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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, dryslot said:

Quite a cluster of members well to the NW of the mean as expected over MA/CT, Looks like we are losing the ones that were well SE

Yeah, many members just northwest of mean. And there are some intense 960s-970s huggers in there.

All members that are >990mb are way southeast and probably skewing the mean. This was true on previous runs as well. 

Though as you mentioned, our shortwave hasn't been sampled yet. We still could be in for some big guidance swings in the days ahead once this energy is onstage.

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a lot of precip for a mean..no?

Seems like some dryslot issues for us on the OP, especially south of us (noticed some panels with almost no precip. along the shoreline). Low is tucked too close I think. If it goes a bit farther south we'll have better rates and thus better dynamic cooling.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Why?

Why am I not sold on this coming up as far as CNE?  I just look at the model trends.  Last night's 0Z Euro went south but then at 12Z came back north.  The 06Z GFS got the good stuff to about me but then the 12Z went south again.  So until I see a couple of runs on these models hold steadfast in getting the QPF to C/NNE I am not totally invested.  Looks good for a big storm of some kind down there but much odds decrease as you head up my way.

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