TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: If the NAM was showing a bomb and a foot plus for everyone, then the group would love it and be praising it right now. But because it shows nothing, it blows. In all seriousness, have to think this thing struggles to gain enough latitude to get us in the goods. Exactly. People can’t have it both ways. You can’t just take the favorable aspects of the run and then toss what you don’t like. It may have looked okay early, but the end result matters at this point, we are like 2 days out. Kind of looks like the euro from last night, which definitey isn’t what you want to see. I’d be leaning euro right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Had 8 inches in four hours two weeks ago....doesn't get much more impressive than that. Not to mention the strongest Nor'easter in history in January. neither of which really plugged enough into the dystopian addiction circuits proficiently enough - just my opinion. They were entertaining systems 'as they were occurred', but the models did too much disservice in that regard, doing anything imaginable in the run-up to to distract from the purity of the dystopian sort of high/rush people want from this hobby and/or profession. I bet you dimes to donuts ... 90 someodd % of all Met folk could care less about the drudgery of Lab measurements, the latest Satellite diode tech talks, and/or the Navier Stokes Equation in lieu of experiencing the drama of the weather or seeing snow, or funnel clouds...etc. As a side, you know...it really seems as though that 'drama' has sort of evolved to be "transferred" to the modeling periods prior to storms in this modern era. People hunger for the cinema of the next run - almost more than the storm its self, I wonder. Not all ... just seemin' that way Anyway, winter went away in February. Spring has sprung ... these storms are spring like cold systems ...with ptype and dynamic reliance... We are 50 to 60 F in MOS at most sites in SNE the next couple days prior to this thing... It's an early spring this year, much to the chagrin of most, that has the upshot of a -NAO embedded in it.. So, having nothing else ...of course this was latched on - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: He's not wrong. Odds favor a dull solution for most of us IMO. That said, these systems can become high end if a lot of things go right. We'll see what happens. Sure, but I'm not seeing the "hype" in here that he's alluding to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Shouldn't you have a red tag? You have to provide proof to get it. Some folks might prefer to remain more anonymous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Exactly. People can’t have it both ways. You can’t just take the favorable aspects of the run and then toss what you don’t like. It may have looked okay early, but the end result matters at this point, we are like 2 days out. Kind of looks like the euro from last night, which definitey isn’t what you want to see. I’d be leaning euro right now Isn't there something about the Euro and the NAM showing the same thing.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman21 said: You have to provide proof to get it. Some folks might prefer to remain more anonymous. I secretly suspect he's a paper salesman at Dunder Mifflin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: If the NAM was showing a bomb and a foot plus for everyone, then the group would love it and be praising it right now. But because it shows nothing, it blows. In all seriousness, have to think this thing struggles to gain enough latitude to get us in the goods. I agree to an extent with this assessment but we have also seen systems that undergo explosive cyclogenesis build heights ahead of it allowing for a more poleward trajectory. I'm not saying this is the case here but it can occur under the right circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Isn't there something about the Euro and the NAM showing the same thing.......... EE rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Isn't there something about the Euro and the NAM showing the same thing.......... All I know is the NAM taking a step towards the euro makes me believe the euro is probably more right than wrong. You can tell stakes are high in here. When the NAM shows a huge hit, people think it has the right idea. When it sucks, it’s back to “being the NAM” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Anyone have high confidence in the gfs Gefs will still be more important is gfs handling n stream better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Okay ...I've seen it.. the NAM. Looks pretty clear to me that this run has less phasing - boom. Done deal. It's end result is some 6 DAM shallower of height falls, and about 5 mb higher surface reflection... The actual position of the low has less to do with it ..although yeah, may 50 miles less latitude at closest pass - which would not matter if the previous scenario were held. Anyway, more phase...stronger system. Less phase, we get this.. What it looks like to me anywho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Stating the obvious, You could say that when any model goes from a big hit to a whiff, Its not just with the Nam, Been plenty of GFS sucks with EC cyclogenensis and its not the same Euro since the upgrade when it has a solution that's not favorable, Its just the nature of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Okay ...I've seen it.. the NAM. Looks pretty clear to me that this run has less phasing - boom. Done deal. It's end result is some 6 DAM shallower of height falls, and about 15 mb lower surface reflection... The actual position of the low has less to do with it ..although yeah, may 50 miles less latitude at closest pass - which would not matter if the previous scenario were held. Anyway, more