ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Absolute nudity run for my old stomping grounds in Ithaca NY. That's how I knows it's not going to happen...lol. They are not good in synoptic systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:05 AM, Southshorewx said: Yes they did. Expand Thanks for the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:45 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just stick to guns.....all I'm doing. Let the BS settle. I have confidence in my ideas in relation to how this will end up. Expand NOISE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:43 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: you asked for it Expand I really don’t want the QPF, but I’d take 2.00”+ of snow. I’d rather dryslot than get a May 06 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:17 AM, mreaves said: His new name shall be Ricky Nelson Expand I'm not sure I like the comparison........ended badly. On 2/28/2018 at 2:34 AM, dryslot said: Yeah this is going to be better up here, Precip field is well north of 18z. Expand Give us some qpf and worry about type later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:46 AM, sbos_wx said: NOISE Expand The EURO was largely a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just another example of our love/hate relationship with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:45 AM, ORH_wxman said: Absolute nudity run for my old stomping grounds in Ithaca NY. That's how I knows it's not going to happen...lol. They are not good in synoptic systems. Expand I'm surprised this run isn't better for CNE. The 18z run was able to nuke the coast with dynamic cooling... the warmth this run seems so much more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The EURO was largely a whiff Expand Won't be the case at 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Jeez, more frickin ups and downs up here. Storm, no storm, storm, warm storm. I have been worried I wouldn't see QPF. Now finally into QPF and instead of a blue bomb it could just be rain all the way up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:45 AM, ORH_wxman said: Absolute nudity run for my old stomping grounds in Ithaca NY. That's how I knows it's not going to happen...lol. They are not good in synoptic systems. Expand Southern tier of NY has had some huge runs the past few days mixed in. Northern side of bowling balls are how they do it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro's not doing much better. In general there's a dearth of continuity from any source on this so think about that before you impugn any particular model. Some of the other more dependable model sources have been spraying solutions all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Toss it, Trebeck. Toss it long, toss it hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Gotta watch the SW piece on these upcoming 00z runs. This run was a lot slower early on in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:48 AM, sbos_wx said: Won't be the case at 1am Expand No, I think it will nuke us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:48 AM, CT Rain said: I'm surprised this run isn't better for CNE. The 18z run was able to nuke the coast with dynamic cooling... the warmth this run seems so much more impressive. Expand The ULL almost goes northeast for a time on this run rather than east like every other model so I think that drove obscene warmth north. I was expecting it to go east too and destroy dendrite and monads with 35 inches of snow. Well see what the big boys say later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I've been joking about the NAM run that brings 3-4" of QPF to SYR and ROC... there it is. You can tell this run isn't as good for the populations because there haven't been a dozen snow maps posted yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:49 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Euro's not doing much better. In general there's a dearth of continuity from any source on this so think about that before you impugn any particular model. Some of the other more dependable model sources have been spraying solutions all over the place Expand I think the NAM has been the most unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 47" out towards SYR.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:48 AM, sbos_wx said: Won't be the case at 1am Expand Belvedere and Euro at 1am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:47 AM, moneypitmike said: I'm not sure I like the comparison........ended badly. Give us some qpf and worry about type later. Expand Oh, There was plenty of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:51 AM, dryslot said: 47" out towards SYR.......... Expand Last run was 12", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:51 AM, dryslot said: 47" out towards SYR.......... Expand I actually think that's the most snow forecast out of any run so far for anyone. That is a disgusting pivot point in west/central NY. 4.5-5.0" QPF all as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Hey don't post often but....I work near rowes wharf in Boston and to see the flooding from the previous nor'easter, it was eye opening to say the least. I don't want to say it's being underplayed on here, but maybe so to the general public? do you have serious concerns given the multiple tide cycles...regardless of whether or not PF torches ha, albeit tides are what...1.5 ft lower this month in general? And a completely different storm- no hurricane type surge this time. Scott specifically seemed to think it might be an issue, any thoughts? What do the models imply as far as storm surge/ wave heights etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:51 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: Belvedere and Euro at 1am? Expand Tito's American Handcrafted Vodka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:50 AM, powderfreak said: I've been joking about the NAM run that brings 3-4" of QPF to SYR and ROC... there it is. Expand Yeah everyone will have a turn with the NAM. Maybe even more than one. You and dendrite (prob on different runs) will get your 35" juggernaut in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 SREFS being north is usually a flag for the Nam, Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:54 AM, powderfreak said: I actually think that's the most snow forecast out of any run so far for anyone. That is a disgusting pivot point in west/central NY. Expand I didn't think you could get atlantic moisture that far west but on that jet streak anything is possible................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 2:54 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah everyone will have a turn with the NAM. Maybe even more than one. You and dendrite (prob on different runs) will get your 35" juggernaut in the next 36 hours. Expand Ha used like the neighborhood bicycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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