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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Shocking, 18z GFS with much deeper system, and similar track as 12z but much colder and snowier with a good run for the queens.

Sub 980 we’re in business in NNE and much of CNE. Get it sub 970 and maybe we can get most of SNE into the snow.

gfs was not bad north of the pike trending better

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Storm looking better for CNE but what are you all seeing that Im missing for the big snow totals out towards Worcester.  Lots of mid to upper 30's through the storm.  Is it the dynamics that will bring down the cold air down?  Here is the clown map for the GFS.  Seems to keep the big totals further NW.

gfs.jpg

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Storm looking better for CNE but what are you all seeing that Im missing for the big snow totals out towards Worcester.  Lots of mid to upper 30's through the storm.  Is it the dynamics that will bring down the cold air down?  Here is the clown map for the GFS.  Seems to keep the big totals further NW.

gfs.jpg

Just above the BL is COLD. Dynamic cooling is the name of the game with this.

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21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

MPM will undoubtedly bemoan the GFS' qpf distribution.  1" LE for him 3" for you.   :P

I doubt it.  I’m just hoping to find a way back to pwm.  OT, they’re leaving empty seats on my plane so we won’t have to stop for refueling.  Never heard that one before.....maybe they should get us a bigger plane.

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17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Shocking, 18z GFS with much deeper system, and similar track as 12z but much colder and snowier with a good run for the queens.

Sub 980 we’re in business in NNE and much of CNE. Get it sub 970 and maybe we can get most of SNE into the snow.

Some of the EPS members have sub 970, and one as low as 958.

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haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

This post is #thefappening.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

Tip, with that said, will "inland" feel the winds? or just a coast thing? Inland I'm speaking 35-60 miles away

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

I would agree john.   

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Hello All-

Models showing a more northerly jog. Bad timing as I’m flying out of Boston Thursday night for travel. Should I be concerned about a cancellation and try to move this flight or do you think I will still be ok Thursday night? Thanks 

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

Best. Post. Ever.

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