AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Looking deeper, No way the storm moves that far east with tropical Atlantic ridge, it's been ridiculous. This will be a bombing low on the coast, perhaps moving south but not out to sea. Big snow totals, a localized 40"+ somewhere between here and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This one will def have to bomb prettt nicely. October had a very cold lower mid-level to it. It was like -6 to -7 at 850 and even 925 was like -3 to -4. Really cold stuff. It was never going to rain long in that if it started as rain (and obviously for some it never did)...some TV mets not named Ryan got fooled pretty bad on that. But this one is gonna have to work a bit...and we obviously know that they can. You just need that really rapid deepening of the mid and upper levels which will really force the cooling aloft. It's not super warm to start...we got close to 540 thickness, it's just kind of mild in the lower 4000-5000 feet. But even NBC 30 didn’t have it turning to snow here until mid/late afternoon. So it surprised most everyone here in interior CT. Thsnks for the response and explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tension Or discussion of possibilities... hard to say on a weather forum . Blue Hills Blaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: There’s something happening here....what it is ain’t exactly clear.... Stop children, whats that sound, everyone look whats goin down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Looking deeper, No way the storm moves that far east with tropical Atlantic ridge, it's been ridiculous. This will be a bombing low on the coast, perhaps moving south. Monster snow totals, maybe localized 40"+ somewhere between here and DC Are you serious? You are calling for localized 3'+ between Bel Air and DC? Basically a highly anomolous BECS? Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But even NBC 30 didn’t have it turning to snow here until mid/late afternoon. So it surprised most everyone here in interior CT. Thsnks for the response and explanation! It came in pretty fast I recall. I remembering the thinking was that it would come in a little more gradually so a few hours of light rain or mix wouldn't have been surprising. But it came in like a wall down there. Up here it was more gradual, we had hours of light snow before it ramped up...but I remember the obs down there were a pretty fast ramp up which likely prevented rain at the start. It was a unique storm obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Stop children, whats that sound, everyone look whats goin down Paranoia strikes deep-into your heart it will creep-it starts when you’re always afraid m-step outta line the man comes and takes you away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Are you serious? You are calling for localized 3'+ between Bel Air and DC? Basically a highly anomolous BECS? Lol... Boston to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Looking deeper, No way the storm moves that far east with tropical Atlantic ridge, it's been ridiculous. This will be a bombing low on the coast, perhaps moving south but not out to sea. Big snow totals, maybe localized 40"+ somewhere between here and DC Good place to start, You can always go higher from there if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Boston to DC i was looking at your address. that is a bold call. are you the son of Roger Smith? It would be great if you were right, but I really doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It came in pretty fast I recall. I remembering the thinking was that it would come in a little more gradually so a few hours of light rain or mix wouldn't have been surprising. But it came in like a wall down there. Up here it was more gradual, we had hours of light snow before it ramped up...but I remember the obs down there were a pretty fast ramp up which likely prevented rain at the start. It was a unique storm obviously. Yeah that obs thread was fascinating... all the SW CT posters even not far from the water were ripping heavy wet snow with pics of flakes the size and mass of pinecones like almost immediately after it started. That's when you knew it was on when those posters started posting photos of tree branches bending to the ground after like a quick 1" in like 45 minutes of starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: i was looking at your address. that is a bold call. are you the son of Roger Smith? It would be great if you were right, but I really doubt it. Not happening james Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Folks are bad at sarcasm around here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The satellite pictures have matched what feels like outside and it's basically a tropical pattern to Chicago and far north as Canada for a long time. It's happening now even. I don't know how low can possibly go east of benchmark and it seems to be a good pattern for deepening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Much appreciated lol. Just bustn' 'em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tension In the battle of the potential haves and the have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that obs thread was fascinating... all the SW CT posters even not far from the water were ripping heavy wet snow with pics of flakes the size and mass of pinecones like almost immediately after it started. That's when you knew it was on when those posters started posting photos of trees bending after like a quick 1" in like 45 minutes of starting. After i noticed we started off as snow i knew it was going to be a longggg exciting night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just bustn' 'em Same here man. Just discussing the range of possibilities in the dead zone time. Fascinating system to track even if out of the game up here. Its highly entertaining. These are the toughest ones to forecast, IMO, when the thermals are so marginal. Its really fun in that regard. So many moving parts. Different than just your normal winter storm when everyone knows that its going to be a 20F snow outside of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: After i noticed we started off as snow i knew it was going to be a longggg exciting night Sort of how this one has started out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm actually fairly optimistic about this one. I'm also in a decent spot on the east slopes near the pike too...but even for areas like Kevin and maybe Ginxy I'd be cautiously optimistic. The thing to watch for is the phasing obviously, but also look out for subtle changes in the block and our big system coming ashore in the PAC NW behind this one too. This later phase trend is disheartening. I would feel better if we had an ICONIC solution. Hopefully once sampled we get back full circle ,no pun intended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Same here man. Just discussing the range of possibilities in the dead zone time. Fascinating system to track regardless of backyard impacts. These are the toughest ones to forecast, IMO, when the thermals are so marginal. Its really fun in that regard. So many moving parts. Different than just your normal winter storm when everyone knows that its going to be a 20F snow outside of the Cape. This sentence is used in every single storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that obs thread was fascinating... all the SW CT posters even not far from the water were ripping heavy wet snow with pics of flakes the size and mass of pinecones like almost immediately after it started. That's when you knew it was on when those posters started posting photos of tree branches bending to the ground after like a quick 1" in like 45 minutes of starting. My former boss won $200 mil in the Pball after that storm while the rest of CT away from the immediate CT shore was in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Same here man. Just discussing the range of possibilities in the dead zone time. Fascinating system to track even if we are out of the game up here. These are the toughest ones to forecast, IMO, when the thermals are so marginal. Its really fun in that regard. So many moving parts. Different than just your normal winter storm when everyone knows that its going to be a 20F snow outside of the Cape. There's a lot of anticipation with this one...you can feel it a bit. Prob because this is a high stakes storm. There is a very high ceiling on this one and a very low floor. But this is why we are on here...a lot of us anyway...for systems like this. Where the stakes are high and the uncertainty is high. But this is the fun time to bring out the forecasting tools...like all the factors we were discussing earlier today amidst the disappointing 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: This later phase trend is disheartening. I would feel better if we had an ICONIC solution. Hopefully once sampled we get back full circle ,no pun intended I think this 0z Nam run is going to give it a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This later phase trend is disheartening. I would feel better if we had an ICONIC solution. Hopefully once sampled we get back full circle ,no pun intended Which run? It is hardly being consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: This sentence is used in every single storm Tough crowd . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Or discussion of possibilities... hard to say on a weather forum . Blue Hills Blaster. I feel like every chance has been discussed adnauseum lol. I think we all know what’s at stake. fwiw ignore the gfs soundings until further notice. The gfs seems to be weighting daytime solar heating or something, way too much. It’s been having like 6-8F T-Td spreads even when the model had the arc of Moisture overhead. It’s just not correct showing that. It makes no meteorological sense. I haven’t looked at 18z, ,but every run prior to that had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think this 0z Nam run is going to give it a go. Gonna be a ripper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 We need Zeus to weigh in. That usually means party time NAM getting the northern stream going a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Gonna be a ripper. Going to phase sooner this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.