March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

[dryslot]

I think after back to back days of Gene threatening to jump, He may just go this time.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna be some classic melts over the next 30 minutes . Prepare 

You are going to have more than one?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Only the snow weenies will melt.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

You are going to have more than one?

Lol...not bad.

 

The backside of the trough is trying to phase in pretty hard at 78 hours, so we'll see if the Euro goes for a late recovery...or at least gives it the ol' college try.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think after back to back days of Gene threatening to jump, He may just go this time.

Need to get the drone chasing after him.

[dryslot]

I may have to start rooting for that northern stream s/w out ahead of the southern stream s/w one to go more south.

[CT Valley Snowman]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noticeable you left out NE hills with elevations 600-1200’

My bad.  Consider yourself lumped in with the Hilly Central areas statement and a southern extension of ORH.  Hopefully this isn't turning into weak sauce but too early to latch onto 12z Monday as a certainty, the models could very easily bump back north. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

You are going to have more than one?

You’re already gone. Ray and Will are near the edge . I’m sure others are right there 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re already gone. Ray and Will are near the edge . I’m sure others are right there 

Actually, I just started looking at it seriously.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Definitely not as amplified as yesterdays 12z run.

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Definitely not as amplified as yesterdays 12z run.

Or 0z for that matter.

[ORH_wxman]

Final result is quite similar to other 12z guidance...so not a surprise overall given what we already saw. We will clearly want some earlier phasing on future runs. This one actually looked pretty bad early on and then made a good attempt at the last minute to come together. If we hadn't already seen a couple 20-30" runs for the interior, I think many would be fine with that solution 100 hours out.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Final result is quite similar to other 12z guidance...so not a surprise overall given what we already saw. We will clearly want some earlier phasing on future runs. This one actually looked pretty bad early on and then made a good attempt at the last minute to come together. If we hadn't already seen a couple 20-30" runs for the interior, I think many would be fine with that solution 100 hours out.

And from what I can tell, it's that northern streamer diving south that's creating this "suppressed" solution.

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Final result is quite similar to other 12z guidance...so not a surprise overall given what we already saw. We will clearly want some earlier phasing on future runs. This one actually looked pretty bad early on and then made a good attempt at the last minute to come together. If we hadn't already seen a couple 20-30" runs for the interior, I think many would be fine with that solution 100 hours out.

Yeah plenty of room (and time) to come north a bit. 

[Bostonseminole]

Winter is pretty much done for me if this systems does not work out.  Heading to San Diego on 3/5 - 3/9 was hoping to catch something before I left, have not kept up with the longer term, will read the model thread and see if there is any hope.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Final result is quite similar to other 12z guidance...so not a surprise overall given what we already saw. We will clearly want some earlier phasing on future runs. This one actually looked pretty bad early on and then made a good attempt at the last minute to come together. If we hadn't already seen a couple 20-30" runs for the interior, I think many would be fine with that solution 100 hours out.

That's the problem with seeing the big runs out at Day 5-7.

If we looked at that Euro run after seeing 3 days of it bombing off Virginia Beach, people would be getting excited that it's coming closer and is only a step or two away from something big.  

[CoolMike]

Yeah this one looks interesting to me.  I haven't seen a storm get captured like that in a few years.  

[weathafella]

 

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

That's the problem with seeing the big runs out at Day 5-7.

If we looked at that Euro run after seeing 3 days of it bombing off Virginia Beach, people would be getting excited that it's coming closer and is only a step or two away from something big.  

If folks expected to see multiple KU runs at day 6 in shame on them.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If folks expected to see multiple KU runs at day 6 in shame on them.

I have desires that I am far more ashamed of than that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If folks expected to see multiple KU runs at day 6 in shame on them.

Its happens more than you think.

Ignorance is bliss.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah plenty of room (and time) to come north a bit. 

Run is fine at this lead....unfortunate trend, but easily reversible.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's the problem with seeing the big runs out at Day 5-7.

If we looked at that Euro run after seeing 3 days of it bombing off Virginia Beach, people would be getting excited that it's coming closer and is only a step or two away from something big.  

People have to remember this is not even in NAM clown range yet...we've been tracking this since like day 9...and to be honest, it's been pretty darn consistent when you take into account how far out we were when it first appeared. This type of movement is totally normal at day 4-5.

 

Now, that doesn't mean it's definitely coming back north, but I'd put the odds at greater than 50/50 because of factors already mentioned today. We have a decaying SE ridge which makes it harder to dig straight ESE, we have ensemble spread mostly to the northwest (clear on the charts posted already), and finally we have a western trough which will tend to want to pump things up. There's the block that's trying to counter all of that, but it can only do so much. As a bonus, how often do we see these vigorous shortwaves come north once better sampled? That seems to happen a lot too.

[78Blizzard]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro will most likely be almost a complete whiff . That will really push folks off deep end . But buyers are buying Will’s correction north 

Nice call.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

People have to remember this is not even in NAM clown range yet...we've been tracking this since like day 9...and to be honest, it's been pretty darn consistent when you take into account how far out we were when it first appeared. This type of movement is totally normal at day 4-5.

 

Now, that doesn't mean it's definitely coming back north, but I'd put the odds at greater than 50/50 because of factors already mentioned today. We have a decaying SE ridge which makes it harder to dig straight ESE, we have ensemble spread mostly to the northwest (clear on the charts posted already), and finally we have a western trough which will tend to want to pump things up. There's the block that's trying to counter all of that, but it can only do so much.

We'll have a convective monkey wrench too, which is nearly a complete wild card until it gets going.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

People have to remember this is not even in NAM clown range yet...we've been tracking this since like day 9...and to be honest, it's been pretty darn consistent when you take into account how far out we were when it first appeared. This type of movement is totally normal at day 4-5.

 

Now, that doesn't mean it's definitely coming back north, but I'd put the odds at greater than 50/50 because of factors already mentioned today. We have a decaying SE ridge which makes it harder to dig straight ESE, we have ensemble spread mostly to the northwest (clear on the charts posted already), and finally we have a western trough which will tend to want to pump things up. There's the block that's trying to counter all of that, but it can only do so much.

Yea, in the grand scheme it was relatively stable. Still say the RNA/NAO block couplet will congeal this mess. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Awfully dry Euro.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I think the -NAO might be the single most over rated signal we have for winter weather here.

Weve had a stretch of huge storms and great winters without it.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, in the grand scheme it was relatively stable. Still say the RNA/NAO block couplet will congeal this mess. 

The DNA block will have something to say about it though.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

We'll have a convective monkey wrench too, which is nearly a complete wild card until it gets going.

Yeah that too. And it often helps get things north...esp this time of year when we can fire a lot of convection down in the southeast in the warm sector and start pumping the downstream heights a bit.

 

So while today's trends were a bit discouraging, they should be taken in context of all other factors...most importantly the lead time. There's a lot of time.