JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 500mb only. Have not looked at SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Right and that ICON is doing precisely the same thing... it's showing more phasing - this whole thing is becoming a tutorial exercise in that one specific factor alone - wow... It may also be a warm bomb ... that's never been removed from this .. but hopefully everyone is fully cognizant and thinking about that - huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right and that ICON is doing precisely the same thing... it's showing more phasing - this whole thing is becoming a tutorial exercise in that one specific factor alone - wow... It may also be warm bomb ... that's never been removed from this .. but hopefully everyone is fully cognizant and thinking about that - huh Yeah the northern stream s/w is very critical to the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right and that ICON is doing precisely the same thing... it's showing more phasing - this whole thing is becoming a tutorial exercise in that one specific factor alone - wow... It may also be warm bomb ... that's never been removed from this .. but hopefully everyone is fully cognizant and thinking about that - huh IF we get a system as tucked nto the coastline as the ICON, then we're def getting a lot of rain. That solution has been the extreme fringe of guidance though considering a lot of other guidance is struglging to get this N of the benchmark...but yeah, if that were to happen, we're talking a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Save a horse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: IF we get a system as tucked nto the coastline as the ICON, then we're def getting a lot of rain. That solution has been the extreme fringe of guidance though considering a lot of other guidance is struglging to get this N of the benchmark...but yeah, if that were to happen, we're talking a lot of rain. I like seeing it that amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I kinda like the GFS so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GFS isn't hugely different from 06z through 48 hours. If anything maybe north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just gimme a bomb; ill go to the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 This 12z GFS run should be similar or slightly better then the 06z run it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS isn't hugely different from 06z through 48 hours. If anything maybe north? A tic or two, Also warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: IF we get a system as tucked nto the coastline as the ICON, then we're def getting a lot of rain. That solution has been the extreme fringe of guidance though considering a lot of other guidance is struglging to get this N of the benchmark...but yeah, if that were to happen, we're talking a lot of rain. Since I've been looking at that model I've noticed a northern bias. Not saying its always there but seems to have some amplified solutions in then day 2 to 5 range. There was less northern stream interaction this run but the shortwave was more compact and a bit farther north with less energy flying ahead of itso it ends up pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS isn't hugely different from 06z through 48 hours. If anything maybe north? Looking at 63 now. Quite a bit more phased. Warmth is still a concern IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This 12z GFS run should be similar or slightly better then the 06z run it seems. Surprise meter-0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Southern stream doesn't look to be shooting out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: IF we get a system as tucked nto the coastline as the ICON, then we're def getting a lot of rain. That solution has been the extreme fringe of guidance though considering a lot of other guidance is struglging to get this N of the benchmark...but yeah, if that were to happen, we're talking a lot of rain. Plus ...at least from my perspective I have less on-going experience with this particular model. I don't know if has any BL biases... say, like the GFS. Or ...how does i handle dynamic hole punching... It does seem that it's puking rain there like a typhoid Marry through a synoptic appeal that's not exactly balmy at 850 and given the usual suspects in that sort of synoptic evolution ... a sounding that isn't exactly warm in general. I dunno - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z guidance has trended a lot warmer so far. Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Looking at 63 now. Quite a bit more phased. Warmth is still a concern IMO. I agree...I'd be more worried about precip type than precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Tucky-tucky on GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Tucky-tucky on GFS? Nice rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 988 mb right over Ginx..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Tucky-tucky on GFS? Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Wow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Kancamangus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 PF will love that. Not sure about that with the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 That primary holding on so long is probably gonna push a lot of warm air in southern SNE, regardless of how this bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 A driving rainstom for all on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 LOL. No snow for anyone on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: PF will love that. Not sure about that with the block. Yeah I'd think intuitively that's a bit aggressive. But I prefer that look to the unphased shunt for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: A driving rainstom for all on the gfs. Nah, PF does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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