Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You can see the changes from 36 hours ago. Look at both how much farther north (as Will said) the shortwaves come and just how much more consolidated they are (vs. nearly separate 36 hours ago). your worst nightmare run right there, can we 3 feet SR please, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Anyone feeling any more confident on any solution? Lol the definitive posts here and their I told you sos. It is a clusterf right now. The weenies on the bus go round and round. GFS is plausible, NAM is plausible, ICON is plausible, Euro is plausible. Regarding this GFS run, Brian Jeff, Gene, Whites getting a monster storm. Pf Too. Rain in coastal Maine? Sorry....on phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Rain in coastal Maine? Sorry....on phone. The rain in Maine falls mainly on the plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I don't know how anyone can pick out any one model run out and say this is the most likely scenario, Right now, It is still being sorted out, But you get a real clean stronger/earlier phase, And these northern solutions can happen, There are going to be some that get hosed by the eventual outcome, No getting out of it. It's easy to have an opinion...I did, and do. It's easy. Whether the opinion is wrong or right is TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: you guys make up a lot of sh it, go back to sleep Lol yeah ok...enjoy your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: The fuse got lit at 12z with a stronger Northern s/w Expected in a La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: The rain in Maine falls mainly on the plain I mean it's the GFS so of course it says rain, but it's close enough to blue bomb to keep a close eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's easy to have an opinion...I did, and do. It's easy. Whether the opinion is wrong or right is TBD. We all have them, Wanting more of a phase with the northern stream s/w is a careful what you wish for scenario, Of course if you got a middle ground scenario everyone wins, But you already saw what happen when the phase misses and when you get something sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Interesting the FV3/NGGPS has been consistently north, with little run to run variability in the last 24-48 hours. It may be wrong, but at least it'll be consistently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Expected in a La Nina? Don't know if its expected, But with a block slowing things down, You have the time for it to develop to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: We all have them, Wanting more of a phase with the northern stream s/w is a careful what you wish for scenario, Of course if you got a middle ground scenario everyone wins, But you already saw what happen when the phase misses and when you get something sooner. Yea, this idea can be wrong...certainly. Been wrong before and will be again. That's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Ray is sticking to his guns and i cant blame him given the look and modeling, no point in jumping ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 It shouldn't be a warm rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, this idea can be wrong...certainly. Been wrong before and will be again. That's life. Its an ongoing learning experience for all of us, None of these systems end up in the end looking like one previous to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I cannot imagine what it is like trying to earn a living doing this stuff with guidance like this. Pick a model...pick a run...spin the wheel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GFS is fading -NAO block SE when it's really a bias of first low pressure moving too far East. Just offshore the east coast is like a sink for low pressure and 500mb cutoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Now stepping to the plate Crazy uncle ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ray is sticking to his guns and i cant blame him given the look and modeling, no point in jumping ship I don't think with this much volatility anyone should jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Now stepping to the plate Crazy uncle ukie Maybe it tics a few north, If not and the Euro still is a little flat, I still you need to wait until 12z Tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 One thing about the GFS that was giving me pause was VBG launched a balloon right into the southern shortwave, and observations were like 10 dm higher than modeled. Not a good sign for the GFS run. Except, NCEP purged all heights from that VBG run for being too high. Something must've failed on the sonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 navgem is actually next. And it is still over bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the GEM, as awful a model as it is, has the best idea right now. I'll give you a lot of credit if it works as you've been on this regardless of the model guidance you have the vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Now stepping to the plate Crazy uncle ukie Looks like the ggem to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'll give you a lot of credit if it works as you've been on this regardless of the model guidance you have the vision. and we know It’s all about the visions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Kind of tough telling what the Ukie looks like as its in between panels but it looks like its close to the same as 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Kind of tough telling what the Ukie looks like as its in between panels but it looks like its close to the same as 0z Hows That for elongated low pressure at 12z friday. 976-980 pressure from 39/70to 38/62 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hows That for elongated low pressure at 12z friday. 976-980 pressure from 40/70to 40/62 lmao Looks like the 0z EPS. Which of course is elongated because it is an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hows That for elongated low pressure at 12z friday. 976-980 pressure from 39/70to 38/62 lmao 0z had a wound up bomb, Looked like weak sauce coming off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hows That for elongated low pressure at 12z friday. 976-980 pressure from 39/70to 38/62 lmao And the primary hands off to the secondary over 1000 miles in 12 hours, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Looks like the GEFS are north too. Maybe will eek out a dandy day in SNE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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