Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Looks like this thing flat out is missing/lost power period... I don't think the major players are different ... this is a system abatement issue. I'd be checking the initialization monitoring ...although I've noticed they often say things don't effect the model processing either way so not sure how useful those golfers are..heh Anyway, we are sampling this ..in theory, along the WC more readily now; perhaps this was a heretofore over assimilation scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The weaker solutions are SE.. the stronger are north. Safe to say by this look why the op runs went SE. They weaker. Illustrates Will’s point earlier. Can see why you toss the ops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 I think I'm strung out and done with this and getting to where I can honestly say I don't care... This is like the "Scarlet O'Hara" storm .. wore down the patience of her greatest admirer to the point where he irrecoverably couldn't stand the sight of her. Ha... hopefully the WC names it accordingly - that would be awesome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The weaker solutions are SE.. the stronger are north. Safe to say by this look why the op runs went SE. They weaker. Illustrates Will’s point earlier. Can see why you toss the ops Or just consider the ops another member of the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 It may sound weeniesh but with the super - AO/ -NAO one should really hedge in favor of phasing wherever possible. The teleconnections argue for a bowling ball. To my mind, if we have the amped disturbances in the plains ,they phase; similar to yesterday's 12z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: It may sound weeniesh but with the super - AO/ -NAO one should really hedge in favor of phasing wherever possible. The teleconnections argue for a bowling ball. To my mind, if we have the amped disturbances in the plains ,they phase; similar to yesterday's 12z runs... The general correction perhaps ... but one can't discount the case-by-case look of things either. Sometimes anomalies relative to anomalies also take place. In this case... the NAO block, from what I can tell, may as well not even exist for this thing as these runs have it. Particularly the Euro? What a judas run.. It's really disconnecting the NAO from the mid latitude westerlies almost entirely... I'm not here to say that is right or wrong, but if things worked out the way that model's NAO handling has it through Saturday? ... it doesn't surprise me this thing moves so quickly by because there's just plain not much out there to stop it, on this run.. I mean there's more than one thing wrong with this run that is dismantling the previous appeal of this thing.. other guidance too. That with the NAO plus the system it's self appear weaker ..just pallid by comparison. Not sure where those kinematic strengths evaporated.. But, it's weaker, AND, we've lost the blocking influence to slow it down... It's really a couple of back stabs here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think I'm strung out and done with this and getting to where I can honestly say I don't care... This is like the "Scarlet O'Hara" storm .. wore down the patience of her greatest admirer to the point where he irrecoverably couldn't stand the sight of her. Ha... hopefully the WC names it accordingly - that would be awesome.. Whew man Feb 2013 must had you on the edge. think you would know by now this happens a lot more than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The current EPS at hr 96 IMO has a better h5 look than the run 48 hrs ago, with the position of the mean only a few miles E of that run, yet the dynamics of the system have gone caput for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, wxsniss said: Tip... I've been harping on the speed of the southwest shortwave and subsequent phasing with northern stream energy as the most critical variable for days. Lost in all the verbatim model hugging. And also posted yesterday the (not surprising) correlation on individual ensemble members of surface depth with latitude exiting the coast. Not worried by 12z suite. In fact, for SNE, I like where we sit at the moment. All it takes is better timing of southwest shortwave and we are back in business. That phasing happens around 72 hours from now, so plenty of time to fluctuate. Me? okay - A lot gets said by people.. .both whom spend a lot of time, or do 'drive-by-postings' so it's possible I didn't see what you may have contributed. That said, I wouldn't take it personally if no one acknowledged your insights back whence. Must of us presciently dazzle to no one on here from time to time. too many people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like this thing flat out is missing/lost power period... I don't think the major players are different ... this is a system abatement issue. I'd be checking the initialization monitoring ...although I've noticed they often say things don't effect the model processing either way so not sure how useful those golfers are..heh Anyway, we are sampling this ..in theory, along the WC more readily now; perhaps this was a heretofore over assimilation scenario. 