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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The NAM shows you how you flip to snow with dynamics. Also you have a slight drain of cooler and drier air from Maine. That’s key too. If temps a few thousand feet up are cool enough, it’s isothermal blue bomb city....If the rates are good enough. 

And they say were not good for anything.

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I'm still pretty amazed at how there are definite mathematical biases to models at X range. For example, this is going to trend wetter/stronger, but if it showed max scenario now it wouldn't happen. It's timed perfect for the gradual ease every 6-12 hours into prime benchmark spot blizzard. Maybe they have problems wrapping moisture up, realizing that a circulation of water gravitates toward only a few specific areas and strength 

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5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I'm still pretty amazed at how there are definite mathematical biases to models at X range. For example, this is going to trend wetter/stronger, but if it showed max scenario now it wouldn't happen. It's timed perfect for the gradual ease every 6-12 hours into prime benchmark spot blizzard. Maybe they have problems wrapping moisture up, realizing that a circulation of water gravitates toward only a few specific areas and strength 

:huh:

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It has been first to sniff them out before, Not saying it is this time, But we will see going forward.

January 16 it was the first to bring the big blizzard north into SNE before any other model...and it was right.

 

Next run it’ll show the opposite of what it has now...but it may have the right idea with this depiction?  

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