powderfreak Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Quite the toaster bath storm as modeled...jeez. That means good things for most of the forum though haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: For what it is worth here is the 12Z 2/25 Euro "clown" map for potential snow totals for the late week storm. This is the MAP I would go with....the other one is killed by 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Quite a cluster of members well to the NW of the mean as expected over MA/CT, Looks like we are losing the ones that were well SE Yeah, many members just northwest of mean. And there are some intense 960s-970s huggers in there. All members that are >990mb are way southeast and probably skewing the mean. This was true on previous runs as well. Though as you mentioned, our shortwave hasn't been sampled yet. We still could be in for some big guidance swings in the days ahead once this energy is onstage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 The euro ensembles are out of this world. North and amped. 3.0" QPF at BOS. 2" for majority of SNE. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s a lot of precip for a mean..no? Seems like some dryslot issues for us on the OP, especially south of us (noticed some panels with almost no precip. along the shoreline). Low is tucked too close I think. If it goes a bit farther south we'll have better rates and thus better dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: The euro ensembles are out of this world. North and amped. 3.0" QPF at BOS. 2" for majority of SNE. Impressive. EPS is definitely up there. Way up in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just from a dynamics standpoint, It looks to do a top down cool down quite rapidly as the the heavier rates take hold over areas that start out really marginal. 925 temps go from 6C to 0C between hr 117 and hr 120 in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Right now I'm thinking this is an elevated bomb for the interior. Especially NNE. Coastal effects are going to be frightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: 925 temps go from 6C to 0C between hr 117 and hr 120 in my hood. Yup, That would flip a few verbatim over pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I don’t think you need to be elevated if the op is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Right now I'm thinking this is an elevated bomb for the interior. Especially NNE. Coastal effects are going to be frightening. Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t think you need to be elevated if the op is right. I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 One of you fine gentleman post the 12z, 18z, and 00z member output? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 925 temps go from 6C to 0C between hr 117 and hr 120 in my hood. And that’s your flip-12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think you need to be elevated if the op is right. Yeah, That's going to get snow to the coast fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Disagree. I meant favored for jackpot but this could easily trend to be historic for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I meant favored for jackpot but this could easily trend to be historic for us. It’s close to that now. Just a ton of snow post 12z Friday from the euro family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Starts Thursday night rain or snow? And ends Saturday? Nope. Shunts. We sniff cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I meant favored for jackpot but this could easily trend to be historic for us. Oh, ok. I like n ORH co, SW NH and Berks. Pike north is in bussiness...south of there may need elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 What's with that tongue of warmer 925 temps at hr 123 going up western CT, MA and VT? https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018022512/massachusetts/temperature-925mb/20180302-1500z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Rain is more likely than shunt imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Beyond the dynamically driven cooling, I will be surprised if the modeling doesn't continue tickling cooler as we get closer in. That seems to be a common theme this winter. But man, what a bomb on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Beyond the dynamically driven cooling, I will be surprised if the modeling doesn't continue tickling cooler as we get closer in. That seems to be a common theme this winter. But man, what a bomb on the Euro. Totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: How long would it be rain on that run? Not long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is the MAP I would go with....the other one is killed by 2m temps. Welcome back. Short break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: What's with that tongue of warmer 925 temps at hr 123 going up western CT, MA and VT? https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018022512/massachusetts/temperature-925mb/20180302-1500z.html Maybe downsloping along the western slopes of ther Berks/Litchfield Hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One of you fine gentleman post the 12z, 18z, and 00z member output? Thanks in advance. To clarify, I meant the individual members output, to see the clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I'm starting to focus more on the Ops tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: To clarify, I meant the individual members output, to see the clustering. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps_global_cyclones.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Why? Why am I not sold on this coming up as far as CNE? I just look at the model trends. Last night's 0Z Euro went south but then at 12Z came back north. The 06Z GFS got the good stuff to about me but then the 12Z went south again. So until I see a couple of runs on these models hold steadfast in getting the QPF to C/NNE I am not totally invested. Looks good for a big storm of some kind down there but much odds decrease as you head up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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