Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: I saw the opportunity to spoil and took it. Even Ryan was on board with a bridge jumper's delight in his forecast tonight. He mentioned heavy rain or snow and said they have no idea yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pretty big jump back to the NW on 18z GEFS, Must be some real amped up members in there. It's intriguing. It's still further south than we'd like. The positive thing I see? Mean LP is much further SE than a solid cluster of the members. It's not perfect but that's encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GEFS ens mean is over 1" for E coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: It's intriguing. It's still further south than we'd like. The positive thing I see? Mean LP is much further SE than a solid cluster of the members. It's not perfect but that's encouraging. If you look at it the 18z run compared to the 12z run, There are 2 members SW of the mean, The rest are all north or NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 18z GEFS with a few strong north members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 18 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Lol. i Have to talk to it ...kind of psych it up for the task and also pull it out where ever it is because I know my ex - wife wont do it. No. Words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GEFS with a few strong north members Congrats PF on some of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Congrats PF on some of those Congrats SNE on others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Congrats Bermuda at 12z, Looks like most of those south and east members went north or NW at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Congrats Bermuda at 12z, Looks like most of those south and east members went north or NW at 18z With 8 of those members south of 35 N Lat. and now none of them are even close to that at 18z, it's one reason I don't have much more faith in any of these ensembles than I do the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 There’s a few 3-4” QPF monster hits for SW ME/NH/NE MA in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: With 8 of those members south of 35 N Lat. and now none of them are even close to that at 18z, it's one reason I don't have much more faith in any of these ensembles than I do the op. I look at it like we may not see anymore south trends with none on the southern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: There’s a few 3-4” QPF monster hits for SW ME/NH/NE MA in there. I have no doub't we would snow, I just don't know how much qpf if any we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 For those that don’t have weatherbell...Bastardi saying what Tip was eluding to yesterday...thicknesses are low...and once the low center passes your longitude/gets east of you, it’s going to flip to snow very/Violently fast!! And it’s gonna snow hard. Although he thinks it keeps moving...no stall. Calling for 2-3 inches in NYC. 1-2 ft in Poconos and Catskills Into western New England, 6-12+ in most of SNE. Just thought I’d share that in the model lull right now. So we’ll see if he’s right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Non-event for CT. Bastardi is on crack. You can requote this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Couldn't resist. I'm standing pat for now. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/major-storm-likely-to-expose-rip-readers.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Non-event for CT. Bastardi is on crack. You can requote this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Couldn't resist. I'm standing pat for now. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/major-storm-likely-to-expose-rip-readers.html Boldly going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Couldn't resist. I'm standing pat for now. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/major-storm-likely-to-expose-rip-readers.html Should hit pretty good but thinking mainly rain here.. Hope I'm wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Non-event for CT. Bastardi is on crack. You can requote this. Ok lol...we’ll see if you are indeed correct...or he is??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ok lol...we’ll see if you are indeed correct...or he is??? I think bastardi is right for areas over 1500’. Anything lower then that is going to be a real challenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Been fairly busy today, but I think others have spelled out the scenario well. It’s not necessarily the block causing issues (although some guidance sunk it SW) but moreso the phasing or lack thereof. I could be wrong, but I’m still not on the suppression train at this time. All we need is Pete B too poo poo it, and it’s on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nice analysis, Legro laying it out.... