JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: With the northward trend, it looks a lot warmer, too. Well yeah...I meant that I like it for Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I see 0.0% chance we see any snow from this down here. High winds and high tides are all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: The euro ensembles look just fine to me. This seems predictable. Bridge jumpers now over op runs. Ensembles aren't moving much. This is going to trend in the amped direction in days coming. Find me more than one person who jumped after 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 10 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: This seems predictable. Bridge jumpers now over op runs. Ensembles aren't moving much. I've seen this referenced a bunch today but who are all these bridge jumpers? I feel like all things considered it's been pretty solid in the forum without anyone melting down or "bridge jumping"....but a lot of people have talking about it like they are everywhere lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Find me more than one person who jumped after 12z After the past few days, you really think people aren't going to overreact to GFS and Euro right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: I've seen this referenced a bunch today but who are all these bridge jumpers? I feel like all things considered it's been pretty solid in the forum without anyone melting down or "bridge jumping"....but a lot of people have talking about it like they are everywhere lol. It’s bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: After the past few days, you really think people aren't going to overreact to GFS and Euro right now? I havent seen anyone jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Find me more than one person who jumped after 12z You beat me too it. I think Ginxy mentioned it at 12z too...like everyone keeps psychoanalyzing stuff that isn't happening or something lol. Its almost like it's this existential being that isn't actually here becomes a bridge jumper when models show an unfavorable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 guys, he was speaking in the hypothetical future tense, even though he clearly wasn't. stop re-writing other people's rewriting of history. 18z gfs looks a little better so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Icon has a pretty nutty solution!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Well yeah...I meant that I like it for Dryslot. Now that is a capture and a thermal bomb ignore the man behind the curtain wowzers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 18z gfs going to be a little more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 18z GFS having a couple xtra dry double martini's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Damn you beat me too it. I think Ginxy mentioned it at 12z too...like everyone keeps psychoanalyzing stuff that isn't happening or something lol. Its almost like it's this existential being becomes a bridge jumper when models show an unfavorable solution. it could be a defense mechanism of their own psychoanalysis which they are afraid to admit, that they themselves feel like jumping. But I dont know, I’m not good at anlyzing other peoples psychosis....only my own. gfs improves now, thats my analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Icon has a pretty nutty solution!! Where do you guys find this stuff? I don't think I've ever seen the ICON model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Where do you guys find this stuff? I don't think I've ever seen the ICON model. TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Meteocentre site has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: it could be a defense mechanism of their own psychoanalysis which they are afraid to admit, that they themselves feel like jumping. But I dont know, I’m not good at anlyzing other peoples psychosis....only my own. gfs improves now, thats my analysis. I've seen multiple people reference negativity in the last few days. I'm not going to sit here and bump the posts. Speaking of psychoanalysis, I didn't refer to anyone directly, but a few of you seem rather defensive. I'll drop the subject now since this is nothing more than a distraction. *while I continue to post this, lol* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Where do you guys find this stuff? I don't think I've ever seen the ICON model. It has been on meteocentre for at least a year, maybe a couple even. They recently added it to tropical tidbits and stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: I've seen multiple people reference negativity in the last few days. I'm not going to sit here and bump the posts. Speaking of psychoanalysis, I didn't refer to anyone directly, but a few of you seem rather defensive. I'll drop the subject now since this is nothing more than a distraction. *while I continue to post this, lol* lol. Yea but negative posts and melts or jumps is a whole different ballgame. we all cant be Ginxy positive with every single model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 SV has it now. What a qpf bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 lol, That 18z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: it could be a defense mechanism of their own psychoanalysis which they are afraid to admit, that they themselves feel like jumping. But I dont know, I’m not good at anlyzing other peoples psychosis....only my own. gfs improves now, thats my analysis. Oooo, I like that. When the perceived momentum is jumping, it makes it easier to jump yourself. Definitely a larger/deeper upper low this GFS run. More support for the phasing differences idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 GFS not impressed again but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 This thread has been hilarious today. I feel like this is the standard mid-range period of burp runs where the threat looks like it's falling apart, persists for a day or two, and then comes roaring back on Wednesday afternoon or something. Happens with all the biggies. Call me crazy but the -PNA, -NAO, remnant ridge and likely latent heat release argue for a closer solution--which by the way is to my detriment here on the coastal plain/CTRV. In fact, just about any solution is to my detriment unless thermals keep ticking cooler. But I'm still more worried this comes farther north and floods us with warm air than the shunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 It actually moves NW from the benchmark on this GFS run. I don't have any specific examples, but it seems we often see this several days away. The models tend to focus too much on the secondary's convection. The central low pressure that develops as the secondary is almost always west of these runs several days out. Pretty much convective feedback, I guess? (I've never fully understood the exact definition of convective feedback, always been shrouded in mystery) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I agree with The Hoth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol. Yea but negative posts and melts or jumps is a whole different ballgame. we all cant be Ginxy positive with every single model run. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Probably could find a member or two of the EPS members to match this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: This thread has been hilarious today. I feel like this is the standard mid-range period of burp runs where the threat looks like it's falling apart, persists for a day or two, and then comes roaring back on Wednesday afternoon or something. Happens with all the biggies. Call me crazy but the -PNA, -NAO, remnant ridge and likely latent heat release argue for a closer solution--which by the way is to my detriment here on the coastal plain/CTRV. In fact, just about any solution is to my detriment unless thermals keep ticking cooler. But I'm still more worried this comes farther north and floods us with warm air than the shunt. Really though, these things have a certain evolution in the long range, then in the mid range that evolution changes again, and then it continues to change until we get within 2-3 days because that's when the models start to have a reasonable amount of skill. It almost never goes back to the "original" solution but that doesn't mean it can't evolve into a better solution again. We always remember the ones that were, but just as many evolve into thin air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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