Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is coming around more...still not gonna be epic, but a lot better. There's Jays convective feedback . Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Lol...I love these GFS soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: There's Jays convective feedback . Tossed Remember when the bomb hit earlier this year all the models incorrectly focused on the eastern convection. Looks familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 lol I'll take the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: More fumbles in the red zone wth cmc vs any other model. More swing and misses then Dave Kingman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Somehow the southern vort outruns the northern by a lot on the GEM despite the southern dragging its heels initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Remember when the bomb hit earlier this year all the models incorrectly focused on the eastern convection. Looks familiar My limited knowledge but decades of weenie says this is where that ots low should be and phasing on that depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: More swing and misses then Dave Kingman. And Willy Mo Pena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: My limited knowledge but decades of weenie says this is where that ots low should be and phasing on that depiction Nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: And Willy Mo Pena But when he caught one, Wow........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: My limited knowledge but decades of weenie says this is where that ots low should be and phasing on that depiction It does look all inverted trof, which we know is typically the outlier than the norm (final outcome-wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Id like to see the UKIE phase faster tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nice post. Thanks, like Chris said INVT, also my bad drawing that L.P. probably would be more NE of the deepening ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Id like to see the UKIE phase faster tonite I wouldn't be surprised they way most guidance has gone so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 960smb low on GFS. Very unlikely it moves out to sea because of how strong is Atlantic ridge. More likely to spin out right on the coast, probably bottoming in the 960s, and Lots of snow inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 At 29 pages at 1130 When i wake at 8am 32 pages or less....euro whiffed worse 33-36 pages euro was closer 37+ (euro bombs us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GEFS time soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Ukie is stronger 969mb(but still waaaaay se of bench mark fri eve (0z sat) I.e 37N/67.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 A handful of gefs members treat CT nicely wrt snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The spread on the GEFS is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I was on my mobile for GFS play by play. Looks like a pile of BS at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Most of the spread on GEFS is still north but there are a few more S members now vs 18z. Not totally surprising since the OP did come north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Interesting that the GEFS clustering at this timepoint is significantly worse compared to multiple earlier runs (e.g., yesterday's 18z, 12z; today's 6z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Most of the spread on GEFS is still north but there are a few more S members now vs 18z. Not totally surprising since the OP did come north some. Immediately tossed in the trash when I saw dual centers like that at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, wxsniss said: Interesting that the GEFS clustering at this timepoint is significantly worse compared to multiple earlier runs (e.g., yesterday's 18z, 12z; today's 6z) I mean, it's not better. It might be worse. But overall spread increased. There's no clear cluster. I think it speaks to volatility in runs heading forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Interesting that the GEFS clustering at this timepoint is significantly worse compared to multiple earlier runs (e.g., yesterday's 18z, 12z; today's 6z) The ggem ensemble spaghetti plot looks less coherent now vs 12z as well. Not a lot of answers tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 BTV WRF (amp'd)At 0z last 3hr from 9z to 12z (stalls low about 50 miles south of MVY and absolutely destroys SE mass and S Shore w over 1" in 3 hrs This model is not that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 It's amazing how bad operational models really are. The Euro is the only one we treat with validity. The GFS seems like it's become worse. After that, there's really nothing at this range. GEM and UKMET haven't nailed a storm in as long as I can remember. The only assistance Euro/GFS gets is due to shorter lead time. When you can break out models like RGEM. Once NAM gets in its' wheelhouse, it's done better than a lot of the globals IMO. The only real guidance we have are ensembles. Which I guess makes sense considering everything. But even still, EPS is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I feel like we have gotten zero clarity tonight, in fact, the spread has actually increased. Trends have been a wash so far... running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I feel like we have gotten zero clarity tonight, in fact, the spread has actually increased. Trends have been a wash so far... running out of time. A wash...no The trends are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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