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ***Significant Coastal Storm Possible Late in the Week*** The focus of the extended was mainly on potential for significant impacts from a coastal storm late in the week...with a weaker/lighter event Wed night. For starters Wed...developing return flow aloft will combine with approaching S/WV trof to produce a band of frontogenesis along the mid level warm front. While the bulk of the forcing for ascent looks to remain along the Nrn forecast zones...that does leave room for some accumulating snowfall across the mtns. That forcing will be mainly over The County...but 2 to 4 inches are possible over the Wrn ME mtns before the best lift drifts Ewd. That takes us to a more significant pair of S/WVs across the central CONUS. The Nly wave...arriving in the Pacific Northwest Tue...and the Sly wave currently dropping down the West Coast will begin to phase near or E of the MS River. Low pressure will develop and track NEwd...but developing ridging over Greenland will provide no escape N. Eventually secondary low pressure is forecast to develop S of Srn New England and track in an Ely direction out into the Atlantic. In a general sense this means a slower moving system with deep Ely flow ahead of it. Model guidance has had some run to run consistency issues...but generally within the envelope of ensemble guidance. To me it looks like the run to run changes are mostly related to the degree of phasing between S/WV trofs across the central CONUS. A weak or missed phase results in a weaker primary low and system that gets strung out and blocked S of the forecast area. A more complete phase leads to a stronger primary low...more ridging ahead of the system...and enough forcing for Nwd movement to counter- balance the developing Greenland block. The latter scenario would lead to a more impactful and more widespread precip event for the forecast area. That being said...26.12z GEFS guidance is forecasting a -3 to -4 sigma H8 u wind anomaly to develop over much of Srn and central New England by Fri morning. That type of deep Ely inflow is typically a good signal for precip in the area...as well as Ely upslope enhancement of precip in the White Mtns and Monadnocks. Additionally...26.12z ECMWF EPS probabilistic guidance has a 40 to 50 percent chance of 0.50 inches QPF in a 24 hour period ending 03.00z Sat. So I will keep the likely PoP of some measurable precip that the multi- model consensus forecasts for Srn NH up to the Lakes Region and far SWrn ME. Finally...significant spread exists to the N of the ensemble mean...with very little spread to the S. If guidance were to shift...it would suggest to me a Nwd shift is most likely. At least one of the S/WVs in question has not arrived over land based sampling stations yet...so it may be another 24 hours before model guidance gets a good handle on ingredients. For now I will remain fairly conservative on precip...with less than 0.50 inches QPF total across the NH/MA border. Temps will also be on the mild side at onset...but temps aloft remain fairly cold. With H9 temps -2 to -4C on the 26.12z ECMWF...the most likely scenario would be a wet snow with surface temps possibly at or above freezing. The current forecast calls for light accumulations across Srn NH. If model guidance trends Nwd...that would obviously increase QPF and resulting snow amounts. Though I think it is less likely than a dry forecast or snowier forecast...there is also a small chance that guidance trends warmer and wetter...which could lead to some snow melt/runoff related flooding. Greatest impacts are expected Fri morning at this time...though changes in timing are possible at this range. Regardless of the interior impacts from this system...significant coastal impacts are expected even with a more Sly track. For information about marine interests and coastal flooding see sections below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think bastardi is right for areas over 1500’. Anything lower then that is going to be a real challenge Why? Do you think the column is subfreezing 1500 and up with heavy rates but rain under that? How does that happen and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Why? Do you think the column is subfreezing 1500 and up with heavy rates but rain under that? How does that happen and why? Ya that was my thought too..his reasoning doesn’t make much sense to me either??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Why? Do you think the column is subfreezing 1500 and up with heavy rates but rain under that? How does that happen and why? Are you asking how it snows in the hills and rains in the valleys? What if it's 32F and snowing at 1500ft but 37F and raining at 100ft? Precip intensity will have a lot to do with it but I don't know, you see it all the time in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Why? Do you think the column is subfreezing 1500 and up with heavy rates but rain under that? Nw does that happen and why? There is plenty of cold air aloft but the surface is rather warm. By nature of decreasing temps with height the highest elevations have the best chance of having temps cold enough to support snow. I think of this storm more in line with an early spring, rather then late winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Are you asking how it snows in the hills and rains in the valleys? No. I’m asking why in heavy precipitation it would rain under 1500 feet a a storm tight snow up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Are you asking how it snows in the hills and rains in the valleys? No I don’t think he’s asking that? I think I he’s questioning that if this system really phases and wraps up...the heavy rates will not only be snow for elevated areas...but below those areas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There is plenty of cold air aloft but the surface is rather warm. By nature of decreasing temps with height the highest elevations have the best chance of having temps cold enough to support snow. I think of this storm more in line with an early spring, rather then late winter storm I think if it bombs, there will be no issues in low elevations after a period of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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