powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wife and kids move in with her fam for 2 months while he waits it out in a 40F house living off the land and cooking outside oven an open fire using wood from all of the oak branches piled across his yard. He doesn't strike me as that type, maybe MPM.... but amid the chaos I picture a well waxed and sparkling clean truck sitting amongst downed trees while he tries to escape to NH. (New Haven, CT that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I think it's time to start thinking snowy. I'm a little happy b/c I told several of my classmates earlier in the week I think this ends up being an event in which we flip to snow. I kinda ended up backing off a bit yesterday but the signals are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 lol GEFS Pretty much all members over like POU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: lol GEFS Pretty much all members over like POU Out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I won't flood at my portion of my neighborhood. But Seaport probably will again. And multiple tide cycles? Plus throw in the damaging wet snow. I’ll have to break out the rowboat early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: lol GEFS Pretty much all members over like POU Spread is definitely north. But it's the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The Farhvergnugen model basically brings the Atlantic onto the coast. Yikes. Tried to PM you but I think your box is full. Myself and 8 others are flying BOS -> DEN on Southwest at 6 PM Friday. Any idea on what the chances are that we make it out (I'm assuming not great) and if they issue a fee waiver, better to change to Thursday night or Saturday morning? Haven't been able to follow this at all really as work has been crazy, but looks like quite the system per a quick skim over the most recent guidance. Someone's going to get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Well I'm not sure if I added any value to the forecasts I did tonight on-air. Extremely tough to convey the uncertainty and sound like you know what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Well I'm not sure if I added any value to the forecasts I did tonight on-air. Extremely tough to convey the uncertainty and sound like you know what you're talking about. Tough call right now. Could be nothing, could be flooding rain, could be 2 feet of snow... pick a model and you can go with any of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Methinks this ends up a big tempest of liquid variety here on the coast. GFS and GEFS so amped is a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Methinks this ends up a big tempest of liquid variety here on the coast. GFS and GEFS so amped is a red flag. Certainly could be should this be more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Given the rapid intensification of the system, blossoming dynamics, and extensive rising motion the idea of dynamic cooling...and strong dynamic cooling is a very real possibility and likely a reality. I know it's a completely different season and probably a different evolution but a part of this reminds me of the October snowstorm...some models were really hitting on the dynamical cooling aspect of things and I think the GFS may have been one of the warmest with things. The next questions becomes where does the best lift occur but I have to think that is somewhere in southern New England...maybe as far north as the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Decent probs from Pope to Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 BTV WRF Goes bananas 4"+ qpf stalled and still going at 1am sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 18 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Well I'm not sure if I added any value to the forecasts I did tonight on-air. Extremely tough to convey the uncertainty and sound like you know what you're talking about. You did great as usual... I still think the valley is alot of rain but some of those runs today were fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Decent probs from Pope to Ray. And I have friends coming up from LI Friday to go snowboarding this weekend in Conway. I already asked them this morning to see if they can leave Thurs pm due to the storm. I’m not sure they’ll make it up; and if they do I’m not sure we’ll be able to make the 1.25 hr drive to Conway on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Decent probs from Pope to Ray. That QPF axis signature looks like Ray's avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Given the rapid intensification of the system, blossoming dynamics, and extensive rising motion the idea of dynamic cooling...and strong dynamic cooling is a very real possibility and likely a reality. I know it's a completely different season and probably a different evolution but a part of this reminds me of the October snowstorm...some models were really hitting on the dynamical cooling aspect of things and I think the GFS may have been one of the warmest with things. The next questions becomes where does the best lift occur but I have to think that is somewhere in southern New England...maybe as far north as the Pike Yea, it has that borderline airmass feel where dynamics have to outweigh the warmth. We here at SWC have told our viewers to check in tomorrow night for finer details but r/s line who gets what may not happen until we nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: We need to start rooting for the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Come on Euro, Come on and lets be done with this, so you messed up, we forgive you. No, its ok. You will start the party for real. Spoke w Euro, he's coming on board at 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 What does the coastal flooding situation look like for a storm like this? You guys have any good analogs? Boston looks like ground zero from a coastal flooding standpoint imo. Looks like strong east wind with enormous fetch would just pile water up into Boston Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 25 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Well I'm not sure if I added any value to the forecasts I did tonight on-air. Extremely tough to convey the uncertainty and sound like you know what you're talking about. I have no idea how you go on air and try to tell people about this one. Throw up 3 different possibilities? Shrug and look at the camera for 5 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: That stall is obviously quite concerning on the GFS. That's an awful look for coastal flooding in Boston. not to carp on anyone. People will obviously focus on snowfall potential, inland, from these sort of things, but the biggest threat assessment is in the CF and has been all along. I would even think your southern zones close to the western end of LI Sound are not out of the woods ... I'm not fully convinced they get cut a break by a temporary west flow such as the N biased GFS. IF you guys get consecutive tide cycles like .. my god with this. Lunar spring tide is scheduled in there (I think?) ... or close enough that it's not helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 25 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Well I'm not sure if I added any value to the forecasts I did tonight on-air. Extremely tough to convey the uncertainty and sound like you know what you're talking about. Certainly better than last night when you talked all rain. My office couldn’t believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Decent probs from Pope to Ray. I'm still in Vatican City for the next week before the move to Boscawen. Isn't the GFS usually a little low in these types of storms while the Nam is high? And is it still precipitating after this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I have an inflatable kayak if anyone thinks they might need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: not to carp on anyone. People will obviously focus on snowfall potential, inland, from these sort of things, but the biggest threat assessment is in the CF and has been all along. I would even think your southern zones close to the western end of LI Sound are not out of the woods ... I'm not fully convinced they get cut a break by a temporary west flow such as the N biased GFS. IF you guys get consecutive tide cycles like .. my god with this. Lunar spring tide is scheduled in there (I think?) ... or close enough that it's not helping FRI is the highest for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly better than last night when you talked all rain. My office couldn’t believe it It’s a good thing your clients have you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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