phase...stronger system. Less phase, we get this.. What it looks like to me anywho Cut and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ji said: after seeing the NAM....Garrett county, Maryland LOL You know you're old when you're excited seeing Ji post in your forum. Half the people in here probably don't know who Ji is, amiright Fella ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: If the NAM was showing a bomb and a foot plus for everyone, then the group would love it and be praising it right now. But because it shows nothing, it blows. In all seriousness, have to think this thing struggles to gain enough latitude to get us in the goods. How about the fact that it went from nothing, to a blizzard, to nothing? So, yea...if it salvaged some modicum of continuity, it would hold more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 FWIW, I think the chance of a total whiff is pretty low (but not ruled out)...but there's plenty of room for mundane hits where it's a sloppy advisory or low end warning event in the hills and nuisance slush lower down or no snow at all. But we've seen enough monster hits here and there on guidance including ensembles to prevent us from ignoring the higher end potential. I don't think it amounts to hype unless one is actually predicting 2-3 feet of tree-snapping snow with Dec '92-ish coastal flooding at this point...pointing out higher end solutions is fine as long as they are still within the envelope of possibilities, which at this point they are. Of course, they will get more discussion than a solution that shows low impact...because, frankly, the former is more interesting to a bunch of weather enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Stating the obvious, You could say that when any model goes from a big hit to a whiff, Its not just with the Nam, Been plenty of GFS sucks with EC cyclogenensis and its not the same Euro since the upgrade when it has a solution that's not favorable, Its just the nature of the board. If the 12z globals blow, I agree it's time to reevaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If the 12z globals blow, I agree it's time to reevaluate. I'd like to see ensemble guidance tighten up a bit. The spread was huge at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Cut and dry. in terms of 'possible' corrections ... I am noticing something. The N stream component wave mechanics that are being inconsistently handled are still over the Pacific ocean. That doesn't really come into the denser/more physical initialization grid ..or start to, until 18z and particularly 00z tonight. It then rockets over the Can/U.S. boarder up there and starts cutting in more prodigiously into the backside in the 00z/06z versions ... (save the Euro, which seems to have opted to just emply it's 4-d normalization routine and negate it all together...) but is weaker in this run so far.. Not sure if this 'might' have some sampling/shadowing going on with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Okay ...I've seen it.. the NAM. Looks pretty clear to me that this run has less phasing - boom. Done deal. It's end result is some 6 DAM shallower of height falls, and about 5 mb higher surface reflection... The actual position of the low has less to do with it ..although yeah, may 50 miles less latitude at closest pass - which would not matter if the previous scenario were held. Anyway, more phase...stronger system. Less phase, we get this.. What it looks like to me anywho Tip, I guess I have some learning to do.. I thought this shows more phasing, not less; the energy closes off two frame later at 12z, not 6z ? : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z ICON looking less amplified too FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Tip, I guess I have some learning to do.. I thought this shows more phasing, not less: Look at the heights in N MN...see how at 06z they are further south dipping into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Mark Rosenthal looked a lot younger 25 years ago. Then again who didn’t? Anyone under the age of 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z ICON looking less amplified too FWIW. Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: You know you're old when you're excited seeing Ji post in your forum. Half the people in here probably don't know who Ji is, amiright Fella ?? So true! He used to name poster of the year before subforums. I won about 15 years ago back (called me the old man from Boston...lol) when we weren’t all mobile and I could articulate thoughts along with my inherent weenieism. Ji is an all timer! We lose stuff dividing regions sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z ICON looking less amplified too FWIW. 978 spinning over LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Look at the heights in N MN...see how at 06z they are further south dipping into the trough. Thanks Wil.. I had been looking at the vorticity rather than the heights... Yes, I see that.. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Tip, I guess I have some learning to do.. I thought this shows more phasing, not less: A couple things with that... You're looking at a single interval - the story with phasing is a process in motion. The phasing is really 60 to 72 --> 84 hours... The other aspect is that I did not look at the NAM 12 KM ... I was looking at the 32 if that matters. But, even in your product version, you can see more heights declination behind the s-stream impulse trying to curve into the backside on the prior run. The red colors are less important really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 We German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: 978 spinning over LI? 500mb only. Have not looked at SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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