March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the -NAO might be the single most over rated signal we have for winter weather here.

Weve had a stretch of huge storms and great winters without it.

Without this time, you’re enjoying a cutter again. its a give and take, none of these factors are a simple equation.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro gives SWCT the most snow in all of its op runs so we take. a little correction with a stronger earlier phase and we bang.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the -NAO might be the single most over rated signal we have for winter weather here.

Weve had a stretch of huge storms and great winters without it.

We lucked out largely in 2014-2015 with a perfect pacific...2013-2014 to a lesser extent.

'10-'11 and '12-'13 were aided heavily by a -NAO.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Without this time, you’re enjoying a cutter again. its a give and take, none of these factors are a simple equation.

Eh... mine as well cut... it’s probadly going to be rain either way.

My point is, people seem obsessed with the NAO... when we’ve literally done fantastic without it.

I get it can help.. but it’s just another small piece.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the -NAO might be the single most over rated signal we have for winter weather here.

Weve had a stretch of huge storms and great winters without it.

It's has it's advantages so I would not easily dismiss it.  Location and orientation are key components that when placed good can give us some of our biggest events.  In this setup it is less than optimal given that it is more west based and looks to be more N-S oriented. 

[WthrJunkyME]

The longer it trends south, the better my chances of walking out of that snowmobile show Wednesday night with my bank account still intact.  Silver linings. 

 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said:

The longer it trends south, the better my chances of walking out of that snowmobile show Wednesday night with my bank account still intact.  Silver linings. 

 

 

I'm hoping you have to snow check one actually.....................

[OceanStWx]

How's this for silver lining: the new GFS (like the NGGPS/FV3/whatever they're going to call it) is well north of the GFS. Now that's the 00z run to run comparison, and I don't know what the latency is on the parallel run so it's all I have to give you at the moment.

[WthrJunkyME]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I'm hoping you have to snow check one actually.....................

That’s a given from you!

 

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

How's this for silver lining: the new GFS (like the NGGPS/FV3/whatever they're going to call it) is well north of the GFS. Now that's the 00z run to run comparison, and I don't know what the latency is on the parallel run so it's all I have to give you at the moment.

Also, there's always the 7th!

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Also, there's always the 7th!

That was the time frame 7th-8th i mentioned in the other thread, I like that one better.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

How's this for silver lining: the new GFS (like the NGGPS/FV3/whatever they're going to call it) is well north of the GFS. Now that's the 00z run to run comparison, and I don't know what the latency is on the parallel run so it's all I have to give you at the moment.

Glass half empty...

The new GFS performs even worse than the old one.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Glass half empty...

The new GFS performs even worse than the old one.

[WthrJunkyME]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

How's this for silver lining: the new GFS (like the NGGPS/FV3/whatever they're going to call it) is well north of the GFS. Now that's the 00z run to run comparison, and I don't know what the latency is on the parallel run so it's all I have to give you at the moment.

I don’t know if you read previous posts from last night, but it was a real sight to see.  “National Guardian” event, locked in!  I was born a skeptic and even I was drawn into it.  Now that it seems to have jumped rails and hit a forest of oak trees, tough to be hopeful.  I remain hopeful for something though, just the same.  Skeptic weenie that I am!

[wxeyeNH]

56 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think after back to back days of Gene threatening to jump, He may just go this time.

Okay,  I've jumped.  Dusted off.  Not going to happen up here.  I see the Euro has something at day 9 that looks to do something similar. I'll start watching that.  Good luck down there.  Headed this morning down to Manchester NH and saw  bare ground. Nice to see some grass.   I'll take my 70" this season and run with that....   Catcha lata...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can honestly say I'd rather be here, than have a NNE special currently modeled given hemispheric look.

[Go Kart Mozart]

But day 10 is a beauty

[wxsniss]

Tip... I've been harping on the speed of the southwest shortwave and subsequent phasing with northern stream energy as the most critical variable for days. Lost in all the verbatim model hugging.

And also posted yesterday the (not surprising) correlation on individual ensemble members of surface depth with latitude exiting the coast.

Not worried by 12z suite. In fact, for SNE, I like where we sit at the moment. All it takes is better timing of southwest shortwave and we are back in business. That phasing happens around 72 hours from now, so plenty of time to fluctuate.

[ma blizzard]

at this stage I think we just want to see the Euro ensembles mimic the GEFS with some spread to the n/w of the ensemble mean .. have a good feeling this will all start to trend "back" once we have better upper air sampling for many of the aforementioned reasons in this thread. 

But by all means continue the bridge jumping, melt downs and reverse psychology shenanigans .. its like clockwork - once the meltdowns start you see modeling improvements

[Ginx snewx]

#neverforget

forecasting the blizzard in advance was more difficult than usual, as typically hints of a major storm show up on the model guidance at least more than a week in advance, but in this case there was no model showing a significant storm until only 120-144 hours (5-6 days) out, when the 2/3 0z ECMWF run showed a major nor’easter tracking over NYC and Boston with heavy rain for the coast and a major snowstorm inland. At that time, the ECM was the only model suggesting such an outcome; the rest of the models as well as prior ECM runs were in agreement with showing a weak clipper tracking from the Midwest into the Northeast with 1-3 inches of snow in central-northern New England, with no sign of a coastal low pressure to the south.

Through the rest of the 2/3 and 2/4 runs, the ECM remained the only model to show a major nor’easter, although it gradually trended further southeast with each run, at one point showing the blizzard conditions limited to southeastern New England and eastern Long Island while the rest of the region saw less snowfall. The ECM ensembles, which originally supported the operational ECM runs with the major nor’easter, also gradually trended southeast to show a weak and progressive coastal low. Meanwhile, the rest of the model guidance continued to show a dominant northern stream system with a weak and fast moving low pressure producing 3-6 inches of snow in the central-northern Northeast and light rain in the NYC area. The 2/4 evening runs, only 90 hours away from the storm when typically a significant storm would have more solid model support, began to show a weak coastal low, but kept both northern and southern streams separate, with a clipper quickly moving through the Northeast and the coastal low staying offshore.

