dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like every chance has been discussed adnauseum lol. I think we all know what’s at stake. fwiw ignore the gfs soundings until further notice. The gfs seems to be weighting daytime solar heating or something, way too much. It’s been having like 6-8F T-Td spreads even when the model had the arc of Moisture overhead. It’s just not correct showing that. It makes no meteorological sense. I haven’t looked at 18z, ,but every run prior to that had it. Yeah...GFS has been trying to deliver hours and hours of +RA 06/02 METARs for days. Find your 950 Tw or something and run with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I feel like every chance has been discussed adnauseum lol. I think we all know what’s at stake. A lot of nervous energy out there in the areas with (as Will said) the highest ceiling but also real low floor. Great way to describe it in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Going to phase sooner this run. This ones gonna run the SLP up over SNE. It's more than a feeling (Boston reference). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yeah...GFS has been trying to deliver hours and hours of +RA 06/02 METARs for days. Find your 950 Tw or something and run with that. Right. That 950 Tw might work better for lower spots, but yeah the model temps are gonna fool many if they just rip and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Look at how much moisture the NAM has 54 to 57 hour. It's going to be a 40-50" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Slight changes in the upper MS valley on this run compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Slight changes in the upper MS valley on this run compared to 18z. Ya think..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Look at how much moisture the NAM has 54 to 57 hour. It's going to be a 40-50" snow Maybe 80”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM with a closed H7 low over Wisconsin... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Wisconsin is stealing our snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: But we’re talking if it bombs. If it’s pedestrian then sure-but I lose interest at that point. After working 20 hrs straight I took a nap, lol guess what I dreamed of? Your GD elephant lol. We were at Clarke's You kept saying it too. I woke up laughing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Maybe 80”? Look at the strengthening low west of Chicago moving NE, it's beautiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Maybe 80”? Got a blizz for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 You knew the Nam was going to come with one of these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: A lot of nervous energy out there in the areas with (as Will said) the highest ceiling but also real low floor. Great way to describe it in SNE. Stakes are high. Clock is ticking on the winter season. I would personally like to see places like far southeast ma get in on one of these. It has been a putrid season down there. hopefully everything breaks right and they can get a paste job there with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Which run? It is hardly being consistent The latest of course which global has been consistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Congrats Winter Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM is a nuke. I like the two closed H5 lows it has. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe 80”? Start with 40-50 and we can always adjust up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: The latest of course which global has been consistent? Hadn’t looked at Colonel Klink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM is a nuke. I like the two closed H5 lows it has. lol. One east of LI, One over the delmarva...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Sweet Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 What a 12z Friday scene NAM style! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Stakes are high. Clock is ticking on the winter season. I would personally like to see places like far southeast ma get in on one of these. It has been a putrid season down there. hopefully everything breaks right and they can get a paste job there with this one Looks like it happens on that NAM run. What a sharp northern cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nam is even good for the interior sections of NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 50 minutes ago, powderfreak said: True, I just think the more you get into the up and down terrain of the interior it might become more elevational in nature, especially if the low level flow starts messing with precipitation rates and small pockets of low level lift/sinking couplets. If heights are near 528 I doubt you have had heavy intense rates and rain up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nice easterly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I'd hit the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Close to 12" here from that northern stream s/w on thurs.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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