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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, ajisai said:

hasn't the gfs been pretty garbage this season until the last minute for most systems? hope it can redeem itself.

Its probably been the worst its been in any winter ever that I can remember.  The last storm that brought a wet snow event here it was actually N and W of most models 3-4 days out and busted badly

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, it has that borderline airmass feel where dynamics have to outweigh the warmth. We here at SWC have told our viewers to check in tomorrow night for finer details but r/s line who gets what may not happen until we nowcast. 

yeah I'm sure there will be details which are certainly nowcast...especially if we are talking about a major band of snow which would be likely

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Glad I've had rain/snow in the forecast since Sunday!

3 different people at 3 different times asked me my forecast and were shocked when I said rain turning to heavy wet snow. They said the tv guys said all rain. I thought oh.. they must have watched 3 or 8. They said it was channel 30. It was pretty embarrassing since I always sing your praises. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3 different people at 3 different times asked me my forecast and were shocked when I said rain turning to heavy wet snow. They said the tv guys said all rain. I thought oh.. they must have watched 3 or 8. They said it was channel 30. It was pretty embarrassing since I always sing your praises. 

Not everyone lives at 970'

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Were they shocked it was no longer shunted?

I lol'd

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You can see the differences at H5 from hr 48 at 12z and hr 42 at 18z. It appears the Greenland block is forcing a little more confluence (more notable after hr 42 at 18z) and a cleaner phase causes the s/w to actually dig more ESE...a good thing.

AKA the northern bounds.

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

What does the coastal flooding situation look like for a storm like this? You guys have any good analogs? Boston looks like ground zero from a coastal flooding standpoint imo. Looks like strong east wind with enormous fetch would just pile water up into Boston Harbor.

Every storm is different with tides wind direction, timing etc...  personally February of 2013 was pretty ugly around here.  It has been a while since we have had a true multi cycle beast.  As you mention it sounds like this one could have an enourmous fetch with it.  Wave heights also if seas have had a chance to build upwards offshore could be ugly.  The past few deals have not had more then one cycle effected and seas had not really built to north of 20 feet before the storm was moving on.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s a good thing your clients have you.

What's your thought Brian?  I just have never had a good feeling this storm will be much of anything up here.  I still don't.  The plow guys that call me before each storm are all calling me  and asking what is going to happen.  I just keep telling them I feel this will  stay south for the most part.    Just don't have a good feeling much will happen north of Concord NH.   Still time for a shift north but that screws all the guys in SNE any chance of heavy snow....

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

What's your thought Brian?  I just have never had a good feeling this storm will be much of anything up here.  I still don't.  The plow guys that call me before each storm are all calling me  and asking what is going to happen.  I just keep telling them I feel this will  stay south for the most part.    Just don't have a good feeling much will happen north of Concord NH.   Still time for a shift north but that screws all the guys in SNE any chance of heavy snow....

I think you're screwed.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I must admit it’s going to hurt watching SNE getting pulverized after I’ve been waiting for my personal firehose up here for decades. Outties will probably become innies.

Jeez,  just got a text from the owner of Tenney mountain in Plymouth.  They have been trying to reopen for years.  They finally got the okay to open  (I think today).  They don't have enough snow on the slopes and need a replenishment to open this weekend if they can open this year.  He wanted to know my thoughts for a 12+ plus  storm.  I have not responded yet.   My gut as I have been posted, its not going to happen.  First downslope from the Whites in a big system.  Then does the heavy qpf get up here and third is temperature as the dynamics stay south.  I think I would give the chance of a 12" storm about 25% for the Southern Whites.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I must admit it’s going to hurt watching SNE getting pulverized after I’ve been waiting for my personal firehose up here for decades. Outties will probably become innies.

Coop not crushed at least. You can have my snow. 

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33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not to carp on anyone. People will obviously focus on snowfall potential, inland, from these sort of things, but the biggest threat assessment is in the CF and has been all along. I would even think your southern zones close to the western end of LI Sound are not out of the woods ... I'm not fully convinced they get cut a break by a temporary west flow such as the N biased GFS.  IF you guys get consecutive tide cycles like .. my god with this.

Lunar spring tide is scheduled in there (I think?) ... or close enough that it's not helping

Mirror carp?

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