 runs away from reaching the same timeframe as '13....granted, I think this one has more work to do than '13 did. That one had a stale airmass too but a little better than this one.

How bad were TV forecasts up there? 3-6"?

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... a couple days... and even then.. there will be rain to start.

Still an eternity, Don't know why anyone would think this would be solved at a longer lead, Everything this winter has been chaotic right up to the last 24 hrs and the Northern stream has been fairly dominant.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

They only remember the last forecast 

The funny part about that one is I remember I had an odd alliance with messenger (who was often against me pushing things SE, lol)...we were the two most bullish by far in that one on here. Weenies kept leaping off the bridge every run on that threat because of QPF queening and then believing the GFS low level temps showing rain despite like -3 to -4 at 900mb...or some other model oddity that was preventing them showing a ton of snow.

 

We'll see how this one trends...the biggest problem with this one is not knowing how it tracks in the early stages....they all keep ending up near the BM eventually, but how it gets there is the most important.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Still an eternity, Don't know why anyone would think this would be solved at a longer lead, Everything this winter has be chaoyic right up to the last 24 hrs and the Northern stream has bee fairly dominant.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 4 SD NAO block is an added twist....this season has been progressive.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie looks like an absolute furnace to me early on...the 72h panel looks nice over the benchmark, but it's over ginxy's fanny at 60 hours...raining to powderfreak, lol. Basically a NAM solution.

Like you said, the transition to the benchmark is critical. Does it cut underneath like the 18z NAM or is it getting there from upstate New York.. big difference.

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