Short Range: The rest of the model guidance did not begin to trend to a major nor’easter until the afternoon runs on 2/5, only 78-84 hours away from the storm, and even then was still inconsistent with the scenario. The 2/5 12z run of the GFS was the first to show a major coastal storm, showing a moderate rain/snow storm for the area and heavy snow in SE Massachusetts. The CMC also began to show a strong coastal low around that time, but was still too progressive, showing a quick moderate snow event in the interior Northeast and light-moderate rain for the NYC area. The ECM remained mostly consistent with its scenario of a major snowstorm while the ensemble mean also trended back to a similar output, showing Connecticut into Rhode Island and Massachusetts under the heaviest snow.

The 2/6 and 2/7 runs, only 1-2 days prior to the storm, continued the theme of model inconsistencies aside from the ECM, which remained the most consistent and accurate model. While some runs of the ECM were a little too far east and north with the heavy snow axis, it performed the best out of the model guidance, especially in the medium range when it was the only model to correctly depict a major coastal storm despite no support from other models and even its ensemble mean at one point. The GFS’ depiction of a major snowstorm was short lived, as most of its 2/6 runs were too far east, too weak and too warm with the coastal low, showing a rain to light-moderate snow event for the area with the major snowfall from the coastal low limited to southeast Massachusetts. Its 2/6 18z run was the most accurate, showing heavy snow over central Long Island and CT into Boston, but the rest of the 2/7 runs, only 1 day before the storm, were too far east with the coastal low, keeping the deformation band (which in reality was over central CT into Maine) offshore, barely clipping coastal New England, with a moderate to locally heavy snow event. The runs on the day of the storm, 2/8, were also too far southeast, with 4 to 8 inches of snow in NYC/northern NJ and 8 to 14 inches of snow in southern New England. The CMC and UKMET also had a similar issue with temperatures too warm and keeping the heaviest snow offshore, with the CMC showing a mostly rain event for NYC prior to the 2/7 12z run. The UKMET also showed a relatively insignificant event across the region with its 2/7 runs, depicting the coastal low too far southeast.

[CoastalWx]

 It could be just the spread, but the ensembles continue to look better in the euro department 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

at this stage I think we just want to see the Euro ensembles mimic the GEFS with some spread to the n/w of the ensemble mean .. have a good feeling this will all start to trend "back" once we have better upper air sampling for many of the aforementioned reasons in this thread. 

But by all means continue the bridge jumping, melt downs and reverse psychology shenanigans .. its like clockwork - once the meltdowns start you see modeling improvements

Euro ensembles show the same theme as GEFS...you have a tight cluster near and just southeast of the OP run, but then a huge spread to the north and northwest....

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles show the same theme as GEFS...you have a tight cluster near and just southeast of the OP run, but then a huge spread to the north and northwest....

 

 

When are you expecting the op runs to come back north? Will it be 00z or maybe 12z tomorrow?

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When are you expecting the op runs to come back north? Will it be 00z or maybe 12z tomorrow?

lol you are relentless from one post of Will's that he thought it could come back north.

Now we want people to predict what the models will show in upcoming runs?

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When are you expecting the op runs to come back north? Will it be 00z or maybe 12z tomorrow?

Probably one of those two...given the lack of spread to the southeast. The ensembles don't tell everything...the whole thing could keep going southeast even if the ensembles argue otherwise. We've seen it happen before, but you'd play the odds of it coming back north. The ensembles are basically telling us at the OP run is in the cluster of runs that is pretty far SE and then you have a bunch that are northwest to wildly varying degrees. So it's unlikely we will see more movement to the south/southeast on subsequent runs.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

lol you are relentless from one post of Will's that he thought it could come back north.

Now we want people to predict what the models will show in upcoming runs?

What?

He just answered my question 

[TalcottWx]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 It could be just the spread, but the ensembles continue to look better in the euro department 

Seen this show before

[Ginx snewx]

0z and 12 Z EPS are virtually identical, later deep phase than 2 days ago but not a bad look at this stage. Want to see things slow down and phase earlier.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably one of those two...given the lack of spread to the southeast. The ensembles don't tell everything...the whole thing could keep going southeast even if the ensembles argue otherwise. We've seen it happen before, but you'd play the odds of it coming back north. The ensembles are basically telling us at the OP run is in the cluster of runs that is pretty far SE and then you have a bunch that are northwest to wildly varying degrees. So it's unlikely we will see more movement to the south/southeast on subsequent runs.

It's probably a difference of phases. If you miss the phase you get something near the mean, and varying degrees of phasing give you scattershot solutions to the north.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's probably a difference of phases. If you miss the phase you get something near the mean, and varying degrees of phasing give you scattershot solutions to the north.

Yeah it's like 60-70% of the runs are pretty close to the OP and then you have maybe 30% that are northwest. Very few are appreciably less amplified than the OP...the whole thing makes the mean a little better than the OP (esp for qpf queens) but the distribution tail is extra long for the northwest outcomes and very short for SE outcomes.

 

What's interesting is that the ensembles on the other globals are doing the exact same thing...majority cluster near the OP and then maybe like 1/3rd of them northwest. Only a few rogues that are well SE. This is a good hedge that NW jogs are prob in our future, but we have the wrench of the main ULL coming ashore tomorrow morning too...so we'll see what that does. I do feel like the decaying SE ridge and the block make a phase a little more likely too...sort of forcing those two streams into a smaller zone.