0z Eps members had a bunch of whiffs or minor impact events. I’m treating the 12z op as another member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The weaker solutions are SE.. the stronger are north. Safe to say by this look why the op runs went SE. They weaker. Illustrates Will’s point earlier. Can see why you toss the ops Eh, those are pretty SE. I wouldn't call 966 or 972 weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The general correction perhaps ... but one can't discount the case-by-case look of things either. Sometimes anomalies relative to anomalies also take place. In this case... the NAO block, from what I can tell, may as well not even exist for this thing as these runs have it. Particularly the Euro? What a judas run.. It's really disconnecting the NAO from the mid latitude westerlies almost entirely... I'm not here to say that is right or wrong, but if things worked out the way that model's NAO handling has it through Saturday? ... it doesn't surprise me this thing moves so quickly by because there's just plain not much out there to stop it, on this run.. I mean there's more than one thing wrong with this run that is dismantling the previous appeal of this thing.. other guidance too. That with the NAO plus the system it's self appear weaker ..just pallid by comparison. Not sure where those kinematic strengths evaporated.. But, it's weaker, AND, we've lost the blocking influence to slow it down... It's really a couple of back stabs here... I think it's pretty clear that the weakened appeal of the system is directly related to the lack of phasing. The jet maxes don't amp up as much without the phase and then the whole chain reaction down the line of weaker dynamics....fronto/deepening/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 0z Eps members had a bunch of whiffs or minor impact events. I’m treating the 12z op as another member. 0z Eps members had a bunch of whiffs or minor impact events. I’m treating the 12z op as another member. Here is the thing, you can go through all 50 members and find the one to your liking, Bobalouie likes the whiffs, others like the jack. The variance is wide as it usually is at this time frame. I'll Take this one for now, others might like the other kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Here is the thing, you can go through all 50 members and find the one to your liking, Bobalouie likes the whiffs, others like the jack. The variance is wide as it usually is at this time frame. I'll Take this one for now, others might like the other kind At this point, this would be the minimum sized snowstorm I'd get behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 You can always weenie out with ENS members , #40 gives ORH a 3 foot depth by day ten. Not the end all, lets see a tight cluster then we can really start using them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: At this point, this would be the minimum sized I'd get behind your behind? What in the sam hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: At this point, this would be the minimum sized snowstorm I'd get behind. You might as well go for the Gold , who wants a bronze at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Eh, those are pretty SE. I wouldn't call 966 or 972 weak. Would be cool if they all rotated around like a merry go round, circling around a Stalled ULL, developing, maturing, occluding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: You might as well go for the Gold , who wants a bronze at this stage 8-12" not gonna cut it. The other solution was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You might as well go for the Gold , who wants a bronze at this stage It's funny because the weatherbell #s are completely different. It may just be how they are numbering them and where they start off. Because E#40 on weatherbell shows nothing but #41 shows a massive hit. The weather.us site starts off as 1st member but wxbell shows control and #2-51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Other thread. And I believe it was still snowing in SE areas at day 10. oops my bad yes sir, we are the kings of cyber porno snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Bobby move those LR posts to the March outlook stuff sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You can always weenie out with ENS members , #40 gives ORH a 3 foot depth by day ten. Not the end all, lets see a tight cluster then we can really start using them Just if you want to look at QPF output from the different ensembles for the storm, you can get a pretty darn good idea for what they would show. The snow algorithms seem all messed up so hard to go by the snow data. The 50 EPS members storm total precip. Plenty of hits and plenty of whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Just if you want to look at QPF output from the different ensembles for the storm, you can get a pretty darn good idea for what they would show. The snow algorithms seem all messed up so hard to go by the snow data. The 50 EPS members storm total precip. Plenty of hits and plenty of whiffs. Funny that matches my rough numbers in my posts with Chris about the ensemble distribution...I counted about 17 members that give >1" of qpf to pike region, which is about 1/3rd of the ensembles. The other 2/3rds were pretty clustered tightly to the OP on the height spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just if you want to look at QPF output from the different ensembles for the storm, you can get a pretty darn good idea for what they would show. The snow algorithms seem all messed up so hard to go by the snow data. The 50 EPS members storm total precip. Plenty of hits and plenty of whiffs. The deep easterly flow usually has me hedge some precip vs. none. Like you guys in WNW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The deep easterly flow usually has me hedge some precip vs. none. Like you guys in WNW flow. Sds are still impressive on GEFS just dropped -5/6 to -4/5. I don't remember that look and dry like some of those Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The ICON really does suck. Just in case anyone was tempted to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The ICON really does suck. Just in case anyone was tempted to use it. However, I like what it is showing so far this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The euro ensembles look just fine to me. This seems predictable. Bridge jumpers now over op runs. Ensembles aren't moving much. This is going to trend in the amped direction in days coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: However, I like what it is showing so far this run! With the northward trend, it looks a lot warmer, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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