dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha used like the neighborhood bicycle. The pink one with the tassles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Absolute nudity run for my old stomping grounds in Ithaca NY. That's how I knows it's not going to happen...lol. They are not good in synoptic systems. Hope they don't get a repeat of the blizzard from last March. That storm tucked in too close for eastern areas...relative to what could've been, while they got 14.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Post count has dropped off considerably after getting slapped with the nam weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: SREFS being north is usually a flag for the Nam, Terrible. My favorite is ARW4 that leaves 6-8" of QPF in the Adirondack High Peaks region. Either avalanches or landslides depending on temps, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, Supernovice said: Hey don't post often but....I work near rowes wharf in Boston and to see the flooding from the previous nor'easter, it was eye opening to say the least. I don't want to say it's being underplayed on here, but maybe so to the general public? do you have serious concerns given the multiple tide cycles...regardless of whether or not PF torches ha, albeit tides are what...1.5 ft lower this month in general? And a completely different storm- no hurricane type surge this time. Scott specifically seemed to think it might be an issue, any thoughts? What do the models imply as far as storm surge/ wave heights etc? Read back a couple pages about 730 or so, normal tides are .6 less than Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Read back a couple pages about 730 or so, normal tides are .6 less than Jan Also I would suppose the further north the storm ends up being the less the tide threat to southern areas as the strongest winds and repeated tides get pushed more up the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 SREFS being north is usually a flag for the Nam, Terrible.Well there’s always the ICON to fall back on. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Was not following each model run but now the at least for the NAM makes things more interesting for the northern folks. Staying up for the GFS. That will be a big run since we are now 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 In another twist, the 3km NAM/WRF has a massive ice storm look through its run at 60 hours in central New England. Mid-levels torched but chilly at the surface. Lot more ice to go after this if extrapolated out. Buries upstate NY in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I think it will nuke us. I don’t know...this has pretty much defied everybody’s ideas of what may happen from run to run. Every model has been all over with its ideas...so much for this being handeled with more stability due to the anomalous Block like was thought a couple nights back(which I happened to agree with you on because it did make synoptic sense)...but in fact it’s been just the opposite??? What a clusterf**k right now. it would not surprise me if the Euro is still a whiff, or rain to the Canadian boarder at this point...that’s how wild the swings have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 45 minutes ago, Supernovice said: Hey don't post often but....I work near rowes wharf in Boston and to see the flooding from the previous nor'easter, it was eye opening to say the least. I don't want to say it's being underplayed on here, but maybe so to the general public? do you have serious concerns given the multiple tide cycles...regardless of whether or not PF torches ha, albeit tides are what...1.5 ft lower this month in general? And a completely different storm- no hurricane type surge this time. Scott specifically seemed to think it might be an issue, any thoughts? What do the models imply as far as storm surge/ wave heights etc? The tidal chart for Boston harbour is projecting only a difference of less than 1/2 foot (11.7' Friday am compared to 12.1' from the previous storm). It doesn't have to be a 949 mb low to deliver a very destructive surge...and the potential exists on just the right track, rate of deepening, and timing to conspire on delivering a surge within a foot of the January blizzard. That said, alot is still up in the air, literally, in terms of nailing down such specific details with this setup and at this lead-time. Eta: 36 hours...should be better able to assess the degree of severity far more accurately. As you and others have mentioned, the prospect of the aforementioned combined with a long duration event, over multiple tidal cycles is a most definite concern for the coast. EDIT: to clarify the tidal figures above reference only the normal high tide...not any expected surge or wave heights. http://ma.usharbors.com/monthly-tides/Massachusetts-Boston Harbor%2CSouth Shore/Boston Harbor/2018-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: In another twist, the 3km NAM/WRF has a massive ice storm look through its run at 60 hours in central New England. Mid-levels torched but chilly at the surface. Lot more ice to go after this if extrapolated out. Buries upstate NY in snow. Those algorithms are whack, always overdone and certainly can't handle accretion or latent heat release Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I admire Ray for his steadfastness. Just letting it marinate while the models swing wildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: In another twist, the 3km NAM/WRF has a massive ice storm look through its run at 60 hours in central New England. Mid-levels torched but chilly at the surface. Lot more ice to go after this if extrapolated out. Buries upstate NY in snow. More berks than cne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 46 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Jeez, more frickin ups and downs up here. Storm, no storm, storm, warm storm. I have been worried I wouldn't see QPF. Now finally into QPF and instead of a blue bomb it could just be rain all the way up here. This has March 2001 redux written all over it. At least in terms of anticipated Boom/Bust potential for everyone in the northeast....Buckle up, Gon be bumpy ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 In a nutshell, a closed low over Erie region is bad for most of us...maybe parts of Maine and NNE do ok. We want to see that tracking over OH and near or south of PIT. The trend of dragging the southern vort is going to cause later and further north closing off...which seems to be the trend at 00z tonight. The GFS is already dragging its heels through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I see slower interaction early on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: In a nutshell, a closed low over Erie region is bad for most of us...maybe parts of Maine and NNE do ok. We want to see that tracking over OH and near or south of PIT. The trend of dragging the southern vort is going to cause later and further north closing off...which seems to be the trend at 00z tonight. The GFS is already dragging its heels through 24 hours. Yea, its going to be a worse run than 18z....can already tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Will the GFS have that odd thermal issue again? Is it a semi permanent seasonal thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Will the GFS have that odd thermal issue again? Is it a semi permanent seasonal thing? Thermal issues aside, if it phases more slowly, then the synoptic solution will blow dead ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nothing good about this run, so far imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 This run is going to blow. Still hasn’t closed off through 48. Warmth is going to flood in on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: In a nutshell, a closed low over Erie region is bad for most of us...maybe parts of Maine and NNE do ok. We want to see that tracking over OH and near or south of PIT. The trend of dragging the southern vort is going to cause later and further north closing off...which seems to be the trend at 00z tonight. The GFS is already dragging its heels through 24 hours. If that is real and permanent... that is the nail in the coffin for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ukie and euro are gonna need to blink Thou gfs has that odd chance to lead a coup The popes been on fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If that is real and permanent... that is the nail in the coffin for SNE Finally closed at hr 54 near Erie....bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GFS says Shut em down. Biggest Euro run of the year in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ukie and euro are gonna need to blink Thou gfs has that odd chance to lead a coup The popes been on fire He was advocating for a snowier, middle ground solution, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nice swath of 7” of rain in the deep south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Slightly worse than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 0z so far is powderfreak approved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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