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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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29 minutes ago, 512high said:

Tip, with that said, will "inland" feel the winds? or just a coast thing? Inland I'm speaking 35-60 miles away

Good question... prooobably not.   Although ... even 40 mph wind gusts if occurring amidst 1/8 mi vis, 31 F blue sintering plaster of Paris is a major problem obviously to infrastructure/grid concerned.  There may be proper studies on the matter but knee jerk guess? I'd say 30+mph with freezing wet snow of large mass is plenty headline worthy.

A detail we can only envision from/for now but might become more clear in the spectrum of threats this thing looks to offer, but I gotta say... every sector may up in it to put it nicely and dealing with their own crisis and unaware.  Like, no power impassible interior has no idea the back bay is helicoptering people out of waste deep deathly sea slush.  Anyway, sorry to right the cryopocalypse prologue here but that's a violent solution on that GFS run and I'm looking at these g-damn tele's and going, what the hell are we doin'? 

Seriously, the PNA is rising from -6 to 0, in 9 days flat. That's 6 points under ten days!  while this thing is happening, a -4 NAO is locking down the circulation medium.  I dunno - that's probably the best signal from that method I've seen gong back 10 years. One of them anyway. 

Oh hell.. it's a matter now of what's going to wrong I suppose... Usually, something does to make it manageable. 

Oh yeah...wind.  Yeah, it's really hard to generate those kind of winds inland. Particularly considering the viscosity of the BL.  The best wind occurs from some form of convetive overturning and these synoptic scale eye-popper bombs ... they usually don't have that as impressive as they may seem.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan’s channel saying heavy rain and wind..possible flooding for all CT.  She said maybe a few snowflakes at the end.  Guess she is hedging on the warm side.

Perfectly acceptable for now... 

These recent model runs are new trends supporting colder profiles.  Obviously we've talked about that possibility ...for couple days at this point, but, prior to these runs and still quite frankly, cold liquid could transpire and still be a big tempest.

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan’s channel saying heavy rain and wind..possible flooding for all CT.  She said maybe a few snowflakes at the end.  Guess she is hedging on the warm side.

Our 925s are so torched on the GFS we don't get them cold enough til after 00z Friday. Not saying I buy it but I'm sure that's what she is using along with the Euro which although colder aloft had BL issues. 2m temps obviously are one of the harder variables for the models to predict correctly even at a much shorter lead time so I'll take some solace in that.

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Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

Our 925s are so torched on the GFS we don't get them cold enough til after 00z Friday. Not saying I buy it but I'm sure that's what she is using along with the Euro which although colder aloft had BL issues. 2m temps obviously are one of the harder variables for the models to predict correctly even at a much shorter lead time so I'll take some solace in that.

See Will's post on those soundings. Bogus.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

At this point the only thing you need to do as a public met is to tell everyone there could be a high impact storm (esp on the coast) this Friday and that details will become more clear in a couple days. 

Oh I agree. I was just saying that she shows a complete rain storm as of now fir all CT.   Of course she said we have to monitor it going forward and all that.. but did say it’s looking like mainly a rain event at the moment.   

Not saying what she said is wrong or right ..just posted for discussion.  

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