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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

He was joking

Eh....we'll see what happens. I wasn't totally joking, but I won't be surprised if he gets whacked, either.

Probably do first call tomorrow night, and Final call Thursday night......I wanted to do it tonight, but guidance is still really divergent.

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28 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Lol.   40/70 says,  "I think your screwed".  JT CT says,  "congrats Dendrite".  That narrows it right down!!!

I wish I could be of help. I’ll be in the southern greens starting Thursday night. Luckly Stratton faces due east and is the highest point on the southern spine. So I think we do well (chance of 12”+ 50/50)

honestly though as of right now the best place for 12”+ looks to be the eastern Catskills ridge

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First call final call, you ready lol

Let's start with the tides. 3 high tide cycles if not more with moderate to severe coastal flooding. Surge 3 to 4 feet East facing coasts. Waves 15 to 25 ft. Severe erosion, new inlets cut on the Cape.

Winds gusts to 70 on the coast 45 inland

Rain/qpf  2 to 4 inches EMA  2 to 3 all of SNE 2 plus CNE 1 NNE

Snow Berks Monads ORH Hills 15 to 25  NE Mass 12 to 18  NE NW CT highest elevations 8 to 16  . Whites Greens Maine interior 8 to 12 Every other flatlander under 750 ft 6 to 12, coastal plain 4 to 8 except immediate EMA coasts  south of PYM trace to 1  Southern ECT RI 1 to 3 SWCT coast 3 to 6. Power outages 200K plus.

 That's all I got models  be damn

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

First call final call, you ready lol

Let's start with the tides. 3 high tide cycles if not more with moderate to severe coastal flooding. Surge 3 to 4 feet East facing coasts. Waves 15 to 25 ft. Severe erosion, new inlets cut on the Cape.

Winds gusts to 70 on the coast 45 inland

Rain/qpf  2 to 4 inches EMA  2 to 3 all of SNE 2 plus CNE 1 NNE

Snow Berks Monads ORH Hills 15 to 25  NE Mass 12 to 18  NE NW CT highest elevations 8 to 16  . Whites Greens Maine interior 8 to 12 Every other flatlander under 750 ft 6 to 12, coastal plain 4 to 8 except immediate EMA coasts  south of PYM trace to 1  Southern ECT RI 1 to 3 SWCT coast 3 to 6. Power outages 200K plus.

 That's all I got models  be damn

Boldly going...

plausible....

Wow at the winds...not doubting, just beefy

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First call final call, you ready lol

Let's start with the tides. 3 high tide cycles if not more with moderate to severe coastal flooding. Surge 3 to 4 feet East facing coasts. Waves 15 to 25 ft. Severe erosion, new inlets cut on the Cape.

Winds gusts to 70 on the coast 45 inland

Rain/qpf  2 to 4 inches EMA  2 to 3 all of SNE 2 plus CNE 1 NNE

Snow Berks Monads ORH Hills 15 to 25  NE Mass 12 to 18  NE NW CT highest elevations 8 to 16  . Whites Greens Maine interior 8 to 12 Every other flatlander under 750 ft 6 to 12, coastal plain 4 to 8 except immediate EMA coasts  south of PYM trace to 1  Southern ECT RI 1 to 3 SWCT coast 3 to 6. Power outages 200K plus.

 That's all I got models  be damn

How much for kjc

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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

We will still get mocked for being fearful of it too. And yet it would seem we are on the outside looking in again when it appears.  Luckily I’ll be in Toronto and will be able to ignore the entire thing. 

It happens more then not up here, Tough position to be in.

 

 

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1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Well I'm not sure if I added any value to the forecasts I did tonight on-air. Extremely tough to convey the uncertainty and sound like you know what you're talking about. 

Although I didn't watch your forecast, I have no doubt that you certainly added much value in it.  That level of humility is most appreciated by myself.  Please forgive me for going somewhat off-topic in order to give a little background that informs my own humble opinion.  Back in the day, 25 years ago, my professor told us we can either have humility or we will learn it thorough the profession.   Of course, being a very confident, borderline-cocky 22 year old  (Like many of us were at that age) it took some time to truly appreciate what he meant.  In doing so, I learned to develop a more conservative approach to operational forecasting during the subsequent years that followed. 

Much has changed since I left the field, at my ex-wife's urging only three years after obtaining my degree, but the inexact nature of the science and those wise words have not; despite the impressive advances in numerical modeling.  

In short, I, for one, feel it's a sign of an excellent meteorologist/forecaster (like yourself and the others I see posting on this forum-not simply limited to degreed mets) who provides the public (or their clients) with all reasonable scenarios still in play and conveys the degree of difficulty contained in that forecast.  By doing so, one minimizes the relative error involved...while assuring the public isn't inadvertently given a false sense of security, one way or the other, when dealing with a prospective forecast that has a higher probability of error than otherwise might be the case.      

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

6 plus? Watch modeling give us .1 qpf now that I did this. Basically spent the last 2 hrs looking at everything except my wife. I probably am smoking Meth but it's my best guess.

It's not terrible. I think higher terrain will have a big advantage.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6 plus? Watch modeling give us .1 qpf now that I did this. Basically spent the last 2 hrs looking at everything except my wife. I probably am smoking Meth but it's my best guess.

I heard smoking meth gives you grandiose visions.

I agree with the coastal impacts. East facing beaches are going to be battered by enormous waves containing tremdous energy. We have the chance of a fully developed sea. Something that’s very rare for the east coast. So waves will have much higher periods then your run of the mill nor’easter. Something like 15-17 seconds instead of 12-13. That makes a tremendous difference in damage potential  

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