dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: FYP Anyone want to compare this event to any other one in terms of model chaos? This whole winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Correcting on the speed of the sw. Maybe correcting towards the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We wet. 2". Top snow I could find was in C MA over by ORH/CEF That's what we like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The 12z euro was 1003 mb at hr 48; the EPS mean was 1004 mb at hr 48. And 986 versus 990 respectively at hr 72. Pretty telling that the op was too progressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone want to compare this event to any other one in terms of model chaos? In terms of GEFS, the SLP spread is quite high. Like top end of m-climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Maybe correcting towards the GFS? It's a bit slower and deeper then it thru 06z Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Geez... watching the NAM. Winter storm warnings in Nebraska with first low. Flat untapped moisture everywhere east of St Louis, a 3-hour line of 1.5" in Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Whineminster said: That's what we like Get yourself all worked up for 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: It's a bit slower and deeper then it thru 06z Thurs That northern stream s/w is jacked this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: FYP Anyone want to compare this event to any other one in terms of model chaos? This doesn't really stand out as particularly brutal in that respect. I think of March '13, ML magic '15, Jan 27, '11, maybe Boxing Day as being benchmarks for model chaos. I'm sure there are plenty of others I'm forgetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 If only we had some cold air. Lotta those ensembles for the Euro have nice low positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: That northern stream s/w is jacked this run. Yeah, it's pretty cool to compare to the GFS. It's has higher heights just ahead of it over the GL compared to the GFS but lower heights over New England than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM is going to be a monster hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, it's pretty cool to compare to the GFS. It's has higher heights just ahead of it over the GL compared to the GFS but lower heights over New England than the GFS. Yeah, The northern stream s/w out ahead over Maine is a little stronger this run and has compressed the heights, This run looks to be about 3 hr slower then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, friedmators said: If only we had some cold air. Lotta those ensembles for the Euro have nice low positions. What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Yeah, The northern stream s/w out ahead over Maine is a little stronger this run and has compressed the heights, This run looks to be about 3 hr slower then 12z. Maybe this will be the compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: What you're very snarky today lol.....and its still going to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, friedmators said: If only we had some cold air. Lotta those ensembles for the Euro have nice low positions. EPS gives me a 50% chance of over 3" , that is pretty big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 18z Thurs, 994 mb low just SE of CHI-town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Maybe this will be the compromise. Heights are getting pumped up out ahead of the primary near the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: EPS gives me a 50% chance of over 3" , that is pretty big I guess just seeing a deep low near the BM and the freezing line past the Poconos got to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z Thurs, 994 mb low just SE of CHI-town Pretty similar to 12z NAm run on SLP but heights are a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, friedmators said: I guess just seeing a deep low near the BM and the freezing line past the Poconos got to me. lots and lots of things to look at besides surface temps, do your self a favor and go back and just read oRH wxmans posts in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Primary is stronger and a bit east vs 12z. I don’t think that’s helping our cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Heights are getting pumped up out ahead of the primary near the lakes. Yeah, it should make a northward correction from the 12z run based on that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Primary is stronger and a bit east vs 12z. I don’t think that’s helping our cause I think you mean west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z was almost a whiff for a lot of SNE...this will def be north of that. I think it looks pretty good at 54h...prob gonna end up being a heavy rain to heavy snow type deal this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 That's a lot of Northern stream energy sliding down the back side of the trough rounding the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: you're very snarky today lol.....and its still going to rain Yes because if this hits it could be rain to feet of snow. The chances of this being mostly rain are minimal. The minute this CCB pumps, it's cold enough aloft to paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Much deeper closed 5H on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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